GAME PLAN REVEALED: 05/08/2025

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, broke down the market’s muted reaction to the Federal Reserve decision, the surge in chip stocks on eased export curbs, and overnight gains tied to a UK trade deal. Beyond the headlines, today’s analysis digs into whether these coordinated announcements mask underlying market fatigue, the technical battle lines on major indices, implications for bond yields and commodities, selective stock setups, and the trading discipline needed to navigate this environment.

Coordinated News Flow and Market Reaction

On Wednesday, the Fed held rates steady as expected. While Jerome Powell’s remarks failed to move markets significantly, chip stocks rallied late in the session when the White House signaled it would roll back some Biden-era semiconductor export restrictions. Overnight, futures jumped again on news of a UK–US trade pact, prompting a fresh rally into today’s open.

“If you think about it logically… Trump’s team knew Powell wouldn’t cut rates, so let’s plan announcements right after that,” Gareth noted. This sequence raises the question: are these headlines engineered to divert attention from the Fed’s inaction? And, crucially, will markets turn this into a sell-the-news event once the initial euphoria subsides?

Historical precedent shows that when markets are starved for positive catalysts, even modest relief can spark rallies—only to reverse when participants look beyond the headlines to fundamentals. Today we’ll watch for signs of ‘diminishing returns’—where each new promise yields smaller price gains—and assess whether this trade-deal cheer can sustain the bullish bias.

Technical Outlook: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are bumping into key resistance levels established last week. On S&P futures, the line to beat sits at 5,713, mirroring the SPY’s pivotal high around 5,700–5,713. For the QQQ, the Nasdaq 100’s gap-fill zone near its Friday peak acts as a ceiling.

“If we don’t take out those highs today, that could be problematic…it could be showing diminishing returns,” Gareth warned. From a historical standpoint, indices often test prior peaks following major news, and failure to break above can signal a shift from momentum to range-bound trading.

Key technical factors:

• Gap fill at prior peaks (S&P 5,700; Nasdaq ~500)
• Recent pullback retests of support zones
• Volume confirmation on breakouts or rejections

Traders should watch for a decisive close above resistance to confirm renewed bullish momentum. Conversely, a fade from these levels may set up short-term swing trades or signal a consolidation phase.

Bond Yields, Trade-War Inventory, and Fed Implications

With roughly $9 trillion of U.S. debt up for refinancing this year, the 10-year Treasury yield remains a critical input for equity valuations. After the Fed decision, yields held within a bull channel, suggesting a bias toward higher rates.

“A bullish pattern means more likely than not we move higher on yields, which…makes it tougher for the Fed to cut,” Gareth explained. Yields rising in the face of trade-war tariffs underscore foreign buyers’ reluctance to absorb U.S. debt if costs of imported goods climb.

On the consumer side, businesses front-loaded inventory ahead of tariffs, creating a temporary buffer against price hikes. Historically, such inventory cycles delay inflation readings by roughly three months—implying CPI and PPI may stay subdued in the near term before spiking as inventories deplete.

What to monitor:

• Break or hold of the 10-year yield bull channel
• Dollar strength (impacting commodity prices and U.S. export competitiveness)
• Upcoming inflation data (CPI, PPI, PCE) once inventory buffers wane

As we await major trade deals with China or Vietnam—key sources of consumer goods—the interplay between tariffs, yields, and Fed policy will shape risk assets’ trajectory.

Stock-Specific Setups: Carvana, Shopify, AppLovin, ARM, Quantum Names

Earnings season continues to deliver volatility and clear trading opportunities. Gareth highlighted several multi-factor levels for potential entries and exits.

Carvana (CVNA)
After solid earnings, CVNA rallied in pre-market but faces resistance at the $282–290 gap-fill and downtrend line from its all-time high.
“You have a double top, a trend line, and a gap fill—plenty of resistance here for a swing short,” Gareth said.

Shopify (SHOP)
SHOP plunged to a $85.65 gap fill pre-market, then bounced to $88.40. With that level already tested, further gains risk low reward. A healthier entry for bulls would be down near the $80.50 pivot low.

AppLovin (APP)
Following yesterday’s sharp post-earnings surge, APP faces resistance at the $377 gap. This counter-trend short illustrates how traders fade overextended moves backed by excessive greed.

ARM Holdings (ARM)
ARM’s rally from a deep earnings-induced sell-off hit a potential short zone around $120 intraday. For swing traders, a retrace to the channel’s underbelly near $120–125 may offer a high-probability short.

Quantum Names (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI)
Smaller caps like QBTS jumped on earnings but lack clear multi-factor resistance zones. Gareth advises avoiding shorts on names that can squeeze rapidly post-earnings.

These setups underscore the importance of confluence—alignment of pivot points, trendlines, and Fibonacci levels—to elevate trade probabilities and manage risk.

Crypto and Commodities: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas

Bitcoin’s rally above $99,900 on trade-deal optimism marks a near-term resistance test. A sustained move above $100,000 would open the door to $101,000 and perhaps a retest of the $113,000 all-time high. Gareth will consider a starter short if Bitcoin pushes past six-figure territory.

Gold and Silver
Gold reversed its recent bounce and sits just below its parallel channel. A daily close above $3,500 would negate the topping tail and signal an advance toward $4,000; otherwise, a pullback to the $3,265 support zone seems likely. Silver remains trapped between $23.50 and $25.00, offering no clear directional edge yet.

Oil and Natural Gas
Oil’s bear-flag consolidation following a steep decline suggests further downside if it breaks lower. Natural gas is testing short-term resistance near $3.80–4.00; a failure to break higher could set up a short into the mid-$3 range.

Across commodities, watch for intermarket signals—particularly the dollar and yields—that often presage moves in raw materials.

Trading Discipline: Probabilities, Risk Management, and Lessons Learned

Beyond charts and patterns, Gareth stressed the psychological framework essential for consistent trading:

“Starter positions—slow and steady really does win the race,” he reminded viewers, recounting early career mistakes of buying highs and selling lows. Even after 26 years and big wins like a $20K Palantir short, he still encounters daily lessons.

Key takeaways for traders:

• Embrace probability over certainty—no setup is a “slam dunk.”
• Size positions to match your edge; never bet the farm on a single trade.
• Use multi-factor analysis to tilt odds in your favor.
• Accept losses as the tuition you pay to learn market dynamics.
• Cultivate humility—overconfidence invites painful corrections.

This disciplined, probability-driven mindset differentiates professional traders from the crowd, enabling you to survive setbacks and compound gains over time.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

Today’s news flow—Fed inaction, chip-export relief, and a UK trade deal—provides short-term fuel for risk assets. Yet failure to clear last week’s highs would underscore market fatigue and set the stage for a broader consolidation. Meanwhile, bond yields and inventory cycles hint at inflation risks down the road, adding complexity to Fed policy expectations.

Selective setups in Carvana, Shopify, AppLovin, and ARM offer high-probability opportunities, while Bitcoin and commodities tests at key levels will inform broader risk sentiment. Above all, disciplined risk management and probability-based decision-making remain paramount. As Gareth often says, “The market will teach you lessons daily—can you lose less?” By applying the frameworks outlined today, traders can refine their edge and navigate whatever market conditions lie ahead.