Trading The Close Market Recap - 02/12/2026: AI Disruption Hits Transportation; DJT Plunges as SPX & NDX Test Key Trendlines

The markets greeted Pro Trader Drew Dosek’s return to the Trading The Close with a volatile session defined by a massive repricing in the transportation sector. In today’s revamped show format, designed to cut through the noise and deliver high-impact analysis of the day’s biggest stories, the focus shifted immediately to the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) and the ripple effects of artificial intelligence on logistics.

While the broader markets finished lower, the underlying story was one of disruption. From the breakdown in legacy shipping giants to critical inflection points in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, the technical landscape is shifting rapidly. Below, we expand on the key themes, specific price levels, and strategic insights Pro Trader Drew outlined in this afternoon’s broadcast.

The AI Disruption: A Paradigm Shift in Transportation

The headline story of the day was not just a market decline, but a fundamental shift in the transportation sector triggered by news from Algorhythm Holdings (RIME). The company announced that its semi-cab unit successfully boosted customer freight by 300% without any corresponding increase in operational headcount. This revelation—that AI can drastically increase efficiency while capping labor costs—sent shockwaves through the industry.

Pro Trader Drew identified this early in the day, noting a "daily topping tail" on the DJT during his morning game plan. By the close, the implications were clear: the sector is being repriced.

"If transportation is under pressure, the economy is also likely going to be under pressure."

This axiom holds true because the transportation index acts as a leading indicator for the broader economy. It represents the physical movement of goods, construction supplies, and retail inventory. However, today’s move suggests a nuance: we are witnessing a divergence where AI-enabled efficiency may undercut traditional logistics models. The "mammoth candle" on the DJT chart signifies a potential long-term disruption, suggesting that legacy carriers must pivot to AI integration or face continued bearish pressure.

C.H. Robinson (CHRW): Technical Damage

The impact of this disruption was most visible in C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), which suffered a catastrophic technical breakdown. The stock plummeted 14.54%, a move that effectively erased all gains made in January and pushed price action back to December levels.

From a technical perspective, erasing a month’s worth of buying in a single session creates a "mammoth blow" to the chart structure. It leaves a heavy supply of overhead resistance from trapped buyers. Traders looking for the floor in this falling knife should observe the next support level at $143.96. Below that, a support zone exists between $130 and $133.

JB Hunt: The Air Pocket Effect

JB Hunt also fell victim to the sector-wide selloff, dropping 5.06%. The technical setup here is a classic failed breakout; price action briefly surpassed a "triple top" pattern only to plunge back beneath it—a bearish signal often referred to as a "look above and fail."

Pro Trader Drew highlighted a critical concept regarding rapid ascents: "Whenever you have a quick pop like this in the markets, it creates a big air pocket where price is likely going to come right back down into."

Because JB Hunt rallied over 78% from its September lows of $131, the lack of structural support on the way up means there is little to stop the price on the way down. The first major test for the bulls will be at $205.53. If selling pressure persists, the crucial trendline support sits at $200. A break of that psychological and technical barrier could open the door for a slide down to $172.11.

Major Indices: The Line in the Sand

The broader equity markets are testing the resolve of the bulls. The S&P 500 (SPX) finished the day down 1.57%, retreating to a precarious technical position.

For traders navigating this volatility, the "line in the sand" is the inclining trendline connecting the pivot lows from December 17th and February 5th. On the SPX, this critical support level sits at 6,790 points. This is a binary decision point for the market: hold this line, and the uptrend remains intact; break it, and the probabilities shift drastically toward a retest of the November pivot lows.

A similar structure is visible on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). The make-or-break level for the tech-heavy index is 24,515 points. As Pro Trader Drew warned:

"If we start trading underneath that, guys, watch out. Probabilities will start to shift for price action to go down rather than go up on the chart."

The Semiconductor Warning (SMH)

Alongside transportation, the semiconductor sector (SMH) serves as a vital leading indicator for market health. Today’s "mammoth red candle" in the SMH confirms the weakness seen in the broader indices.

Interestingly, this move was anticipated. Pro Trader Drew noted this was a "sleeper hold setup"—a specific pattern taught in the Mastering the Overnight Trade course. Recognizing these patterns allows traders to anticipate moves before they occur rather than reacting to them. The SMH is now approaching support at the 50% parallel line at 402.86. If that level fails to hold, the next downside target is the inclining trendline near $379.49.

Bitcoin and Coinbase: Navigating the Crypto Correction

The cryptocurrency markets have been under significant pressure, with Bitcoin breaking a key inclining trendline that had previously supported its ascent. This technical breakdown shifted the probabilities toward further downside, which is exactly what played out. However, volume analysis suggests a temporary reprieve may be on the horizon.

The heavy volume observed on February 5th and 6th indicates a battle between buyers and sellers, often a precursor to a near-term bounce. While the macro technical target remains the 200-week moving average—currently sitting at the bottom of the parallel channel at $58,213—market mechanics rarely allow for a straight line down.

