GAME PLAN REVEALED: 05/29/2025

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, dissected the market’s two most impactful overnight developments—NVIDIA’s stronger-than-expected earnings and the federal court’s invalidation of recent blanket tariffs—and what they mean for key technical levels across equities, currencies, rates, and commodities. Today’s article expands on his analysis, adding historical perspective, psychological insights on trade execution, and deeper context for the setups he highlighted.

1. Major News Catalysts: NVIDIA Beat and Tariff Ruling

Late yesterday, NVIDIA reported earnings that topped consensus estimates, sending futures modestly higher. Shortly after, a judge ruled that the broad tariffs imposed on “Liberation Day” lacked valid statutory authority, igniting a powerful rally in S&P futures that briefly approached a 2% gain.

“We saw the S&P ripping higher to the point where it was almost up 2% overnight. Now... we are only up about three-quarters of a percent,” Gareth noted, pointing out how quickly the rally faded once traders recognized that narrower, sector-specific tariffs—like the auto levies enacted on national-security grounds—remain in force. Historically, headlines that suggest an end to trade friction often generate knee-jerk rallies that unwind as market participants parse the ruling’s true scope. Understanding this dynamic can help traders anticipate both initial breakouts and subsequent reversals.

2. S&P 500’s Resistance Battle at 5,965

The S&P 500 futures punched above the critical 5,965 level overnight but promptly gave back more than half of the rally. On the daily chart, 5,965 has emerged as a line in the sand:

“Any close above this line here, I think you go test the all-time highs. If it can’t close above there… the market remains vulnerable for a reversal,” Gareth explained.

Gap fills tend to act as magnets, drawing price back to test them before new trends can extend. Should the S&P break and hold above 5,965 on a daily close, the path toward the all-time highs becomes much more likely. Failure to close convincingly could invite a pullback toward the prior trading range lows, reinforcing the importance of waiting for a true close rather than an intraday poke.

3. Nasdaq’s Relative Strength Fueled by NVIDIA

While the S&P gave ground, the Nasdaq 100 managed to cling to more of its overnight gains—largely thanks to NVIDIA’s outsized weighting in that index.

“Notice how the fade on the Nasdaq is not as dramatic as the S&P… Nvidia and the chip stocks make up a big portion of the Nasdaq 100,” Gareth emphasized.

Indeed, NVIDIA’s 6% pop in pre-market trading offset weakness elsewhere, keeping the tech benchmark afloat. Historically, mega-cap earnings beats can decouple the Nasdaq from broader market action, creating divergence trades. Investors monitoring this split might rotate into other tech names that haven’t yet broken key levels, or tactically reduce S&P exposure if the large-cap rally looks precarious.

4. Dollar and Treasury Yields React to Trade Policy News

The U.S. dollar (DXY) gapped up on the tariff-ruling headline—reflecting its safe-haven status when broad trade barriers appeared to be lifted—only to retreat once traders revisited the nuances of presidential tariff authority.

“The bearish pattern is still intact. But look at how the dollar gapped up… then faded,” Gareth said.

A similar pattern emerged in the 10-year Treasury yield, which spiked before giving back most of its advance. Historically, tariff relief is dollar-bullish and yield-bullish, since lower trade costs bolster U.S. growth prospects. Yet when market participants realize that targeted tariffs can still be imposed, the initial bid unwinds. Technicians should note that both DXY and yields remain within their broader down-trend channels, suggesting any rally is likely to encounter stiff resistance until trade-policy uncertainty recedes.

5. Earnings Setups: NVIDIA, Salesforce, SentinelOne, and HP

Beyond the giants, Gareth scanned recent earnings reactions to identify intraday and swing-trade levels:

NVIDIA (NVDA)

NVIDIA surged toward the pink trend line drawn from its March highs, touching the pre-earnings pivot before rolling over.

“Once you hammer on a level more and more… the odds are it’s going to eventually break down,” Gareth reminded viewers.

The first test of that trend line offered the highest-probability short on the intraday chart. Having seen that initial reaction, traders now shift their focus to a fresh resistance zone near 148. A new intraday short could be considered on a first approach to that level, while breakouts above 148 would invalidate the bearish case and open the door to higher targets.

