GAME PLAN REVEALED: 05/30/2025
This morning on GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, broke down the day’s most important headlines and dove into his favorite technical setups across equities, FX, bonds, commodities, and crypto. From a Truth Social rant on China and muted PCE inflation to pivotal S&P resistance levels and high-odds day-trade zones in individual stocks, today’s analysis gives traders a clear roadmap into next week’s market moves.
1. Flashpoint: Trade Tensions and Market Sentiment
Global markets opened sharply lower following an early-morning post by former President Trump targeting China’s trade posture. Gareth observed:
“Markets dipped basically right out of the gate” as tariff negotiations with China appeared to collapse. Equity futures plunged on the prospect that U.S. tariffs could spike back to 145%.
By 8:30 a.m., the April PCE inflation reading offered a lifeline: a 2.1% year-over-year gain, slightly under consensus, the Fed’s preferred gauge. “Overall inflation…was muted,” Gareth noted, and equities clawed back some losses. Yet the prevailing theme remains the same: trade policy is back at center stage, with real-world consequences. GAP’s stock tumbled over 20% despite beating sales and earnings estimates after warning tariffs will shave $150 million off profits this year. Higher input costs loom large and could eventually spill over into consumer prices—undermining the Fed’s progress on inflation.
2. Inflation Update: PCE Data Analysis
The Fed watches PCE inflation more closely than CPI. Today’s 2.1% pace confirms core prices remain contained, but several caveats deserve attention:
• Services inflation lags goods and can accelerate abruptly if labor costs rise.
• Tariff-driven costs, currently absorbed by corporations like GAP, often pass to consumers with a lag—potentially rekindling inflation later in the year.
• Fed speakers will scrutinize incoming core PCE and services data for signs of broad-based price pressures.
From a historical standpoint, the U.S. experienced a similar pattern in 2018–19: tariffs hit corporate margins first, then consumer spending softened only after prices rose. Traders should monitor consumption indicators (retail sales, consumer sentiment) for early warnings if inflation reaccelerates.
3. S&P 500: Resistance Zone Defines Bias
Yesterday’s euphoria—fueled by Nvidia’s blowout earnings and a judge’s ruling halting “Liberation Day” tariffs—briefly pushed the S&P futures above a critical zone. Gareth warned:
“If we close above this level, we’re going to go up and retest the all-time highs.”
Yet by day’s end, the index finished flat. The defining band now lies between 5,965 and roughly 5,980. On daily closes below 5,965, the technical bias remains slightly negative:
- Below 5,965: odds of a near-term pullback rise, opening the door to a retest of the 5,800–5,850 support zone.
- Above 5,965: a clean daily close clears the path back toward all-time highs around 6,100.
This resistance zone has flipped roles multiple times over the past month—support, resistance, support—and each test has bled off momentum. A sustained breakout would signal renewed buyer conviction, but until then, traders should favor tactical short-term setups on rallies into resistance.
4. USD and 10-Year Yield: Chart Patterns to Watch
US Dollar
After a gap higher on initial tariff news, the dollar collapsed but has reclaimed a minor bid today. The daily chart shows a flag-pole decline followed by an inside-bar consolidation. Unless the DXY can daily close above its descending trend line near 102.20, the bias remains bearish.
10-Year Treasury Yield
Yields spiked on trade-war headlines then quickly retraced. Today, the 10-year sits little changed near 3.70%. Watch for a daily close below the support trend line at 3.60% to signal a bearish resolution of the flag pattern—potentially easing pressure on equities. Conversely, a sustained breakout above 3.80% would force a reassessment of equity valuations, especially growth stocks.
5. Stock-Specific Technical Setups
Nvidia (NVDA): Post-Earnings Retracement
NVDA rocketed to a $143 open on Thursday but faded into session’s end. “It’s very hard to squeeze further upside,” Gareth explained, for a $3 trillion company that has climbed from $87 to $143. Now trading slightly lower, Nvidia remains in a corrective phase as traders digest the blowout report.
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO): Day-Trade Level
AEO tumbled from a close of 11.20 to around 9.90 after earnings. On the intraday chart, the first support pivot lies at 9.45, backed by a deeper zone down to 9.25. Gareth labels this a “day tradable” level—ideal for quick scalps targeting a bounce. A breach below 9.25 could accelerate selling toward the 7–8 area, but the initial range offers nimble traders a 20–30% swing within hours.
Gap Inc. (GPS): Day vs. Swing Criteria
GPS plunged from 27.80 to 22.65 overnight. For day trades, the key zone is 22.35–22.00, where multiple intraday pivots intersect. “This isn’t a swing trade level,” Gareth stressed, “these levels…are for today.” For a swing-trade thesis, zoom out to the April 2023 pivot low near 13.70 or the 13.70 gap fill—macro levels that justify a multi-week hold if price revisits these areas.
Ulta Beauty (ULTA): Countertrend Caution
ULTA popped 10% to stall at 470–475 on strong earnings. These intraday highs form a congestion zone that signals fading momentum. On a countertrend basis, shorting rallies above 475 offers a high-odds setup, although swing traders should await a retest of the April 3 gap down fill around 519 to enter broader-trend shorts. Gareth reminds us: “I generally focus on counter-trend… You never want to be the guy buying at peak irrationality.”
6. Commodities and Crypto: Patterns in Play
Bitcoin: Inside-Bar Breakdown
Two days ago, Gareth highlighted a wide-range reversal followed by an inside-bar formation at 109,000. “It was good for about a $5,000 drop,” he noted, as BTC briefly touched 104,500 overnight. Now sitting on the lows, BTC must defend the recent consolidation low at 104,500. A break below could slide into the next support near 97,000; a reclaim of the highs would target the prior pivot near 109,000.
Gold & Silver: Consolidation or Continuation?
Gold is testing a down-sloping trend line of resistance. Despite a slight pullback today, the chart favors the upside unless a key support level breaks. Silver continues sideways in a bullish flag off the April lows—holding its consolidation pattern keeps the upside bias intact.
Oil & Natural Gas: Sluggish Ranges
WTI Crude has chopped without a clear bias for the last two weeks. Nat Gas shows an immature inside-bar pattern, reminding traders that probability on early formations remains low until confirmed by multiple bars. Watch for clear resolution before taking a position.
Conclusion: Discipline and High-Probability Edges
Today’s session reinforced two core tenets of Gareth’s approach:
- Trading is a probabilities game, not a crystal ball.
- The highest-probability setups arise when multiple technical factors align at extreme sentiment levels.
From a slightly negative bias on the S&P—pending a clean daily close above 5,965—to bearish flags on the USD and potential countertrend fades in individual stocks, the technical roadmap is clear. Meanwhile, subdued PCE inflation relieves some Fed pressure, but tariff headlines remain the wild card.
As we head into next week, focus on:
• S&P daily closes around 5,965 – 5,980
• USD daily closes above 102.20 for bullish reversal
• Yield curve signals via 10-year yield at 3.60% – 3.80%
• High-odds intraday zones in AEO (9.45), GPS (22.35)
• Crypto and gold trend-line battles
Maintain patience, respect your levels, and let probability work in your favor. Have a great weekend—see you Monday on GAME PLAN!
