Watch This Level: Initial Jobless Claims Inching Up

Initial Claims for unemployment inched up in the latest week to 221,000. The number had been stuck for quite a while around the 210,000 level. In the last year, claims have remained at or below 225,000. This gives investors a very good level to watch.

Should we see initial claims spike above 225,000, it would be viewed as a breakout, a negative for economic growth and possibly a signal of recession.

The chart above shows this clearly, note the trend line in red. Should claims jump above 225,000, the next stop would be 250,000. If that breaks, 300,000. Generally, 300,000 or more filings for unemployment a week would signal recession.