GAME PLAN REVEALED: 05/09/2025
This morning on GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway at VerifiedInvesting.com navigated traders through a landscape defined by headline-driven rallies, key technical patterns, and a blockbuster crypto resurgence. With a weekend of US–China trade talks looming and major earnings reports behind us, the charts hold the real story. Below, we expand on Gareth’s probability-based trading framework, adding historical context, actionable levels, and psychological insights to help you trade smarter—whether you tuned into the show or not.
1. News Drivers and Fading “Carrots”
Equity markets have been buoyed by a steady drip of trade-deal headlines. Yesterday’s UK trade agreement sparked a near-2% S&P 500 futures pop before reversing into a modest +0.7% close. As Gareth noted, “It was really low-hanging fruit, and that’s why we saw the markets fade from their highs.” This weekend, US–China talks—and the prospect of cutting tariffs to 80%—have become the next “carrot.” Yet even an 80% tariff would still deter most imports.
Putting it in context, headline rallies often exhibit diminishing returns. In past cycles, markets rallied on early trade-deal hopes only to stall once details failed to support significant flows. As Gareth warned, “Eventually, that will wear out its welcome.” Traders should watch for real, substantive agreements versus mere rhetoric.
2. S&P 500: Gap Fill and Trendline Test
On the daily S&P 500 chart, we remain trapped under a key descending trendline—originating from the post-“liberation day” plunge—and just beneath the major gap from late April. After fully retracing that collapse, the index has carved out a slightly bullish consolidation pattern.
“Probability based trading ultimately is the best versus emotional trading,” Gareth reminded viewers, highlighting the need for objective breakout criteria. A daily close above this trendline would confirm a bullish resolution and target S&P 500 5,800–5,835 in short order. Historically, gap-fill levels often act as magnets: during the April-May 2024 rebound, the S&P snapped back to fill a 3% gap before pausing. A repeat this time could set the stage for the next leg higher.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: trendline (~5,780 on futures; ~5,800 on the cash index)
- Bullish target: 5,835
- Bearish invalidation: failure to close above trendline
3. NASDAQ 100 and the Yield Dynamic
The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) carved out a classic bull-flag consolidation and even hinted at an inverse head and shoulders. After poking above its pivot at 488, it’s trading near 490 in the pre-market.
Breaks from bull flags historically resolve in the flagpole’s direction nearly 70% of the time. However, this setup coincides with a breakout in bond yields. “What we do know is that higher yields mean higher interest rates, higher 30-year mortgage rates, and ultimately it makes borrowing money more expensive, which is a negative for the economy,” Gareth explained.
Higher yields can be bullish for equities if driven by stronger growth expectations, but bearish if reflecting rising inflation or diminished foreign demand for U.S. debt. The 10-year Treasury yield has formed its own bull flag. Should yields confirm north of 4.25%, tech-heavy Nasdaq sectors could face renewed pressure—even as QQQ nears its upside target.
Watch:
- QQQ support: 488 pivot
- QQQ resistance: 492–494 (flag break target)
- 10-year yield break confirmation: 4.25%
4. Currency and Commodities Snapshot
U.S. Dollar
The dollar index has carved a bear-flag after a brief rally. Inside-bar action suggests more consolidation ahead unless a breakout above 104.00 kicks off a fresh leg higher.
Gold and Silver
Gold plunged off its 2025 highs, printing a bearish topping tail right at a decade-long trendline tracing back to 2011 highs. “The topping tail on the daily was the bearish reversal signal that I’ve been watching for,” Gareth noted. A minor bounce is possible, but unless we reclaim the daily close above the topping-tail high (~$2,345), gold likely rolls over toward $2,200.
Silver remains rangebound between $24.50 and $26.00. With gold under distribution, expect silver to follow unless real yield declines spur fresh buying.
Oil and Natural Gas
Crude oil rallied off $62.50 support but stalled near $64.50. This level was support through 2023–24 and now acts as resistance. A short into the 65.50–66.00 zone offers a textbook fade setup.
Natural gas has bounced to $3.85 and now eyes the $4.00 barrier. Given the recent supply surplus and seasonal demand lull, a reversal around $4.00 could mark a high-odds short entry.
5. Earnings Season Trade Setups
Gareth parsed several post-earnings moves, emphasizing day-trade levels over swing trades when patterns lack multi-factor confluence.
• Trade Desk (TTD): After a surge to $67.50 in pre-market action, the first day-trade short level sits at $72.00, where prior gap-down bounces have stalled. A swing-short would require a rally into the $85 gap window.
• Pinterest (PINS): The stock tagged its $31.40 gap fill pre-market. Next resistance for a day fade is $34.00–$35.00, keyed by multiple pivot highs. A swing-short might emerge nearer $39.00 if the rally endures.
• Expedia (EXPE): Down ~9% on earnings, EXPE trades against its $144.50 pivot‐low zone, where bounces historically occur. A day-trade long off this level offers a disciplined approach—avoid swing trades until higher-timeframe confluence appears.
• Cloudflare (NET): Riding a post-earnings pop, NET faces its $143.80 gap-fill. Day-trade longs near that level can capture the momentum extension.
• WOLF (Wolf Speed): Downgraded amid stripped Chips Act funding, WOLF is trading near $3.22. A lottery-style long around the $1.00 trendline is conceivable, but it carries existential risk. “They may not survive, but at the right price I'd nibble,” Gareth admitted, underscoring the need for ultra‐selective sizing.
6. Crypto Resurgence: Highs and Hedges
After months of underperformance, crypto finally caught a bid—driven by broader risk-on flows and technical breakouts.
Bitcoin
BTC/USD blasted above its long-term parallel channel dating to the 2017 highs. “I started nibbling on a short late yesterday on Bitcoin. I am slightly just a starter toe in the water on the short side here,” Gareth revealed. Key levels:
- Short entries: 106,000
- Maximum risk zone: 113,000 (upper channel boundary)
Historically, this trendline has marked multi-year reversals (2017 high, 2021/22 peaks). A failure near 113,000 would align with past turning points.
Ethereum and Altcoins
Ethereum cleared a prolonged bull flag, ripping back toward its May 2024 high. Rejections near that zone echo the 2018 consolidation cap. Other altcoins—Cardano, Avalanche, Near Protocol—joined the rally, with NEAR’s 16% gain channeled as a Smart Money Crypto profit. Still, these “left-for-dead” assets often exhibit sharp short squeezes that exhaust quickly.
“Patterns tend to repeat because human nature doesn’t change over thousands of years,” Gareth quipped, highlighting why charts retain their edge even in speculative arenas.
Conclusion: Chart-Driven Discipline in a Noisy World
As Gareth emphasized, “Just simply looking at the charts and learning them and then learning probabilities and multifactor setups can give me at least equal to, if not beating the institutions in this game of investing.” In an age of algorithmic dominance and headline overload, technical patterns distilled through a probability lens remain a level playing field.
Key takeaways:
- News catalysts can rally markets, but only real trade and data deliver lasting moves.
- S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 signal potential breakouts—watch defined levels for confirmation.
- Rising yields pose the greatest risk to growth-style indices.
- Commodity trendline tests warn of near-term reversals in gold and oil.
- Earnings season still offers day-trade setups, but multi-factor confluence is crucial for swing trades.
- Crypto’s rally is broad but ripe for tactical shorts at historic trendline caps.
By focusing on clear entries, exits, and probability-based sizing—and by acknowledging that “there’s always another trade”—you’ll navigate the charts with both confidence and humility. Have a great Friday, and we’ll see you next week on GAME PLAN REVEALED.
