Gold and Silver Are Selling Off, but the Bigger Trend Hasn't Broken Yet

Gold just gave traders the first warning. It has not given them the breakdown.

Monday's selloff knocked more than 4% off gold, and price is now back below a level that had recently flipped into support. Silver sold sharply as well. At the same time, long-term Treasury yields have continued pressing higher, creating another headwind for non-yielding precious metals.

The short-term message is straightforward: sellers have control.

The more important question is what happens when they reach the next level.

Both gold and silver still have larger technical structures beneath current price that have not yet broken. That makes the next trendline tests more important than Monday's percentage decline. If those structures hold, the selloff can remain a pullback. If they begin to fail, the technical picture changes.

Gold's $4,161 Failure Puts the Bigger Trendline in Play

Gold's first technical change has already happened.

The $4,161 level had flipped from resistance into support after price pushed above it. Gold has since fallen back underneath that level, and Tuesday's attempted recovery has struggled to reclaim it.

The upper wick developing on Tuesday's candle matters. Buyers pushed price higher intraday, but sellers responded and drove it back down. Until $4,161 is reclaimed, that keeps the immediate pressure pointed toward the next support rather than back toward the highs.

That next test sits around $4,050 to $4,060.

Jake draws the rising trendline from the April 23 pivot low through several subsequent lows and candle tails. A move into that trendline would still leave gold above $4,000 and, more importantly, would test the larger structure that has supported the advance.

A reaction there would keep the broader uptrend structure intact. A confirmed break below it would be more meaningful than the loss of $4,161 because it would begin damaging the trend that sits underneath the recent advance.

What Gold Has to Reclaim

If gold stabilizes, the recovery has its own hierarchy.

$4,161 comes first. Until buyers can reclaim the former support level, there is little reason to treat Tuesday's bounce as a meaningful change in the short-term structure.

Above it sits a downsloping trendline that capped gold repeatedly last week. Jake counts roughly six to seven interactions with that line, which is why he views it as increasingly vulnerable to a breakout if gold gets back there.

The larger resistance, however, sits near $4,307.

That trendline begins at the April 8, 2025 pivot low and previously acted as support. After price broke underneath it, the same line began rejecting subsequent rallies from below.

That polarity shift gives $4,307 more technical weight than a simple horizontal price level. If gold eventually gets back there, buyers would be testing former structural support that has turned into resistance.

For now, though, $4,307 is secondary. The immediate fight is between $4,161 overhead and the $4,050–$4,060 trendline underneath.

Silver Has Its Own Line in the Sand

Silver is working through a similar test, but its structure is slightly different.

Jake's primary support comes from a rising trendline extending from the October pivot low. Price previously slipped below that line before reclaiming it rather than confirming the breakdown.

Within Jake's framework, that reclaim adds credibility to the trendline because sellers failed to sustain the move beneath it.

Now it is being tested again.

If that support fails, the next major reference sits near the prior pivot top at $54.46. Buyers stepped in just before reaching that level during the previous decline, and Jake identifies roughly $54 as the area he would favor for a potential swing-long setup if silver sells down that far.

That does not make $54 an automatic entry. It makes the reaction there important.

On the upside, silver first needs to reclaim $64, the prior low pivot that is currently acting as resistance. Above that, a downsloping trendline comes into play near $67.

The sequence is therefore clean: hold the rising support structure, reclaim $64, then challenge the trendline near $67.

Oil Shows Why the Commodity Read Isn't One-Dimensional

The rest of the commodity complex makes this more interesting because the weakness is not identical everywhere.

Crude oil has spent roughly a week trading inside a range after falling below $93. The key horizontal support is $88.61, a level that has produced several clean bounces.

Jake is also watching the possibility of an upsloping head-and-shoulders structure developing inside a widening channel. That pattern is still developing, not confirmed.

A break of $88.61 would bring the lower channel boundary into focus around $86.94 to $87.40, depending on timing.

If oil reverses higher instead, Jake sees initial resistance around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $99.45 to $100, followed by a longer-term downsloping trendline around $104 to $105.

Oil therefore has its own decision point. It is weakening inside the range, but the larger downside signal still requires support to break.

Natural Gas Is Giving Back the Spike

Natural gas adds another variation.

UNG made a large move last week and was up roughly 13% intraday on Tuesday before selling back and giving up much of that gain. Even so, Jake still sees a series of relative higher lows holding above a rising support trendline.

That trendline comes into play around $10.37. If it fails, Jake's next support is the prior downsloping resistance line that UNG broke above, now sitting around $9.94 to $10.00.

Resistance begins around $10.90, followed by the prior consolidation shelf near $11.72 and another downsloping trendline around $12.

The spike has faded. The higher-low structure has not yet.

Copper Is Still Holding the Larger Trend

Copper may be the cleanest example of why a pullback does not automatically equal a broken trend.

After reaching a new 52-week high last week, copper failed to hold the breakout and sold back underneath its ascending resistance line. Jake is now watching $39.55 as the immediate support level.

Underneath that sits the more important structure: a long-term rising trendline extending from the July 31, 2025 pivot low.

Copper has been traveling along that trendline despite temporary breaks and reclaims. Even if $39.55 gives way, Jake sees room for another higher low to develop along that larger structure.

For the bullish case to regain momentum, copper first needs to reclaim $40.21 and then challenge the ascending resistance line again.

The Levels That Matter Now

Bottom Line

The percentage moves are dramatic. The technical message is more measured.

Gold has lost short-term support. Silver is under pressure. Oil is making lower highs inside its range. Natural gas has surrendered much of its intraday spike, and copper failed to hold its move above ascending resistance.

But the larger structures underneath those markets have not all failed.

That makes the next tests more useful than the selloff itself.

For gold, $4,050 to $4,060 is the level that can tell us whether this remains a pullback inside the larger trend. For silver, the rising trendline comes first, with $54.46 underneath it if sellers keep pressing. Oil has $88.61, UNG has its rising support near $10.37, and copper remains tied to its longer-term trendline.

The pressure is already visible. Now the charts have to show whether it is strong enough to break the structures underneath price.

Stay patient. Don't chase the move. Let the levels do the work.