GAME PLAN REVEALED: S&P Range, Dollar Breakdown, and Gold Breakout

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected key technical levels across equities, currencies, commodities, and crypto to identify the top setups for today and the rest of the week. With the first trading day of June and the June jobs report looming, institutional flows, retail money moves, and critical chart patterns promise an action-packed session. In this article, we expand on Gareth’s insights, add historical context, and highlight the setups every trader should watch.

1. Institutional Catch-Up Versus Retail Dip Buyers

Last Friday’s intra-day rebound—following heavy-handed rhetoric on China from the White House—revealed a clear tug-of-war between institutions and retail.
“You had every reason on Friday to see the market selling off, but miraculously by midday, we went vertical back to basically the flatline.”

Over the past few weeks, lower-tier hedge funds have been buying at their fastest pace in years, racing to cover underweight positions as markets climb. Conversely, retail investors have been early dip-buyers, deploying new paycheck and 401(k) contributions at each pullback. Historically, the first trading day of the month tends to be neutral-to-positive—which makes today pivotal: a meaningful down day despite fresh retail inflows could signal a broader shift in market sentiment.

Key point: monitor whether the S&P 500 opens and closes in negative territory. A notable first-day decline would stand out against decades of positive month-open tendencies.

2. S&P 500 Futures: The 5,950–5,985 Range

On the daily ES chart, the 5,950–5,985 zone has flipped from support into resistance after multiple failed breakout attempts in May.
“This zone … is the determining factor if we see the all-time highs or not.”

If futures breach above 5,985 this week, we could see a quick “hop, skip, and jump” to the all-time high double top area around 6,040–6,050—and likely a slight pierce as algorithmic stops trigger buy orders. Historically, shattered double tops often spark short-covering rallies, fueling a final spike before a reversion. Conversely, a clear rejection here would open the door to a sharp pullback, as trapped bulls relinquish positions.

Traders should watch today’s open relative to this range. A sustained push above 5,985 on strong volume would set the path toward new highs; failure to muster a breakout threatens a swift reversal.

3. U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish for Gold

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken its long-term uptrend from 2021, connecting lows in September 2024 and early 2025. That trend line—once support—now acts as resistance.
“Once it broke, what do we know about this? This becomes resistance … the net direction is down.”

A fresh trend line break today could send the DXY toward the 96.00 area, defined by a 2011 pivot low. A weaker dollar typically augurs higher precious metals prices and adds fuel to commodity rallies. Watching the DXY back at the “scene of the crime” in the 100.50–100.75 area will reveal whether bears maintain control. A decisive close below 100.00 would reinforce the bearish bias and support a breakout in gold.

4. Gold and Silver: Divergence and Breakouts

Gold vaulted off its support zone near $3,140–$3,150, completing a bullish wedge consolidation.
“This is unconfirmed until we see the close, but … gold will continue to power up.”

Central banks and institutional buyers remain voracious gold purchasers—a multi-year lens suggests growing confidence that fiat currencies will weaken over time. With a soft dollar, gold could extend this breakout and test higher resistance levels as it confirms the move.

Silver has similarly consolidated in a bullish pattern. As long as its consolidation holds, look for a continuation higher. Traders should watch for a decisive breakout above the recent top of that range before adding new longs.

5. Energy Markets: Oil Stability, Natural Gas Bounce

Oil posted a steady bounce after OPEC maintained output cuts, signaling intent to cap U.S. shale profitability. By keeping prices in a range that pressures marginal U.S. wells, OPEC aims to reassert market control. Traders should watch for follow-through above this week’s highs or a breakdown below recent lows before committing new positions.

Natural gas jumped about 8% today but remains trapped between technical resistance overhead and support below. Until a clear breakout or breakdown, a range-bound approach best serves traders seeking defined risk.

6. Swing Trade Watchlist: Palantir, Netflix, Booking Holdings

Palantir (PLTR)
Palantir’s chart shows resistance in the 135 area, defined by a trend line connecting prior highs. A failure to clear this zone could set up a swing-short or put-credit spread targeting lower levels.

Netflix (NFLX)
“Negative divergence on the RSI … that’s a signal.”
Netflix exhibits a classic negative divergence: price highs outpacing RSI highs. Combined with resistance at the recent pivot highs, this setup carries a high probability of a pullback. Traders should watch for a loss of the near-term trend before adding short exposure.

Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Booking has rallied to trend line resistance from 2020, now sitting near 5,700. With signs of slowing travel demand—airline restraint and weaker international flows—the fundamentals align with a technical top. A failure to breach 5,700 would mark an attractive short zone, using puts or inverse ETFs.

7. Bitcoin: Science, Art, and Support Zones

Bitcoin’s recent decline respected a wide-range reversal candle and inside-bar bearish pattern. Gareth’s trend line—meticulously drawn from successive highs—remains unbroken overhead.
“This is where art meets science … you have to adjust trend lines.”

Support resides at the bottom of the current consolidation zone. A break here would open the door to the next lower trading range. Crypto traders should watch for stabilization before adding fresh longs, or a clear trend line break before initiating shorts.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Week Ahead

With the S&P futures stalling at key resistance, the U.S. dollar breaking down, and gold poised for a breakout, June’s first week promises critical directional clues. Add the June jobs report—where Gareth expects nonfarm payrolls to surprise to the downside—and markets could pivot sharply. Whether equities pierce all-time highs or falter at 5,985, the interplay between institutional catch-up buying, retail inflows, and macro data will drive price action. As always, using multi-factor technical confluence, probability-based targets, and disciplined risk management will be the edge traders need this week.