Salesforce (CRM)

CRM initially rallied above yesterday’s close of 276 post-earnings, then reversed and drifted lower to around 272.

With only a $4 move on a $270 stock, Gareth suggested patience:

“Unless we see a bigger move intraday, there’s not a compelling day-trade here… the first level I would eye is around the gap fill at 250.”

Below 250, the next confluence of pivot lows sits near 244. Swing traders, however, would likely wait for a deeper flush toward 230–235 to justify multi-day exposure.

SentinelOne (S)

Cybersecurity name SentinelOne traded around 16.70 in pre-market, nearing a gap fill at 16.35 and a double-bottom pivot at 15.95.

Gareth labeled this range a possible day-trade zone:

“This could be a tradable low today… for a starter position, followed by 15.60–15.50 support on the trend line.”

He cautioned that true swing candidates require deeper retracements—perhaps into the 13–14 area—where the stock would be both more oversold and at stronger support.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ)

HPQ plunged to 22.60 before rebounding toward 24.50—already a near-10% recovery off the low.

“It would have to take the low out at around 21.30 for me to get involved,” Gareth noted.

A breakdown below 21.30 could invite a bounce play toward 23, while any rally above 25.50 would shift the setup into invalidation.

6. Bitcoin’s Short-Term Pattern and Risk-On Role

Bitcoin has mostly traded in tandem with equities over the past month, reaffirming its risk-on correlation. Today’s small advance formed an inside-bar candle—a classic short-term bearish signal.

“Inside bar pattern developing… as long as we stay in this sideways choppy area, this is a bearish short-term pattern,” Gareth warned.

A break below 11,190 would target 10,800–11,000 support, while a clean violation of today’s high near 11,390 would shift focus back to the rising trend line now drawing toward 11,500 in late June. Traders should remember how this sloping line has gained roughly 1,000 points per month—a critical detail for projecting future inflection points.

7. Precious Metals: Gold, Silver, Palladium, and Platinum

Tariff relief initially drove gold down, but the metal quickly rebounded as traders braced for fresh trade-policy battles.

“Gold initially sold off, but then look at gold coming right back up,” Gareth observed.

Silver held its up-sloping support line, confirming a bullish consolidation. Palladium pierced then slingshotted back above its retracement level—textbook behavior when a “scene of the crime” support holds. Platinum formed an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout and has since consolidated near its recent highs. The divergence between palladium’s sharp pullback and platinum’s steady march higher offers tactical pair-trade opportunities for metals traders.

8. Oil and Natural Gas: In No Man’s Land

Oil futures spiked on tariff optimism but have since languished in a narrow range.

Gareth likened trading oil in this setup to a low-odds proposition:

“If something’s like 50/50 or even 60/40… I’d rather go to the casino and play blackjack with my buddies.”

As long as oil stays below $65–66 and doesn’t confirm above that resistance, the long-term bearish pattern remains intact. Natural gas, meanwhile, sits between defined intraday resistance and support, leaving no clear high-probability setup for traders at this juncture.

Conclusion: Discipline Amid Uncertainty

Yesterday’s NVIDIA strength and the court’s tariff ruling underscore the market’s sensitivity to headline risk. Yet the swift fade in equities, dollar, and yields reminds us that initial breakouts often reverse once the true policy implications sink in. Traders who anticipate both the rally and the retracement—rather than chasing one side—stand to benefit most.

Key takeaways:

• S&P 500 must close above 5,965 to validate a run at all-time highs.
• The Nasdaq’s divergence, powered by NVIDIA, highlights sector rotation risks.
• Dollar and 10-year yields remain in broader down-trends despite headline-driven spikes.
• High-probability trade setups hinge on first-tests of untested levels, not over-hammered pivots.
• Bitcoin’s inside bar warns of a short-term pullback unless 11,390 is cleared.
• Metals and energy require patience until clear multi-factor breakouts emerge.

Above all, maintain probability-based thinking and position sizing discipline. The market offers countless setups—prioritize only those with a 70%+ edge and clear risk parameters. As Gareth often says, “If I miss the trade, who cares? There’s always another trade.” By combining technical rigor with humble execution, traders can navigate policy whipsaws and headline shocks with confidence.