Bitcoin: The Bigger Timeframe Signals Caution

As Bitcoin hovers around all-time highs, technical analysis warrants caution. The biggest obstacle is a trend line that starts at the bull market high in 2017, connects perfectly with the first and second bull market high in 2021 and extends out to the 2024 and 2025 high.

An ascending trend line that has marked the high of every bull market move in Bitcoin has to be taken seriously until proven otherwise. Therefore, investors need to be cautious with Bitcoin sitting near $110,000. Upside to this trend line is limited to $115,000. That means less than 5%.

In addition, it is important to note that every time Bitcoin hits this trend line, it has a substantial correction. In 2017, Bitcoin dropped 85% and in 2021 Bitcoin fell 77%. After hitting the trend line again in late 2024 and early 2025, the biggest correction has been 30%. This leaves the door open for a much bigger correction.

While the long-term case for Bitcoin to go higher continues, the near-term is much murkier with this trend line capping the upside.