Non Farm Payrolls Report: Expectations and Insights
Published At: Sep 01, 2024 by
Gareth Soloway
The Non Farm Payrolls Report looms large in early September as all eyes will be watching to see how strong or weak the data is. This will ultimately push the Federal Reserve toward more interest rate cuts or less interest rate cuts.
As of now, the expectation for the Non Farm Payrolls Report are a gain of 164,000. Last month the data came in weaker than expected at 142,000.
The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a comprehensive monthly report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that provides detailed information about the employment situation in the United States.
It's based on two main surveys:-
Establishment Survey:
- Non-farm Payroll Employment: This is the headline number, representing the change in the number of jobs in the private sector and government agencies, excluding farm workers, private household employees, proprietors, non-profit employees, and active-duty military personnel.
- Average Hourly Earnings: This tracks the average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls.
- Average Weekly Hours: This measures the average number of hours worked per week by production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls.
- Employment by Industry: This provides a breakdown of employment changes across various sectors of the economy.
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Household Survey:
- Unemployment Rate: This is the percentage of the civilian labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment.
- Labor Force Participation Rate: This is the percentage of the civilian non-institutional population aged 16 and over that is either employed or actively looking for work.
- Employment-Population Ratio: This measures the percentage of the civilian non-institutional population aged 16 and over that is employed.
- Unemployment by Demographic Groups: This provides a breakdown of unemployment rates across various demographic groups, such as age, gender, race, and education level.
- Reasons for Unemployment: This categorizes the reasons why people are unemployed, such as job losers, job leavers, reentrants, and new entrants.
Key Points:
- The NFP report is released on the first Friday of each month, usually at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
- The report covers the employment situation for the previous month.
- The NFP report is a closely watched economic indicator, as it provides valuable insights into the health of the labor market and the overall economy.
- It significantly impacts financial markets, including the stock market, the U.S. dollar, and interest rates.
