Crude Oil Breaks a Key Trend Line While Silver and Palladium Rip Higher

U.S. crude oil (WTI) broke down through a key trend line on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, and price found support at $87.23, the 0.5 Fibonacci retrace. Gold, silver and palladium bounced hard off their recent lows in the same session. On each metal I'm mapping the first resistance it has to reclaim and the support that keeps the bounce intact.

The backdrop was the midterm elections. Democrats won control of both the House and Senate, oil fell more than 8% as markets reacted to the results, and the VIX, the market's fear index, eased sharply. My own opinion, and it is only that: the new powers in Congress may try to end the war earlier, which I hope means cheaper gas at the pump.

Crude sold off deeper intraday before bouncing, and I credit that bounce to the 0.5 Fibonacci retrace, drawn from the $54.98 swing low up to the $119.48 high. Price has respected this retracement's levels on the way down, including a reaction on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The trend line I had been watching is the one oil broke down from, so this is a breakdown sitting on support.

Below $87.23, my next line is a down-sloping trend line from June 3, 2026. At first it rejected price. Then price pushed above it, retraced, and has used it as support since September 1, 2026. Oil bounced off it, shot up, came back and nearly touched it, then tagged it again and bounced. A break below that line puts support around $84.26.

On a push back up, the retest of the broken trend line sits at $93.60 to $94. That return to the scene of the crime is the upside move I'm watching on oil.

• $93.60 to $94: retest of the broken trend line
• $87.23: 0.5 Fibonacci retrace
• June 3, 2026 trend line: next support
• $84.26: support below the June 3, 2026 line

Looking at gold, it broke out of the down-sloping trend line that has been capping price on my chart. The decline had taken gold to a one-year low near $3,870 to $3,875 on Friday, October 30, 2026, and this week it is finally pushing up. I want gold to hold above two things: that broken trend line and the low wick at $4,023. Holding $4,023 could keep gold above $4,000.

Resistance-wise, the next level to reclaim is the big swing-low pivot at $4,098. That is the next resistance gold has to take on, whether the push comes later in the session or on Thursday, November 5, 2026.

• $4,098: swing-low pivot
• $4,023: low wick
• Broken down-sloping trend line: breakout level

Next one is silver, up more than 5%, and that fits one of my rules: sharp moves give sharp bounces. Silver fell harder than gold, so it is bouncing harder. On my chart it still printed a lower low on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, possibly stopping some traders out, before bouncing off support. For half the session it has been hugging a pivot in the $50 to $51 area.

Resistance starts with the low tails at that pivot. Silver needs to get past them and back above $53. From there, the pivot shelf at $54.46 is the next key level of resistance, where price has been rejected more than once. Further out sits a down-sloping trend line anchored on May 13, 2026, with four hits. My methodology calls for three clean hits on a valid trend line, and this one clears that bar. A test could be a few days or a few weeks away. Because the line slopes down, the test level depends on timing: just under $60 an ounce on one path, or around $57 if it takes a couple more days. I'm watching how silver consolidates here, or whether it gets a sharp push up.

Just under $57 to just under $60: May 13, 2026 trend line, depending on timing

$54.46: pivot shelf

$53: level to get back above

$50 to $51: pivot with low tails to clear

Palladium jumped about 8% off multi-month lows, and it is a chart I haven't covered in a while. It had been grinding down slowly, then broke key support at $1,089. On the daily it built a time count, six red bar candles in a row, and that left it due for a bounce. The detail I want marked is this: on my chart palladium still made a lower low on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, before rocketing higher, a move that may have shaken out some traders.

Overhead, a down-sloping trend line from August 28, 2026 comes first. It has cleanly rejected price, and a push higher should test it right at $1,050, a round psychological level. Above that, the old $1,089 support flips to resistance. Because palladium did print that lower low, I want the downside marked too. My worst case is support near $913.43 should it give back the whole bounce.

• $1,089: broken support, now resistance
• $1,050: August 28, 2026 trend line
• $913.43: worst-case support

Natural gas, which I like to chart through UNG, is trying to bounce. Support-wise, the line is a down-sloping trend line from August 26, 2025 that gave price a bounce and is now being tested again after a couple of hits. The more often a line gets knocked on, the weaker it gets, so this one could favor a move lower even as UNG tries to bounce. To push up, UNG has to reclaim $9.55, then the low resistance at $9.95. UNG can always gap up or gap down, so I want those levels marked ahead of time.

• $9.55: first reclaim
• $9.95: second reclaim
  
• August 26, 2025 trend line: support, weakening with each hit

My watch plan from here: on crude oil, I'm watching whether $87.23 keeps holding or price retraces to the broken trend line at $93.60 to $94, with the June 3, 2026 line and $84.26 below.

Gold needs to stay above its broken trend line and $4,023, with $4,098 the next resistance it has to take on. Silver has to clear its $50 to $51 pivot and get back above $53 before $54.46 comes into play. 

Palladium's first test is the trend line at $1,050, then $1,089, with $913.43 as my worst case. On UNG, a weakening trend line could favor a move lower, and $9.55 is the first level it has to reclaim.