Potential Measured Move Calculation Gives S&P A 6,100 Target

The S&P 500 keeps fighting off negative news. The middle east tensions, Russia and Ukraine, weak economic data, revisions to jobs reports, election worries. The list goes on and on, yet the stock market keeps climbing the wall of worry.

As the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, it is likely retail will continue to pump money into the markets, chasing alpha. This all while it is clear institutional investors are slowly exiting.

As a technician, we have to look for maximum upside targets. In other words, how high can this market go before it potentially makes a major top?

One method is called the measured move. The measured move takes a major low from the prior cycle and measures the price change to the highest point of that cycle. For the S&P, that measurement starts from the Covid low and goes to the bull market high of 2021. This measurement is 2,612 points.

Next, take that same 2,612 point move and add it to the bear market clow in 2022. In theory, this distance should be a potential major high on the S&P 500. It would be a psychological factor, even somewhat subconscious to investors. It would be one factor. Good investors and traders look for one or two more matching factors to align.

The maximum measured move target brings the S&P 500 to 6,100.