GAME PLAN REVEALED: Labor Signals, Key Technical Setups & Trading Psychology

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected a surprising labor‐market report, pivotal technical levels on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, intermarket cues from the dollar and Treasury yields, and high‐probability setups in stocks, crypto, and commodities. Below we expand on these themes—adding historical context, technical insights, and the essential psychology that keeps traders focused on probabilities rather than predictions.

Labor Market Weakness: ADP’s Miss and Friday’s Spotlight

The ADP private‐sector employment report surprised to the downside at 37,000 jobs versus the 111,000 estimate. While ADP is second-tier to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ non‐farm payrolls (due Friday), this miss raises the prospect of a genuine labor‐market slowdown.
"Once you see the labor market kind of weaken, things get really real for investors."

Historically, significant underperformance in ADP has often foreshadowed softer NFP prints. In late 2023, ADP’s consecutive misses preceded a string of weaker payrolls, which in turn pressured bond yields and fueled equity rallies on rate-cut expectations. The key question now: will Friday’s NFP reinforce ADP’s signal, or was this simply a data outlier? Traders should prepare for elevated volatility around Friday’s 8:30 a.m. ET release.

Key Technical Levels on SPY and QQQ

On SPY’s intraday chart, yesterday’s close aligned precisely with a critical pivot line that’s defined resistance since April. Gareth noted:
"If we close above it, then you should open the door to a move back to the high pivot here, which is your all-time high on the S&P 500."

After drifting higher this morning, SPY sold off back to flat on the ADP miss—yet remains in a rising intraday “float” pattern that’s prevailed all week. Traders buying every dip have driven a neutral-to-positive bias on month-start trading days for years, and this bias continues until disrupted by volume‐backed reversals.

On the QQQ daily chart, the Nasdaq 100 closed above its high pivot for the first time since early April—just 2.4% shy of its all-time high.
"The QQQ ... could again send it up here," Gareth said, highlighting how little upside is needed to trigger stop runs above last peaks.

Adding to the intrigue is a mid-June cycle date identified by Verified Investing’s head cycles analyst. If markets continue pushing into next week, a breakout into fresh highs could clear weak-handed bears right into a time window historically associated with strong reversals. Traders should plan for both scenarios—continued melt-ups or timely pullbacks around that cycle date.

Intermarket Signals: Dollar and 10-Year Yield Dynamics

A weakening labor market typically implies eventual Fed rate cuts, a dynamic that pressures the U.S. dollar. The DXY index has been “hammering” at a ten-day support line—closing below it on Monday, back above on Tuesday, and now retesting that level. A decisive break lower could reinforce the rate‐cuts narrative.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is carving a rising‐wedge pattern on the daily chart, with a short-term trend line from low pivot to low pivot now breached. This breakdown aligns with the ADP miss and could foreshadow further yield declines if Friday’s NFP underwhelms. As Gareth reminded viewers:
"On the weekends, I spend a lot of time researching these charts."
His weekend homepage analyses often highlight such intermarket setups, providing early clues on currency, commodity, crypto, and equity flows.

Stock Movers: Earnings Reactions and Parallel Trendlines

Earnings season continues delivering high-odds day-trade and swing-trade setups—especially when price patterns align with key pivot levels.

Crowdstrike (CRWD) fell sharply after beating earnings but missing revenue, trading near 450. A pseudo-parallel channel from July-August 2024 flagged resistance at the channel’s top, just ahead of earnings. Gareth said:
"This looks like it could fall on earnings ... and look at the dip on earnings."
Day traders should watch 443–444 for potential intraday support.
ASA (ticker ASA) popped post‐earnings then retraced. The 16.30–16.00 zone marks a significant shelf support on the daily chart. A bounce there could offer a low-risk entry for day traders.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) rallied on earnings. Short‐term resistance around 20.44, defined by two prior lows, may cap further upside. A breach above could invalidate the short bias.
Robinhood (HOOD) surged in pre‐market. A perfect parallel channel from pivot low to pivot low places major resistance at the 74.00 level.
"If we look at Robin Hood ... it's right up in the pre‐market into that level."
This setup works for both day trades and swing shorts—targeting mid-60s to low-60s over the next few weeks.
Semiconductors (SMH ETF) formed a bullish flag after a massive rally. A gap-fill plus down-sloping trend line converge at 261–262, presenting a compelling swing-short opportunity if SMH tags that zone.
CoreWeave (CORE) is up 360% in six weeks, reaching near 160 today. Though shares to short are scarce, the chart is textbook overextension. Expect a potential top near 160–175, with a sharp reversal likely once momentum stalls.
"When this thing comes in, it's going to come crashing down."

Crypto Spotlight: Bitcoin’s Inside Bar and Risk-Off Signal

Bitcoin has diverged from equities, trading flat while stocks push higher. It recently formed an inside‐bar bearish pattern—an obvious flag suggesting further downside. A break below 103,000 could open the door to a drop toward 96,000–94,000. Keep in mind Gareth’s observation:
"Bitcoin ... sometimes works as a leading indicator for the stock market."
A decisive breakdown in Bitcoin may portend broader risk-off flows ahead.

Commodities Check: Gold, Silver, Oil, and Natural Gas

Gold remains bullish after holding a key retracement line. The consolidation resembles a bull flag, setting up for a potential breakout.
Silver mirrors gold’s pattern, holding support and forming a possible bullish flag.
Oil is grinding higher, but the 65–66 area—once support and now resistance—would be an ideal short-entry zone if tested.
Natural gas sits in “trader’s purgatory,” neither at support nor resistance. Gareth emphasized the importance of patience:
"It doesn’t matter the trades that I miss ... It’s the trades that I take and what is my win rate?"
Discipline in waiting for predefined levels is the bedrock of consistent trading.

Trading Psychology: Embrace the Present

Missing trades is an inevitable byproduct of disciplined trading. Dwelling on opportunities you didn’t take only clouds judgment for today’s setups. Gareth advised:
"Forget what happened yesterday ... All you can do is stay in the present."
Cultivating that mindset—letting go of past trades and focusing on high‐probability setups—separates career traders from the crowd.

Conclusion and Outlook

As we head into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and approach a critical mid-June cycle date, markets sit on the brink of key technical inflection points. Weak ADP data has already rippled through equities, bonds, and currencies, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to labor metrics. Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ are within striking distance of all-time highs, and individual stocks present high-odds setups based on parallel channels, flag patterns, and gap fills.

Success in this environment hinges on:

Monitoring Friday’s NFP for confirmation of ADP’s signal.
Watching volume for signs of institutional reversals in the dip-buying pattern.
Respecting predefined levels in SPY, QQQ, stocks, and commodities.
Maintaining a probability-based mindset and present-focused psychology.

By combining technical discipline, intermarket awareness, and a calm, probabilistic approach, traders can navigate the week’s potential volatility with confidence.