US Oil Presses a Larger Pattern Trigger While Gold and Silver Test Support

US oil leads my commodity charts right now. US oil has an active inverse head and shoulders targeting $116, and daily closes above $103.62 would trigger a larger pattern behind it with a measured move near $148 to $149. Nat gas is defending a double layer of support, gold is sliding toward its next major support, and silver needs buyers to follow through at its completed target. I broke all four down on the Wednesday, October 28, 2026 episode of Pro Charts: Commodities.

Why US Oil Is the Chart to Watch First

I've got several trend lines on the US oil chart. The first is a declining trend line serving as the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders that's active and triggered. Its target is another declining trend line at $116 per barrel, with secondary resistance beyond it if price pushes through.

A bigger inverse head and shoulders sits behind that one, stacked on top of the first, with a left shoulder, a collective head and a right shoulder. Its measured move comes out at $148 and change, right around $149. On the monthly chart, the all-time high from July 2008 sits at $147.27, so the destination of that measured move would itself be a spot of resistance. Charts often line up like that, and it's one of my favorite parts of technical analysis.

The neckline of that larger pattern is the trend line I'm monitoring over the next several days, at $103.62. Daily closes above it put a march to $116 in play first. At that point, I'm hopeful for a rejection and a move back under the neckline, which would wipe the $148 measured move off the chart. Price has tested the bigger pattern several times already, so even if $103.62 breaks, I'm still optimistic about that rejection back under the neckline and the cancellation of the larger measured move that comes with it.

The stakes reach past the chart. Higher crude means much higher gas costs, and in my view it feeds into inflation and the Fed's rate decisions. That's why this chart got more of my time than the other three.

Nat Gas Holds a Double Layer of Support

Next up, nat gas has a different story. Forecasters are calling for an El Niño winter in 2026-2027, expected to be milder than recent years, yet the chart sits at a key junction.

Breakouts, retraces and bounces are how I read every setup, and nat gas is in the retrace. The recent breakout has come back in without confirming underneath the declining trend line that started it. One large candle wicked through, and no daily close has occurred beneath the red candle that first closed under that line. That's bearish consolidation inside a breakout that's still standing.

Support comes in two layers: the inclining trend line from the bottom of the chart, and the horizontal trend line where price first broke out on September 22, 2026. Four days of hits so far, and every test has held, including Wednesday's low printed right on the inclining trend line.

Repetition is the risk, because the more price trades on top of support, the more likely it breaks. Bulls want a move above the declining trend line at $3.19 as soon as possible. Above that level, I see clear room for nat gas to keep climbing, and the pressure comes off both layers of support.

Gold Below $4,100: Where Is the Next Support?

The $4,100 level has flipped. It was support when gold first broke down and built a bear flag on top of it; now price sits beneath both that level and the inclining parallel that frames the larger move, and the bear flag is extending with more bearish consolidation. Gold stays vulnerable as long as rallies get rejected there, and I anticipate near-term resistance at $4,104.

Further downside that breaks this consolidation brings my major support at $3,650, followed by $3,500. The $3,650 comes from the weekly chart, where an inclining trend line from an August 2020 pivot runs out beneath the current consolidation. There's little sideways price action between here and there to form a shelf of support, so a straight run into that zone is possible, and a drop like that would likely produce a very nice returning bounce.

Longer term, I see gold and silver going much higher than their most recent highs; the open questions are when, where to get in and how much. My approach is to hold back from going all in at the current level, keep dry powder and add near support, so if $3,650 gives way and price works down to $3,500, there's room to accumulate more and feel fine about it.

Silver After the Head and Shoulders Target

For four trading days now, silver has been sitting on its completed $53.26 head and shoulders target and piercing it. The left shoulder, head and right shoulder formed over the inclining trend line that served as the neckline. The previous three sessions left wicks, and another is forming Wednesday, a sign buyers are defending this zone. Bulls are still winning the daily battle, pushing price up and keeping closes away from the lows.

The chart still shows a bear flag, though, and the longer this drags on, the more likely the bulls lose their momentum. I want wicks like these to draw a reaction within three or four trading days, which leaves silver about one more session after Wednesday. A push higher that responds to the completed target and those buyer wicks could carry silver to $59.15, the 50% area of the parallel channel.

Silver could still go lower. On the weekly chart, the April 2011 pivot high sits just under $50, and a declining trend line connecting the recent lows cuts right under that area. Together they form a support zone from $49.96 down to $48.52.

I've already picked up some silver with the measured move accomplished. My personal plan, should it keep falling, is to pick up more all the way down to the bottom of the parallel channel around $32, a channel that has held silver since January 2008. The Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2026 puts the market in a supply deficit for six consecutive years, starting in 2021, and I anticipate silver going higher. What I don't know yet is whether it touches the bottom of the parallel before it attacks the top.

Levels That Matter

Bottom Line

Oil sets the tone for this group. Daily closes above $103.62 would trigger the larger pattern, with $116 first and roughly $148 to $149 beyond it. Nat gas needs $3.19 to take the pressure off its support, and gold faces resistance at $4,104 with $3,650 below. Silver needs its buyer wicks at $53.26 to produce a push toward $59.15.