Pro Trader Drew anticipates a bounce before that ultimate low is tested. If buyers step in, Bitcoin could push back toward resistance at $83,000. This would serve as a relief rally within a broader corrective phase.

Coinbase: A Deep Value Opportunity?

The selling in Bitcoin has dragged Coinbase down significantly. The stock is now down 65% from its October 10th high, creating a deeply oversold condition with an RSI of 23.21.

While the immediate trend is bearish, the severity of the drop suggests a snap-back rally could occur, potentially targeting the breakdown area at $189.24. However, for patient investors looking for high-probability entries, the chart presents a "history repeats" setup.

Pro Trader Drew highlighted a specific trendline behavior: "This is a very significant level, one that's been played many times and a lot of investors are going to highlight and look at this, wait for price to get into it and then be buyers."

This refers to the level where price previously acted as resistance, broke through, and then acted as support. Extending that trendline out identifies a major support zone at $116.30. If Coinbase continues its plunge, this level represents a high-conviction area for a potential reversal.

Commodities: Bear Flags and Breakdowns

The commodities complex offered little refuge from the selling pressure today, with Gold, Silver, and Oil all posting declines.

Gold's Double Rejection

Gold finished down 3%, suffering what Pro Trader Drew called a "double whammy." Not only did it face rejection after a period of bullish consolidation, but it also closed beneath two critical technical levels: the 50% parallel line and the inclining trendline dating back to April 2025.

This technical damage implies a continuation of the move lower. If the selling pressure persists, Gold is likely to drift toward the bottom of its channel, with a target price of approximately $4,717.

Silver's Bear Flag

Silver experienced an even more dramatic decline, dropping over 10%. The chart is currently forming a "beautiful bear flag pattern," a continuation pattern that suggests the path of least resistance remains lower.

Traders looking for a bottom should keep their eyes on the inclining trendline stemming from the August 2025 pivot. While a previous low pivot tagged the $64.20 range, the trajectory of the trendline suggests a potential intercept around April 1st at approximately $60.65. This confluence of time and price could offer a significant buying opportunity for a bounce.

US Oil: The Coil Tightens

US Oil dropped 3% but remains in a constructive technical posture relative to precious metals. Following a breakout, oil is currently retesting a declining trendline in a consolidation phase. This "winding of the coil" often precedes a resumption of the uptrend.

For the bullish case to hold, price must stay above the breakout point at $62. If it does, the probabilities favor a move toward the next resistance target at $68.94. A close below $62 would invalidate the breakout and signal a failed move.

Earnings Volatility: The Gravity of Price

Earnings season continues to provide extreme volatility, offering lessons in market psychology and technical discipline. Two stocks, APP and Fastly (FSLY), illustrated divergent reactions today.

APP: The "Sell the News" Event

Despite reporting a "double beat" on earnings, APP faced prolonged selling pressure, closing down at $366.91. This counter-intuitive move underscores the importance of technical positioning over headline numbers.

The stock is currently hovering near support at $364.50. If this level holds, a bounce toward $449.06 is possible. However, traders should exercise caution. The drop has been sharp—occurring over just three days—and momentum could easily pierce this support level. A deeper correction could see APP test $317.15, which would present a more attractive risk/reward entry for a swing trade.

Fastly (FSLY): The Rocket Ship

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Fastly delivered a stunning performance, with EPS up 116% and revenue up 7%. The stock exploded higher, rallying over 90% intraday before settling with a 72% gain.

Price action pierced the resistance at the inclining trendline and tagged $17.76 before pulling back. While the momentum is undeniable, chasing a stock after a 90% move is a dangerous game.

"Stocks do have gravity that affects them. They will go up, they will come down, [and] provide other opportunities to get in."

For traders who missed the initial move, patience is key. Pullbacks to support levels at $14.04 or $12.86 would offer safer entry points to play a resumption of the trend. If FSLY can clear the $17.76 resistance, the next major target is $21.33.

Conclusion: Adapting to the New Market Rhythm

Today’s session was a reminder that markets are dynamic ecosystems. The introduction of AI into the transportation sector is not just a news headline; it is a catalyst for repricing an entire industry. Similarly, the technical breakdowns in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 at key trendlines serve as early warning systems for portfolio management.

By focusing on the "story of the day" and eliminating redundancy, the new format of Trading The Close aims to equip traders with actionable, high-impact data. Whether it is identifying the "sleeper hold" on the SMH or waiting for the "air pocket" to fill in JB Hunt, success in this environment requires technical precision and the patience to let price come to your levels.

As we move toward the weekend, keep a close watch on the 6,790 level on the SPX and the 24,515 level on the NDX. These are the gatekeepers for the next leg of market direction. Until next week, study the charts, respect the risk, and trade the probabilities.