In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, walked viewers through a market environment defined by quiet trading and imminent catalysts. With inflation data and a 30-year Treasury auction on the calendar, alongside ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations, momentum has stalled. Yet as Gareth reminded us, “when it’s quiet and there’s been a bullish move in the markets, that quietness usually leads to neutral to upside bias in the markets.” This article expands on his insights, exploring key technical patterns, warning signs, and high-probability setups across equities, bonds, commodities, and crypto.

1. Calm Before the Storm: Quiet Markets and Imminent Catalysts

Equity futures have ticked slightly higher each morning, embodying a market in limbo as traders await the next big news flow. Historically, these quiet patches—especially after a strong rally—often resolve with continuation to the upside. Yet the combination of upcoming inflation figures, a large Treasury auction, and trade-deal rumors sets the stage for volatility. As Gareth pointed out, “we’re kind of in this pocket now where later this week we’re waiting for inflation data as well as a 30-year bond auction.”

Traders should recognize that low-volatility interludes can precede sharp moves. Position sizing and clear levels will matter most when data or auction results break the stalemate.

2. S&P 500: Waning Upside Energy as Cycle Date Nears

The S&P 500 closed up just 0.1% yesterday, with intraday swings growing increasingly subdued. On the daily chart, the index’s grind higher has produced smaller and smaller candles, signaling a loss of upward momentum. This flattening comes just one week before a key cycle date—a time when past momentum extremes have often reversed.

Gareth’s thesis: we might see the S&P punch just above its all-time high to trap late bulls, then reverse after the cycle date. “Part of my possibility would be that we go up to our all-time high, pierce it by a little bit… stop out the weak-handed shorts, and then that cycle date potentially plays out with some down moves,” he explained. Traders should watch ATH behavior closely, using any short-lived breakouts as reversal signals.

3. Nasdaq’s Rising Wedge: Bull Trap Potential

The Nasdaq 100’s daily chart shows a classic rising wedge: a series of higher highs connecting nearly identical peaks, and higher lows forming a converging pattern. In most cases, rising wedges resolve to the downside. Occasionally, in bubble-like conditions, they deliver a brief breakout above resistance—a bull trap—before reversing sharply.

Key levels on the QQQ ETF:

• Upper trend line: testing last week’s swing high
• Lower trend line: support at converging lows

“If we establish ourselves below this, that would be… the warning sign for a market decline,” Gareth warned. A decisive break below the wedge’s floor would flip the neutral-to-bullish tilt into immediate bearish bias. Until then, traders can view the pattern as equilibrium, awaiting resolution at the wedge’s apex.

4. Bond Yields and Early Warning Signs

Ten-year Treasury yields recently broke down from a support trend line, rallied back for a retest, and then were rejected—“classic retrace to the scene of the crime,” as Gareth called it. This action mirrors early cracks in a frozen pond: cautionary but not yet catastrophic.

Rising yields often exert pressure on growth stocks and broader equity multiples. While the pullback has buttressed stocks short term, the failed rally at resistance hints at renewed upside in yields—and a potential headwind for equities. Traders should watch whether yields can climb back above the broken trend line; a sustained recovery would alleviate pressure on equities, while renewed strength in yields could herald rotation out of high-multiple sectors.

5. Semiconductors at a Crossroads: Nvidia and SMH

The semiconductor sector, an equity market bellwether, is flashing warning signs. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed to $145 yesterday—its highest short-term print—only to close back below a pivotal resistance line. That line represents both a prior pivot high and the earnings-gap high, making it a two-factor confluence.

Similarly, the SMH ETF tagged a downsloping resistance trend line connecting January and March highs, and now nears a February gap fill. Since the April 7th low, semiconductors have soared approximately 53%. While such a rally isn’t inherently bearish, hitting multiple technical barriers simultaneously creates a compelling short setup.

“This now… looks like a good shorting opportunity,” Gareth noted. Traders seeking to fade an overextended sector should consider:

• NVDA short below $145 with tight stops above pivot
• SMH short near the gap-fill level, targeting the April low

Risk-reward ratios improve when multiple resistance factors align, so keep position sizes disciplined.

6. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Resistance and Ethereum’s Breakout

As equities grind sideways, crypto markets have seen renewed action. Bitcoin (BTC) is pressing an uptrend resistance line near $112,500–$112,700, one that has capped rallies since early 2024. “Resistance is resistance until it’s broken,” Gareth reminded viewers. Until BTC convincingly clears and holds above this zone, the risk of rejection remains elevated.

By contrast, Ethereum (ETH) has completed a textbook bull-flag consolidation and broken out. Plotting past support-turned-resistance zones reveals a key cluster between $3,050 and $3,100—levels where ETH stalled during multiple prior advances. Probability-minded traders will:

• Respect BTC resistance until confirmed
• Position for further ETH gains toward $3,050–$3,100
• Reassess above that zone for a longer-term target near $3,400

7. Precious Metals: Gold’s Retrace and Silver Profit Taking

Gold broke above its downsloping trend line after four touches, then retraced to that breakout level—again a “scene of the crime” setup. The bias remains bullish as long as gold holds above that breakout trend line. If it slips below the line, gold would enter a neutral phase, and a decisive break would open the path down toward the $2,950 level.

Silver (SLV), meanwhile, has delivered a rapid 13% gain from its flag breakout. Facing major resistance dating back to 2012, Gareth opted to take profits rather than chase a further 2% upside at the expense of 5–6% downside risk. “How much more juice can I squeeze out of this orange versus should I just grab it…? And that’s what I did,” he explained. This disciplined exit underscores the importance of dynamic risk-reward management during extended moves.

8. Energy Markets: Oil Short Setup and Natural Gas Indecision

Oil has retraced to its “scene of the crime” level around $66, where buyers previously failed to defend support. A clear break and retest of that zone would offer a high-probability short opportunity. Gareth is waiting for price to pierce $66, then fade.

Natural gas remains trapped between conflicting patterns. A potential cup-and-handle suggests a bullish breakout; a bear-flag could signal further declines. With crosscurrents canceling each other out, “the real trade here is to do nothing,” Gareth advised. Waiting for unambiguous chart signals preserves capital and avoids low-edge setups.

9. Trading Psychology: Chart-Based Decisions and Patience

Above all, today’s GAME PLAN reinforced the principle of letting charts—and probabilities—drive decisions. By shutting off personal biases and trusting technical factors, traders can maintain higher win rates and avoid common pitfalls. As Gareth said, “If I can help you guys avoid a few pitfalls in your trading journey, then that’s what my goal is.” Discipline, clear levels, and patience remain the cornerstones of consistent performance.

Conclusion

Quiet markets seldom last forever. With key economic data, a major bond auction, and a looming cycle date, volatility may soon return. Traders who integrate the technical warnings—from the Nasdaq wedge and semis’ double resistance to Bitcoin’s cap and gold’s critical support—will be best positioned to navigate the next directional move. Remember to employ strict risk-reward criteria, respect unbroken resistance, and wait for high-probability setups. As always, let the charts, not emotions, guide your GAME PLAN.