GAME PLAN REVEALED: 05/06/2025

Markets started the week on a cautious note, with light volume and risk appetite subdued ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates scheduled for Wednesday. In today’s episode of GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, walked viewers through the morning market narrative, highlighting key technical chart levels, sentiment-driven psychology, and upcoming catalysts that traders must navigate in the days ahead.

Let’s go beyond the charts and explore the deeper drivers influencing price action—and how smart traders prepare for what's next.

Pre-Fed Pause: What Light Volume Signals About Sentiment

As Gareth emphasized, this is one of those market weeks where anticipatory behavior is everything. Monday delivered exactly that: a soft open, intraday recovery to flat, and then weakness into the close. Today’s pre-market session followed through on that weakness with the S&P 500 down nearly 0.8% and the NASDAQ 100 down over 1%.

The common thread? Traders are stepping to the sidelines as they await Powell's remarks on Wednesday.

The expected themes:

• Clarity on the Fed’s path forward for interest rates
• Commentary on economic data and inflation outlook
• Potential implications of ongoing trade war tensions and new tariff announcements

This type of "pause-before-the-news" behavior happens frequently ahead of major Fed events. It reflects both disciplined investors avoiding unnecessary exposure and speculative traders hedging or raising cash.

This temporary indecision often obscures underlying technical significance—which is why Gareth always turns to the charts.

S&P 500: Respecting Resistance and the Power of Max Panic

Looking at the daily chart on the S&P 500 futures, Gareth pointed out a critical observation: the index found recent support at the exact level of the 2022 bull market high—support that also connects to the COVID low and 2022-bear market bottom via long-term trendlines.

That’s not coincidence. That’s institutional-grade technical support.

What happened here is a perfect embodiment of market psychology: when price touches these powerful technical levels, retail investors often experience max fear and begin to dump positions.

As Gareth noted:

"Just as the markets are hitting support, retail investors are at their max panic and dumping... not focusing on charts, they're focusing on their emotion."

This point cannot be overstated. When prices descend into major technical support, accompanied by fear-inducing headlines, social media outrage, and CNBC-style doomsaying, that's often where generational buying opportunities begin—not where they end.

Mainstream and social media platforms thrive on engagement fueled by fear and FOMO. Gareth reminds traders to remain grounded in data and probabilities, letting the charts guide decisions, not the narrative.

Gap Fills, Fibonacci, and the Reversal Zone

Fast forward to last Friday, and we saw the opposite: for the first time during the entire recovery off the lows, traders were confidently buying into the weekend. Not coincidentally, that day saw the S&P tag and slightly pierce a key gap fill level and the all-important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the high.

The result? Immediate rejection into the new week.

"Look at that on the futures, right? I mean literally, right to gap fill... and then also we had just pierced the 618."

Gap fills and Fibonacci retracement levels are more than visual features on a chart. They're psychological battle zones. When price reaches a resistance zone with such surgical precision—only to reverse—the technicals provide us with the edge.

This isn’t about knowing what comes next. It’s about assigning higher probability to certain outcomes based on confluences of key levels.

BUY ZONE: Into long-term trendline support where fear is extreme
SELL ZONE: Into gap fills and 618 retracements when sentiment is overtly bullish

This is the hallmark of probability-driven trading.

QQQ: The NASDAQ Meets the Golden Ratio

The tech-heavy QQQ also faced stiff resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement before turning lower. Monday's closing price sat exactly on that level, with Tuesday continuing the decline.

The key message here?

"As a technical trader, you take it level by level by level."

Tuning out the noise, successful traders focus on each support and resistance level with respect. While bigger trend biases might tilt bearish (as Gareth has said regarding expectation for eventual new lows), short-term levels cannot be ignored.

Every level on a chart has a role. Some are minor speed bumps, others full-blown defensive walls. The key is identifying which is which and respecting them accordingly.

The Yield Chart: A Tipping Point Amid Fed Speculation

Zooming out from equities, the 10-year Treasury yield remains on every trader’s radar heading into the Fed decision. Gareth tracked a perfect technical bounce on the yield chart off long-term support. Those yields now trade into a clear resistance zone defined by parallel trendlines.

The implication?

We're at a decision point. Powell's words could be the catalyst.

While many market participants expect Powell to push back on rate-cut hopes, Gareth believes the Fed will stress its “data dependence,” hinting that should the economy weaken significantly, accommodation might return.

This "Fed put" mentality may be sluggish to re-emerge—but if surprising economic weakness materializes, it could spark activity across all asset classes, from yields to stocks to commodities.

