Nvidia, Marvell and Broadcom Are Testing Support. Microsoft Shows What Confirmation Looks Like

Nvidia gave back 4.7% in the most recent session, a day after an earnings pop carried it to $230.47 and into the resistance Drew Dosek had mapped by extending a pivot high across the next set of pivot highs. Price never made contact. The line sat at $230.90. The near-miss established the zone as near-term resistance anyway.

The earnings reaction did not survive the next session. Dosek instead points to Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks as the catalyst behind the broader reversal. Warsh emphasized persistent inflation, reaffirmed 2% as a fixed target, and indicated rate increases remain in play absent clear improvement. Dosek's read is that getting inflation back to target could require higher rates. Markets opened well and then rolled over, with the largest market cap in the index doing the heaviest work down.

The more useful question is not how far these names fell but what price has already done at the levels now coming into play. A line defended for nearly two years, a channel reclaimed and confirmed, and a channel reclaimed and abandoned are three different situations.

Nvidia: Confluence Support With a Failed-Breakout Problem

The first support Dosek identifies is a gap fill at $209.66, left from the session Nvidia reported. It lands on the declining trend line the stock closed beneath on Wednesday, August 26, before earnings. The gap fill and the trend line converge in the same area, giving Dosek two technical references for the first support test.

The complication is history. That declining line has already been broken, the breakout confirmed, the retrace completed, and the bounce delivered. The work has been done once. If price returns to $209.66 and cannot defend it, Dosek treats that not as ordinary support failure but as a failed breakout, which carries a different implication. His expectation in that case is a direct move to the bottom of the inclining parallel channel that has contained Nvidia since the Liberation Day lows in April 2025, roughly $200.

That lower rail is where the math gets less comfortable. Price has already tapped the bottom of the parallel three times, and Dosek's view is that a fourth touch becomes a coin flip on whether it holds or breaks. What he is watching for is a hold at $209.66 that lets Nvidia march higher from confluence. What he is watching against is a break that turns a completed breakout into a false one.

Marvell: An Older Line, Tested More Often

Marvell fell 9.72% and paused inside a consolidation range sitting on top of a trend line Dosek drew from a March 2024 pivot high through a second pivot in December 2024.

That line has a record. Price approached it and paused, pierced it, got rejected, closed below, consolidated, then lifted. It was rejected again later, and once price recovered above it the stock consolidated, caught a bounce and moved higher. That repeated interaction is why Dosek expects the area to hold in the coming days, even if selling extends into next week. He wants price to remain around that rising trend line, which sits in roughly the low-$210s on the chart. If that structure breaks, Dosek identifies $193.61 as the next support capable of producing a bounce.

Broadcom: The Clock Restarts

Broadcom closed back inside the longer-range inclining parallel that has contained price since December 2024, which Dosek called a good first step. What it needed next was a follow-through session with conviction buying, enough separation from the lower rail to convert that boundary into support.

It did not get one. AVGO looks set to close beneath the parallel again, valued at $371.07 in the current session and rising as the channel extends forward. Closing back below restarts the clock. The attempt has to be made again from around $371.64 next week, and it needs the follow-through push it failed to produce this time. Without it, Dosek sees the stock vulnerable to a pull down.

Running a Fibonacci retracement from the pivot low to the most recent pivot high puts the .786 retrace on a gap fill at $333.97. That is the area he says he has been watching, and he noted the Nvidia reversal interrupted a plan he was already working toward.

Microsoft: What Follow-Through Actually Looks Like

Microsoft is the counterexample. It closed back inside the top half of its inclining parallel channel, then extended that move with conviction in the next session. That is the sequence AVGO needed and missed. The result is that $503.39 now functions as support rather than as a level under review.

Dosek's next reference higher is the inclining trend line near $531.32, with the exact value drifting depending on when price arrives. Above that, a prior run-up on top of the parallel around $541 lines up with a gap fill, which he sees as potential resistance if price runs directly into it. In Dosek's framing, the deepest-pocketed mega-caps can become an early destination for capital during broad selling, which is why pullbacks in them are harder to come by.

Key Levels

What Would Change the View

For Nvidia, a hold at $209.66 keeps the completed breakout intact. Losing it reclassifies the move as a failed breakout and puts the $200 rail in play, where the fourth test is the one Dosek treats as genuinely uncertain. For AVGO, the tell is not the reclaim but the session after it.

Support matters differently depending on what price has already done there. Marvell is leaning on a line with nearly two years of interaction. AVGO reclaimed its channel and then failed the follow-through test. Microsoft reclaimed its channel and confirmed it immediately. Nvidia sits somewhere else entirely: its breakout already worked once, so another failure at $209.66 would change the character of the move rather than simply produce another support test.