Crude Oil Presses Against $98 Resistance as Inverse Head and Shoulders Points Toward $116

U.S. crude oil has spent four consecutive trading sessions pressing into the same price: $98.01, the pivot high set on September 18, 2026. Four consecutive sessions testing the same resistance level suggest buyers are continuing to challenge sellers at $98.01.

Tuesday's session showed why that matters. In Drew Dosek's account of the day's headlines, reports out of Pakistan suggested there could be a path toward a peace deal involving the Strait of Hormuz, and oil sold off on the initial news. Drew noted that most other reports he heard conflicted with that optimism, including accounts of 24 tankers attacked, and crude bounced straight back to its declining trend line. Price moved up and down through that line for the rest of the day and settled right on it, leaving wicks on both the top and bottom of the daily candle.

The headlines are generating volatility. The chart is generating the signal. As long as crude holds above the declining neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, probabilities favor continuation toward a measured-move target of $116.

WTI Crude Oil Tests Key Resistance at $98.01

Two technical references define the current setup, and it helps to keep them separate. The declining neckline of the inverse head and shoulders is the line in the sand for the bullish pattern. The horizontal level at $98.01, the September 18 pivot high, is the immediate resistance crude must work through.

The declining neckline remains the key level for preserving the bullish pattern. Meanwhile, $98.01 is the immediate horizontal resistance that crude must overcome to strengthen the case for a move toward $104.14, followed by $108.26 and ultimately the $116 measured-move target.

The two-sided wicks on the latest daily candle reflect how contested this area is. The recovery after the initial headline-driven selloff suggests buyers remain willing to defend the developing bullish structure.

Crude Oil Inverse Head and Shoulders Targets $116

The broader structure is an inverse head and shoulders, a reversal pattern that forms as selling pressure exhausts across three successive lows. The declining trend line connecting the rally highs between those lows serves as the neckline.

Holding above that neckline keeps the pattern active and the measured move in play. The target, projected from the depth of the pattern, sits at $116. This is a probability framework, not a forecast: the pattern defines what is likely if structure holds, and it defines clearly what would undermine the view if it does not.

Strait of Hormuz Headlines Test Crude Oil's Bullish Structure

The market's reaction to Tuesday's news is the more useful information. A credible peace deal around the Strait of Hormuz would be a meaningful bearish catalyst for oil. The initial selloff showed traders were willing to price that possibility. The recovery showed they were not willing to commit to it, given conflicting reports about continued attacks on shipping.

When headlines point in opposite directions, trend structure becomes the filter. The chart does not need to know which report is accurate. It only needs to show whether buyers defend the levels that matter, and so far they have.

Crude Oil Resistance Levels: $104.14, $108.26 and $116

A move through resistance does not mean a straight line higher. Each level overhead is likely to produce the same type of friction crude is working through now at $98.

Expect consolidation at each of these zones. Pauses at resistance are normal within a healthy advance and do not, on their own, invalidate the structure.

Natural Gas Breakout Targets $3.60 and $3.89

Natural gas is showing a constructive technical structure of its own. Price has produced a sequence of breakouts from its lows, each followed by a clean retest of the broken trend line before moving higher. The most recent move broke a declining trend line and is now testing the lower boundary of a parallel channel.

The near-term expectation is a test of $3.60, likely followed by some consolidation before a move toward the $3.89 target. As long as natural gas holds above its declining trend line at $3.21, the structure remains constructive.

Metals are in a different phase. Gold is consolidating in a bear flag on $4,100 support, with $3,950 as the next level below and a long-term trend line near $3,650. Silver has an active head and shoulders target at $53.26, with the $53.26 to $50 range viewed as a potential accumulation zone. Copper has broken its daily inclining trend line, with $5.99 as near-term support, though its weekly chart remains constructive. In each case, near-term weakness sits within longer-term views that are more balanced than bearish.

What Could Confirm or Invalidate Crude Oil's Breakout?

The immediate test is $98.01. A sustained move above that September pivot would strengthen the bullish case and bring $104.14 into focus, followed by $108.26. One reasonable way to judge that move is a daily close above $98.01 rather than an intraday push. Beyond those resistance levels, the inverse head and shoulders measured move points toward $116.

The declining neckline remains the more important structural reference. As long as crude holds above it, Drew's bullish interpretation remains intact. A decisive break back below would weaken the setup and call the $116 projection into question.

Strait of Hormuz headlines may continue to produce sharp swings in either direction, but the chart provides a clearer framework for evaluating those moves. For now, the question is whether buyers can turn four consecutive sessions of resistance testing into a sustained breakout.