GAME PLAN REVEALED: Retail Rally, JOLTS Data & Key Technical Levels

The markets kicked off June with another retail-driven bounce, but looming economic data and key technical zones demand respect. In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, dug into probability-based trading, first-of-month money flows, the upcoming JOLTS report, and sector-specific setups that could define the days ahead. Below, we expand on Gareth’s insights, providing historical context, deeper analysis, and actionable levels for S&P futures, QQQ, small caps, consumer names, energy plays, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.

1. Retail-Driven Rally and First-of-Month Money Flows

Gareth opened with the familiar pattern of retail enthusiasm at month-end paydays and 401(k) contributions:
"First-of-the-month tends to be a positive day for the markets."

On June 2, the S&P 500 opened lower, then reversed to finish up about 0.5%, driven largely by smaller accounts deploying fresh capital. Historically, when institutions sit on the sidelines, this retail money flow can lift prices for a day or two before asset managers re-engage. Markets have rallied since the April 7th lows, but the question remains: how long before institutions decide to sell into this buoyancy? Until proven otherwise, Gareth’s neutral-to-positive bias assumes continued light-volume floats.

2. S&P 500 and QQQ at Resistance Zones

S&P Futures

The S&P futures chart shows overnight fades into this morning, followed by a recovery starting around 4:00 a.m. ET. Gareth reminds us:
"Assume it will be a float market until proven otherwise."

Resistance lies in the zone between 5,735 and 5,770. A close above the upper boundary would clear stops and likely propel the index toward its double-top all-time high near 5,900. Failing to break out could trigger a pullback, especially if institutional selling picks up.

QQQ (Nasdaq 100)

QQQ sits roughly 3% below its record highs, consolidating in a tight range. Like the S&P, a brief spike above 440 could draw in bulls, only to reverse once institutions begin trimming. This “hop, skip, and a jump” to new highs often marks a tactical inflection point for traders.

3. Small Caps Leading the Next Leg: Russell 2000 (IWM)

While the large-caps flag, the Russell 2000 is flashing a classic inverse head-and-shoulders:

Left shoulder at 185
Head at 180
Potential right shoulder forming near 185

This setup implies a breakout target around 195, just over 5% above current levels. In pre-market trading, IWM is already green while SPY is flat, suggesting small caps may lead the next thrust. Sector rotation into regional banks and beaten-down names could fuel this move.

4. Key Economic Data: JOLTS and Labor Market Signals

The resilience of retail flows hinges on a healthy labor market. Today at 10:00 a.m. ET, the JOLTS report will reveal job openings across the U.S. Tomorrow brings ADP private-sector payrolls, and Friday culminates with nonfarm payrolls. Gareth cautions:
"If you don't see a crack in the labor market, markets don't have a reason to go down."

But any signs of cooling in job openings or rising layoffs may prompt yields to roll over and equities to test support zones. Investors should watch both the headline JOLTS number and the quits rate for clues on worker confidence and corporate hiring plans.

5. Sector Spotlights: Consumer Staples and Energy Plays

Dollar General (DG)

DG stock is surging toward 107 amid evidence consumers are “trading down.” While a strong close suggests momentum, Gareth sees a short opportunity into the major gap fill at 123.80:

Day-trade pivot short near 115.40
Swing-trade short near 123.80

Shorting into good news lets you “pull the rug” once too many bulls are onboard.

Constellation Energy (CEG)

CEG vaulted to a double top at 366–368 after signing a 20-year deal with Meta Platforms. From the April lows, the rally exceeds 127.5% in a straight line—classic prerequisites for a blow-off top. Watch for institutional profit-taking around 368; a failed breakout could mark the start of a corrective leg.

6. Intermarket Analysis: US Dollar and Treasury Yields

The US dollar dipped below a key trend line yesterday but is fighting to recapture it today. A sustained close beneath 102 on the DXY index would confirm a breakdown and likely boost commodities and earnings-sensitive stocks. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield remains trapped in a large wedge:

Descending from 4.75%
Ascending from 3.80%

Gareth speculates one more surge to near 4.90% is possible, but weakening labor data could send yields tumbling toward 4.00%.

7. Commodities and Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Oil, Gas

Bitcoin

Bitcoin pulled back from 108,000 into the 96,000 pivot zone, generating an inside-bar reversal. A potential head-and-shoulders forming here could target a further drop to 90,000. Monitor the 96,000 level closely—any breakdown may echo broader risk-off flows.

Gold and Silver

Gold decisively broke its down-sloping trend line and, after a small pullback, remains above the breakout zone near $3,265. A confirmed close above that pivot would reinforce the bull case.
Silver rocketed higher on a bullish wedge breakout, then paused. As long as daily closes stay in the upper 50% of the large green candle from June 2, another consolidation and continuation toward $35 is likely. Verified options members booked 55% gains on SLV calls last week.

Oil and Natural Gas

Oil paused beneath the multi-year resistance zone at $82–85, where Gareth remains sidelined for now. Natural gas’s 8% spike yesterday merely negated the prior three days’ losses, and today’s 3% pullback underscores its volatility. Patience prevails: no high-probability setups yet.

8. The Discipline of Patience: Waiting to Pounce

The market generously rewards those who wait. Gareth illustrates this with the lion-in-the-bush analogy:
"You crouch until that one opportunity walks by, that zebra, and then you pounce."

Trading isn’t about constant action—it’s about discipline. Ignoring low-probability setups and resisting the urge to chase moves is what separates successful investors from the crowd. Over time, patience compounds into both trades won and losses avoided, paving the way to financial freedom.

Conclusion: Balancing Momentum with Caution

As the first week of June unfolds, markets are buffeted by month-end retail flows, critical labor data, and crowded technical zones. A break above resistance in the S&P and QQQ could ignite fresh momentum, while small caps are poised to lead if the inverse head-and-shoulders in IWM plays out. Yet the JOLTS report, ADP numbers, and nonfarm payrolls represent potential market catalysts that deserve respect. By combining probability-based trading, disciplined patience, and intermarket awareness, investors can navigate these crosscurrents with confidence. Remember: trade when your edge appears, not because the market tempts you to chase.