Rivian Tests Its Two-Year Channel Floor for a Sixth Time Ahead of Earnings

Rivian (RIVN) has fallen nearly straight down since August, sliding from roughly $17 to $13.75. On its own, that looks like a stock in trouble. On the chart, it looks like something more specific: price returning to the lower boundary of a parallel channel that has contained it since April 2024.

That boundary has now been tested five times, and each test produced a bounce. Today marks the sixth. With the daily RSI near oversold and earnings scheduled for October 29, the setup has a defined level, a defined catalyst, and a defined upside target.

The core point is this: a sixth touch of a long-term channel is not an automatic buy. The more useful question is how price is likely to behave around that level, and where a reaction could reasonably carry it.

Why the Sixth Test Is Different From the First

Repeated tests of support do two things at once. They confirm that the level matters to buyers, and they gradually wear it down. Each visit absorbs more of the demand sitting at that price.

That is why Drew Dosek reads this test as roughly a coin flip, with a slight lean toward a break. Drew slightly favors a modest pierce below the channel floor, with price potentially touching the $13.51 area before buyers step back in.

That distinction matters. Buying the exact line on a sixth test invites getting shaken out by a brief undercut. Accounting for a possible undercut helps traders avoid treating a brief break of support as an automatic failure.

Momentum and the Earnings Catalyst

The daily RSI sits at 31.85, approaching the traditional oversold threshold of 30. That reinforces the view that Rivian may be due for a near-term bounce, although oversold conditions alone do not confirm a reversal.

The timing ahead of earnings adds another variable. When a stock sells off sharply into a report, positive news can provide the catalyst for a relief rally. With Rivian already at long-term support, a favorable reaction to the October 29 report could reinforce the technical bounce setup.

Where a Bounce Could Travel

Drawing trend lines from prior pivots produces a convergence zone overhead, an "X marks the spot" where several lines meet. Price has a history of reacting at these lines, sometimes piercing them briefly but responding to them all the same.

That convergence sits in the $15.53 to $15.75 range. If Rivian holds near the bottom of its channel, either at current levels or after a brief dip toward $13.51, that zone is the logical near-term destination, roughly 13 to 14 percent above $13.75.

SharkNinja Approaches $200 With Momentum Diverging

SharkNinja (SN) offers the mirror image of Rivian. Instead of oversold price at long-term support, it is pushing into resistance with weakening momentum.

Shares rose 3.88% today into a double top near the all-time high around $194. The daily RSI, however, has been declining even as price returned to those highs. That bearish divergence suggests the buying behind the advance is thinning.

If price does clear the all-time high, it may not travel far. The top of the rising parallel channel sits at $199.55, just below the psychological $200 level, an area likely to draw profit taking. A rejection there could send price back toward the $184 to $185 range.

Two More Charts Worth Preparing For

Onto Innovation (ONTO) carries a $1.1 billion backlog, but the chart has struggled since a weekly topping tail in June. A declining trend line has capped every attempt higher since, and the next test is roughly 50/50. Near term, an inclining trend line connecting the July 29 and September 3 lows produced a bounce today. If that shelf gives way, layered support sits at $256.41 (the bottom of the parallel) and $247.30, near the round $250 level. Drew views that zone as a potentially stronger area for a bounce and a better base for the next attempt at the declining trend line.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has broken the uptrend that carried it higher since its summer low. One close below the trend line is a warning; a second would confirm the near-term trend has turned. Drew's view is that the violation warrants exiting an existing position rather than waiting for a deeper decline. He is watching the gap fill at $36.85, just beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, as an area to reassess the chart for a short-term bounce back toward the broken trend line. SMCI moves quickly once momentum builds, so this one requires close attention.

Key Levels to Monitor

What to Watch: Process Over Prediction

For Rivian, the next few sessions decide the setup. A brief dip toward $13.51 followed by a recovery back inside the channel would keep the bounce thesis intact. A sustained move well below that level would signal that the sixth test finally exhausted the buyers, invalidating the channel and the $15.53 to $15.75 target. Holding the channel floor into earnings would keep the bounce scenario in play.

Step back, and the four charts sit at different stages. Rivian is testing support, SharkNinja is approaching resistance, Onto is balancing between competing trend lines, and Super Micro has already broken a key level. The approach is the same for each: identify the level, understand the likely reaction, and wait for price to confirm the setup. The opportunity is not simply knowing where a stock might turn. It is recognizing when the chart begins to support that turn.