My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 07/08/2026: Oil Surge, S&P Trendline Test and Semiconductor Crash Warning

Oil, Yields, and the S&P Line in the Sand: Gareth’s Game Plan After the Iran Shock

Geopolitical headlines drove the overnight volatility, but Gareth Soloway’s read from this morning’s My Trading Game Plan Revealed was not built around the headline. It was built around the levels.

That was the main point of the session. Oil did not suddenly become important because the news changed. It was already sitting on a major gap-fill level. The S&P 500 is not important because futures sold off overnight. It is important because price is retesting a multi-year breakout line. Under the surface, yields, USD/JPY, and semiconductor weakness are the signals that decide whether this remains a contained headline reaction or becomes a broader market shift.

The market is not reacting to only one thing. It is testing a framework.

Oil Was the Headline, but the Gap Fill Was the Signal

The cleanest example came from crude oil.

Gareth pointed back to the gap-fill level he had identified days earlier. That level triggered before the latest escalation in the Middle East, and oil has now gained roughly 10% in two days.

The lesson is not that technical analysis predicts the news. The lesson is that charts often identify where large buyers are likely waiting before the catalyst arrives. In this case, oil had already filled the gap. Once price reacted from that level, the headline added speed to a move that the chart had already made possible.

That is why Gareth keeps coming back to the same process: strip away the narrative, find the level, and let price confirm or reject it.

Oil at $75 is not yet the biggest immediate risk for equities. Sustained oil near $80 to $85 would be a different story because it could keep inflation pressure alive and limit the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates. For now, the more important read is that oil respected a technical level before the news gave the move a reason.

The S&P 500 Is Testing the Breakout

The level that matters most for the broader market is still the S&P 500’s multi-year breakout line.

Gareth is tracking the trendline that connects the 2021 into 2022 bull market high with the later major highs, including the 2025 pivot. The S&P recently broke above that structure. Now it is testing whether old resistance can hold as new support.

That is the decision point.

The line in the sand is the 7,315 area. Price has tested that zone twice and held. A third test matters because failed breakouts can change the structure fast. A daily close below that trendline would tell Gareth the breakout has failed, shifting the roadmap toward 7,000 first, then the major gap fill near 6,600 if selling expands.

That is the difference between normal volatility and structural damage. Holding the breakout keeps the bull case alive. Losing it turns the prior breakout into a trap.

QQQ Has Not Done the Same Work Yet

The NASDAQ 100 has a different setup.

QQQ has its own major trendline from the 2021 high through the October 2025 pivot, but unlike the S&P 500, it has not fully retested that line. Gareth’s explanation was straightforward: semiconductors kept the index elevated longer than the broader market.

That support is now starting to weaken.

The shorter-term QQQ trendline has held multiple times over the past week and a half. A daily close below that immediate support would open the door to a move toward 675. That is the level Gareth is watching if tech leadership starts to break down.

The important part is not just QQQ itself. It is what a break would say about semiconductor leadership. If the group that held the market up starts losing structure, the broader tape has less room for error.

The Bigger Risk Is Yields and USD/JPY

The headline focus is oil, but Gareth’s bigger near-term concern is the bond and currency market.

The 10-year Treasury yield has moved from 4.36% to 4.56% in roughly a week. That is a meaningful move. If yields continue toward the 4.7% area, high-multiple technology stocks become more vulnerable because valuation pressure increases as rates rise.

USD/JPY is the other major warning signal.

The pair is climbing again after pulling back from a major pivot. Gareth is watching it because USD/JPY sits at the center of the yen carry trade. When that trade unwinds quickly, it can force selling across risk assets. The August 2024 correction was the reminder. The NASDAQ fell roughly 15% in two weeks during that unwind.

That is why Gareth is not treating this as just an oil story. Oil matters, but yields and USD/JPY may matter more if they keep moving in the wrong direction.

Semiconductors Are Bounce Setups, Not Long-Term Safety

Semiconductors remain the battleground.

Gareth is not ignoring potential bounces. In fact, some of the cleanest short-term levels are in the chip names. But he separated the trade from the investment view.

Applied Materials is sitting above a major gap fill near the $500 psychological level. That confluence could create a technical reaction if price flushes into the zone.

Micron has already broken down and put in a major pivot top. Gareth is watching the $814 to $750 zone, where a prior pivot and gap fill create the next major area for a potential bounce.

Sandisk has a similar setup. After the recent breakdown, the $1,185 area stands out because it aligns with a gap fill, the origin of the prior blow-off move, and a key retracement zone.

Those are reaction zones, not long-term endorsements. Gareth’s larger warning remains that many of these semiconductor charts could face far deeper corrections over the next 12 months. That makes the framework very clear: respect the bounce levels, but do not confuse a technical reaction with a repaired long-term structure.

Delta Showed Why Intermarket Confirmation Matters

Gareth also used Delta Airlines as an example of stacking probabilities.

The chart was already extended. Price had rallied into a broken support trendline that had flipped into resistance. At the same time, oil was sitting on a major gap-fill support level with a high probability of bouncing.

That combination created the setup.

The logic was simple: if Delta is stretched into resistance and oil is positioned to bounce, airline stocks face pressure from both the chart and the input cost. That is the kind of intermarket confirmation Gareth looks for. It is not one signal in isolation. It is multiple markets pointing in the same direction.

Other Levels on Gareth’s Radar

A few additional levels stood out from the session.

Walmart is pulling back after forming a bearish inside bar. The $100 area is the level Gareth is watching because it lines up with a gap fill, a major round number, and longer-term trendline support.

Oracle is already deeply oversold. The $137 to $135 zone is the key support area, with a filled gap and double-bottom pivot sitting in the same region.

Alibaba and other beaten-down Chinese names are catching a bid after positive regulatory news. For Gareth, that move fits the same idea: deeply discounted charts can snap back when the technical setup and catalyst align.

Gold is not confirming the geopolitical fear trade yet. Despite the headlines, it failed to reach the upper end of resistance and is now testing support below $4,000. A break there would shift focus toward $3,600 to $3,500.

Silver is acting cleaner technically. It broke prior pivot support, retested that old support as resistance, and is now moving away from it. That is the structure Gareth wants traders to recognize: old support becoming new resistance.

Bitcoin is still a patience setup. Gareth sees the possibility of an inverse head and shoulders, but the pattern has not triggered. The right shoulder has to form, and price has to break the neckline. Until then, it is only potential. If Bitcoin fails and takes out the recent lows, the downside level remains $50,000.

Bottom Line

Gareth’s message was not to chase the headline. It was to let the chart decide whether the headline matters.

Oil worked because the gap fill was already there. The S&P 500 matters because it is testing the breakout line. QQQ matters because semiconductor strength is weakening. Yields and USD/JPY matter because they can pressure risk assets even if the oil move stays contained.

The framework is simple: hold the S&P breakout and the market can absorb the shock. Lose it, especially with yields and USD/JPY rising, and the move becomes more than headline volatility.

That is the difference between reacting emotionally and trading the roadmap.