Case Study: Why Palantir Dropped Despite 'Great' Earnings

Few breakdowns in today’s GAME PLAN were more illustrative than the deep dive into Palantir (PLTR). This was a real-world lesson in price versus perception.

Palantir:

• Beat on earnings
• Beat on revenue
• Raised guidance

Yet the stock is down over 8%.

Why? Because it ran 88.8% in less than a month into the event.

"Unless Palantir magically cures cancer, they're going to essentially be already priced in."

Gareth noted he shorted PLTR in the Verified Investing day trading room and still holds a swing short targeting around the $10 level. He highlighted a cluster of technical resistance between $12.50 and $12.80, rooted in both a double top and a parallel channel.

The lesson: fundamentals are not the same as positioning.

When a stock rallies 88% in three weeks, the “earnings surprise” needed to propel it further becomes almost impossible to meet. Add in social media and analyst hype, and you’ve got a prime setup for a sell-the-news event—even on strong results.

Another lesson: charts reveal opportunity that headlines rarely do. Even the most admired stock with impressive financials will obey gravity when expectations become too euphoric.

Earnings Aftermath: Mixed Action Offers Few Opportunities

Gareth quickly reviewed several corporate earnings reports:

• Datadog (DDOG): Flat after initial volatility
• Celsius Holdings (CELH): Recovered from early weakness
• DoorDash (DASH): Down slightly on acquisition news despite strong earnings
• Constellation Energy (CEG): Initially lower but rebounding
• Ferrari (RACE): Slight gain
• Marriott (MAR): Flat
• Ford (F): Down slightly after suspending guidance due to tariff impact

The key takeaway? Very few actionable setups emerged from these names—at least not yet.

However, Gareth did flag Ford as a long watchlist candidate. A breakout above a trend channel could trigger upside toward a gap fill near $13.66. Until that technical breakout materializes though, it remains on standby.

Bitcoin: Safe Haven or Risk Proxy?

Bitcoin continues to flirt with technical breakdown.

"If this breaks and we have a daily close below here, I would then be bearish on Bitcoin until you get down to about 87,700."

The jury’s still out on whether Bitcoin is a safe haven or simply a risk asset. While it occasionally acts contrary to equities—especially during geopolitical turmoil—Gareth emphasized that emotional selling from retail traders still tends to impact Bitcoin disproportionately during uncertain periods.

This aligns with broader behavioral finance studies showing that newer asset classes are often sold first during flight-to-safety events, regardless of their supposed long-term utility.

Gold & Silver: Divergence in Motion

Gold's recent rally is approaching resistance near the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Gareth, short-term neutral but long-term bullish, is eyeing this zone as a potential re-entry point for short trades.

Analytical take:

• Short-term: Preparing for resistance near 786 fib
• Mid-/Long-term: Bullish due to fiscal irresponsibility and rising global debt burdens

Silver, meanwhile, remains firm above its trendline with minor resistance in the $34.50 zone—the next potential upside level.

Analogy of the Day:

"Minor resistance levels are like wooden doors. Major resistance levels? Steel doors."

This memorable metaphor reminds traders to assess how much effort price will need to expend to breach different technical levels.

Crude Oil & Natural Gas: Watching, Not Jumping

Oil shows signs of bottoming but remains within a bear flag pattern. Price action hasn't hit any of Gareth’s identified trade zones yet.

Natural gas rejected a key trendline resistance on Monday but rebounded in today’s pre-market. Gareth noted he would consider a short if the current bounce pushes through to the $3.85–$3.90 level—stronger resistance.

Until then, the energy trade remains on hold for those favoring high-probability setups only.

The Discipline of Trading Ahead of Events

Gareth closed by reminding viewers that with the Fed on tap, Tuesday might remain a “light commitment” day for traders.

"Is it just a light volume kind of nervousness ahead of the Fed tomorrow?"

In this kind of environment, letting the market come to you is smarter than forcing trades. He also flagged AMD's earnings report after the bell as another key event to watch.

Lastly, Gareth announced his new Options Swing Trading service at Verified Investing, already delivering trade alerts live to subscribers.

The consistent thread? Data, probabilities, psychology—and patience.

Conclusion: Trust the Data, Not the Drama

This pre-Fed environment offers a key reminder for all investors: when headlines dominate and sentiment swings, returning to technical levels and psychological discipline generates edge.

Whether it's S&P resistance at gap fill, overbought darlings like Palantir rejecting off exuberance, or gold approaching key fib levels, successful traders operate by framework—not by fear.

The matchups are set. The Fed's decision will light the spark. Whether the next leg is breakout or breakdown, Gareth's game plan ensures smart traders will be equipped in advance—not surprised in hindsight.

Until next time, stay focused, stay factual, and stay prepared.