Gold's Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Breaks Down as Palladium Loses Its Psychological Floor on Election Day
Gold has started breaking down from its head and shoulders on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and most of the commodity board is leaning lower with it. Silver is sitting on a low pivot, palladium has lost the $1,000 level, oil has been selling off into the vote, and natural gas is pushing back up into a broken pattern. These are the levels I'm watching for the reaction after the election.
Gold Breaks Its Pattern
The head and shoulders I showed on gold last time has started to break down, and its measured move works out to the $3,400 level. I treat a measured move as a guide to where price could go. This one also makes sense on the chart, because $3,400 lines up with the long stretch of consolidation gold put in from April to September 2025.
There is a second bearish pattern on the longer time frame: a larger head and shoulders, and it's the one that concerns me most. Its measured move would be massive, all the way down to $2,300. Do I think gold fulfills that? No. Getting there would mean a total collapse in gold. That outcome is possible, and I put low odds on it.
My focus stays on the smaller pattern and the price action since the break. Gold has been stair-stepping: a leg down, a weak drift up, another leg down, another drift up. That reads as a potential bear flag, and a break of it could open more downside toward the $3,400 measured move guide.
One of the guys I go to hockey games with, a retiree, told me the past few weeks have been the worst ever for him in gold and silver, and he's holding on because he believes it will go back up eventually. That's the mentality of a lot of gold investors. The charts are telling me gold could be due for more of a pullback first, so the chart is what I'm following.
Silver Tests a Low Pivot
Silver has been getting crushed in this recent drop. The selling ran into a low pivot around $48.50, and silver found support at $48.60 on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with a small bounce off it. The open question is whether that bounce can continue.
On renewed selling, especially once election news hits, $46 is the next area where I would watch for support.
Palladium Loses $1,000
Palladium is selling more violently than gold or silver, and to me that shows how hard this whole asset class is getting hit. There was a strong support line on the chart: the 2026 lows coinciding with a down-sloping trend line. Two factors on the same level, and palladium sold right through it.
That deserves a moment, because stacking the odds is how I approach every level. Every added factor raises the probability that a level holds, and I want to be the casino. The casino still loses a hand now and then, which is why a stacked level is never a guarantee.
Palladium is now trading below $1,000 an ounce. A couple of weeks ago I'd have told you $1,000 would surely be plenty of support: all that consolidation, plus a key psychological level. It didn't hold at all.
The first downside area is just below nine hundred, near the $894 level, where two pivot lows sit and where I would watch for a bounce. Below that, all eyes go to $836. Palladium's 2024 low was around $836, and it hadn't traded that low since 2018. These are multi-year levels of support, and they could end up being buy-level areas where I watch for a bounce. Palladium may not be the flashiest chart on the board, but multi-year support still carries weight.
Oil Sells Into the Vote
US oil, which I'm reading through USO, peaked on Friday, October 30, 2026, and has been selling off heading into the election. I'm not giving a level on oil this time. The post-election reaction is what I'm watching.
Natural Gas Pushes Back Into Its Pattern
Natural gas put in a bearish head and shoulders. Do you see it on the chart? Left shoulder, head, then a smaller right shoulder. Since then, gas has been pushing back up into the pattern from below.
Overhead, a couple of pivots around $3.20 are the resistance I'm watching on this push. That is the one level I'm marking on gas for now.
Levels That Matter
| Asset | Level | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | $3,400 | Head and shoulders measured move guide, lines up with last year's consolidation |
| Gold | $2,300 | Larger head and shoulders measured move, low odds |
| Silver | $48.50 to $48.60 | Low pivot where silver found support on November 3, 2026 |
| Silver | $46 | Next support area on renewed selling |
| Palladium | $1,000 | Psychological level, lost |
| Palladium | $894 | Two pivot lows, first area to watch for a bounce |
| Palladium | $836 | 2024 low, multi-year support |
| Natural gas | $3.20 | Pivot resistance on the push back up |
Bottom Line
Oil stays a watch after the vote, with no level from me. Gold (XAU) has started breaking down from a head and shoulders, and a break of its potential bear flag would put the $3,400 measured move guide in play. On silver, I'm watching whether the bounce off $48.50 to $48.60 holds, with $46 next if election news brings more selling. On palladium, $894 is the first area where I would watch for a bounce on a retrace lower, then $836. On natural gas, $3.20 is the resistance on the push back up. My approach at each of these levels is the same: wait for the break or the retrace at the level, and act only when more than one factor lines up there.
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