GAME PLAN REVEALED: Bond Auction, S&P Technicals & Key Trade Levels

This morning on GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected the latest market developments—from U.S.–China tensions to bond auctions, from major earnings to critical technical setups. In today’s article, we’ll unpack the underlying forces driving market moves, provide historical context, and highlight actionable levels for traders and investors. Whether you tuned in live or are joining us for the first time, you’ll gain clarity on how to position yourself as the trading week unfolds.

1. Global Tensions and the 20-Year Bond Auction

Relations with China have deteriorated overnight after Beijing threatened legal action over U.S. restrictions on Huawei chips. This renewed geopolitical friction adds downside pressure to equities, especially after an extended overbought run.

At 1:00 p.m. Eastern, the Treasury will hold its first major 20-year bond auction since Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt. “We need to see what the demand is from the global picture,” Gareth warned. Foreign buyers may demand higher yields to absorb our long-dated debt—pushing rates higher and weighing on stocks.

Historical context: after the last major bond auction in mid-2023, strong demand helped cap the 10-year yield around 3.8%. Today, with yields already above 4.5%, nearing 4.54%, any further uptick could trigger broad market weakness. Watch this auction as a barometer for global confidence in U.S. credit and a potential catalyst for afternoon volatility.

2. S&P 500 Technical Setups: Will the “Buy the Dippers” Return?

S&P futures slipped to around 5,933 in overnight action. On the chart, an inverse head and shoulders is forming—suggesting a possible rebound if the right shoulder emerges. “If we curl up into the open, this could be a little inverse head and shoulders signaling buy-the-dippers will be back,” Gareth noted.

Key levels:

Break above 5,933: could retest flat-line and ignite a rally.
Breakdown below the overnight low: negates the pattern and opens the door to fresh selling.

On the daily S&P chart, price is grinding into key resistance from the past month. This sideways chop could form a bull flag, implying continuation higher if resolved to the upside. Conversely, a decisive rollover here would invalidate that bullish pattern and signal a more meaningful pullback.

Traders should prepare for both scenarios—scaling into long positions above the right shoulder and shorting breakdowns below the inverse head’s low.

3. The Yield-Equity Interplay: 10-Year Yields at a Crucial Juncture

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4.5%, nearing 4.54%. Gareth maintains a target of 4.74% before a sustained equity pullback. “Yields up, markets down,” he reminded viewers, pointing to yesterday’s pattern: as yields rose modestly, stocks dipped, then rallied back when yields eased.

Historically, the 10-year yield has led markets, especially since 2022’s rate-hiking cycle. Rising yields compress equity valuations—most acutely for high-growth tech names. Investors should monitor:

The 4.74% level on the 10-year as a likely tipping point.
The 20-year auction’s result for clues on demand and future yield trajectories.

Maintaining awareness of this inverse relationship can help traders anticipate equity reversals before they unfold on price charts alone.

4. Select Equity Setups: Short and Swing Candidates

JPMorgan and Robinhood: Short-Setup Alert

Several financial names have made meteoric runs into all-time high territory. For example, Robinhood rallied from $30 in April to over $60—a 100% move—forming a double top around $67. “You would expect some sort of pullback…short-term downside looks likely,” Gareth said.
Similarly, JPMorgan’s chart is exhibiting a late-stage distribution pattern. Both names are on our short list as profit-taking accelerates.

Target (TGT): Day-Trade and Swing Levels

Target shares fell on weak guidance despite solid sales. Key intra-day levels:

Support at $91, then $90 as the first buffer.
A double bottom near $88 could spark a day-trade bounce.

On a swing basis, look for gap-fill and pivot confluence just under $84. Below that, the retail slowdown narrative argues for deeper retracements—especially if a recession materializes later this year or early 2026.

Walmart (WMT): Valuation Warning

Walmart recently tagged a gap-fill/ double top area near $104. With a forward P/E of 35—on par with tech giants—it looks vulnerable if consumer spending weakens further. Gareth highlighted this as “an amazing shortable level” ahead of a potential recession-driven pullback.

VFC Corp. (VFC) and Wolf: Post-Earnings Trades

VFC cratered from $29.30 in 2021 to today’s levels. After disappointing earnings, watch the 11.85–11.75 zone for an aggressive day-trade short. Further support sits at $9.50.
Wolf, meanwhile, faces looming bankruptcy. Without the expected $750 million CHIPS Act lifeline, the stock is running out of runway. Day traders may find transient bounces, but bankruptcy risk argues for caution.

BU (Ticker BU): Earnings Pop

BU spiked to nearly $93 on earnings, then gave some back. With the initial thrust behind us, traders should respect intraday resistance and look for retracements toward the breakout level before committing to new longs.

5. Crypto and Precious Metals Crossroads

Bitcoin: Bull Flag Near All-Time Highs

Bitcoin confirmed a bull flag yesterday and briefly traded above $108,000—within $1,000 of its all-time high. “Just the fact that we remain above 105,000…favors at least a touch of the all-time highs,” Gareth said, while cautioning that stalled momentum could signal waning buyers. A daily close above 105,000 keeps the path open to 109,000; failure risks a deeper pullback.

Gold and Silver: Divergent Fortunes

Gold continues to grind higher, buoyed by uncertain bond-auction outcomes. A break above its recent highs could see a swift move to new multi-year levels.
Silver has broken out of a bull flag and closed above its down-sloping trendline. With a short-term target of 34.50 and longer-term potential toward 37–38, silver remains a top pick for precious-metals bulls.

Palladium and Platinum: Industrial Metals in Focus

Palladium’s breakout through a long-term pivot near $1,300 sets up a run toward $1,250 on the next test of strength.
Platinum completed an inverse head and shoulders and hit its measured move. The upcoming resistance zone around $1,095 is critical—clear that, and further upside could follow.

6. Commodities Snapshot: Copper, Oil, and Natural Gas

Copper is chopping sideways in a pattern that leans bearish.
Oil spiked on reports of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities but has since retraced. With U.S. production at record highs and OPEC+ easing, oil remains range-bound near $65–66—an ideal shorting zone on any rally into that area.
Natural Gas surged 8–9% yesterday after six straight down days (a classic time-count bounce). With today’s pause in the middle of its range, we remain sidelined until a clear pattern emerges.

7. Conclusion: Navigating Overbought Conditions

Markets are dangerously overbought: the Nasdaq is up 30% from its lows; the S&P, 22%. Few 1% down days in recent months have lulled retail into “buy-the-dip” complacency. Combined with China’s saber-rattling, a critical bond auction, and stretched valuations, the rug could be pulled at any moment.

Key takeaways:

Monitor the 20-year auction at 1:00 p.m. for yield guidance.
Trade the S&P’s inverse head and shoulders with strict stops.
Respect high-probability short setups in financials, retailers, and post-earnings laggards.
Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s 105,000 level and precious metals’ bullish patterns.
Watch commodities for early signs of economic softening.

Discipline and probability-based setups are your edge. As Gareth reminded viewers, “if you follow the charts, your odds of success go up dramatically.” Use these technical roadmaps, stay humble, and be ready to adapt when the next big market move arrives.