US Durable Goods Orders Report: December 2025 Manufacturing Update

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (February 18, 2026).

Durable goods orders declined in December 2025, reflecting continued volatility in manufacturing activity.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, new orders for manufactured durable goods fell 1.4% month over month in December to $319.6 billion. November orders were revised higher to a 5.4% increase.

The data, released February 18, 2026, highlights the uneven pattern in business investment and manufacturing demand throughout 2025.

A Volatile Year for Manufacturing

The chart shows the month-to-month percentage change in durable goods orders throughout 2025.

After modest gains early in the year, orders surged 16.5% in May, only to swing sharply lower in June with a 9.4% decline. The second half of the year continued to show alternating gains and pullbacks, including:

• August: +3.0%
• November: +5.4% (revised)
• December: –1.4%

This pattern reinforces a key reality: durable goods data is inherently volatile, often driven by large aircraft and defense orders.

What Durable Goods Really Tells Us

Durable goods orders serve as a leading indicator of manufacturing demand and business capital expenditures. However, headline figures can be distorted by large transportation orders.

While December’s decline may appear concerning at first glance, it follows a strong November gain. The broader 2025 trend reflects swings rather than sustained deterioration.

The report does not yet signal a collapse in manufacturing, but it does confirm that capital spending momentum remains inconsistent.

Market Implications

For equities, particularly industrial and cyclical sectors, durable goods volatility suggests selective rather than broad-based strength in business demand.

For bond markets, the –1.4% December print does not materially alter inflation expectations but reinforces the narrative of moderating economic momentum.

For the Federal Reserve, uneven capital spending trends support a cautious stance. The data does not reflect overheating investment demand.

Bottom Line

Durable goods orders declined 1.4% in December 2025, following a revised 5.4% increase in November.

Manufacturing demand in 2025 was marked by sharp swings rather than sustained acceleration. The latest report suggests continued volatility in business investment rather than a decisive shift in trend.