US Consumer Confidence (Feb 2026): Expectations Improve but Remain Below Recession Threshold

What Was the February 2026 Consumer Confidence Reading?

The Consumer Confidence Index increased to 91.2 in February 2026, up from a revised 89.0 in January.

While the headline number improved modestly, the underlying components show a continued divergence between how consumers view current conditions versus their outlook for the next six months.

Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)

Source: The Conference Board, February 2026

The long-term chart shows that confidence has declined meaningfully from post-pandemic highs and remains below the levels seen throughout much of 2024–2025.

Present Situation vs. Expectations

Source: The Conference Board, February 2026

February 2026 Breakdown

• Consumer Confidence Index: 91.2
• Present Situation Index: 120.0
• Expectations Index: 72.0

The Expectations Index remains below 80, a level that has historically signaled elevated recession risk when sustained over time.

While the Present Situation Index suggests consumers still view current business and labor conditions as relatively stable, forward-looking sentiment remains cautious.

Why the Expectations Index Matters

The Expectations Index reflects consumers’ outlook on:

• Business conditions
• Employment prospects
• Income expectations

Historically, when this index falls and remains below 80, economic slowdowns have often followed within the next 6–12 months. Although February’s reading improved slightly, it remains firmly in pessimistic territory.

This divergence — stable present conditions but weaker expectations — suggests consumers are navigating current conditions but remain uncertain about the path ahead.

Implications for Markets and Policy

Consumer confidence influences spending, and consumer spending represents roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP.

If expectations remain subdued:

• Big-ticket purchases may slow
• Discretionary spending could moderate
• Growth momentum may soften

For markets, a modest improvement in sentiment may support equities in the near term. However, persistent weakness in forward expectations could reinforce slower-growth narratives in fixed income markets.

For the Federal Reserve, this report complements inflation and labor data. Confidence alone does not drive policy, but weakening expectations could influence broader growth forecasts.

Bottom Line

February 2026 Consumer Confidence improved modestly to 91.2, but the forward-looking Expectations Index remains below the critical 80 threshold.

Consumers appear stable in the present but cautious about the future — a dynamic that markets will continue to monitor closely.