GAME PLAN REVEALED: Cycle Date Risk, Oil Pivot & Market Technicals

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, walked viewers through a series of geopolitical shocks, cycle-date probabilities, and technical setups that are shaping today’s market action. From Israel’s overnight strikes on Iran to a fresh test of key trendlines in oil and equities, the interplay of world events and chart psychology has traders on edge as we head into a two-day market holiday. In this article, we expand on Gareth’s insights—adding historical context, deeper analysis, and practical takeaways you can use whether you watched the show or not.

Cycle Dates and Market Psychology

Geopolitical turmoil—Israel striking Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, an India plane crash, protests in Los Angeles—has coincided with a known cycle-date window. “I’ve done this for 26 years,” Gareth reminded viewers, “and these cycle dates, while they don’t always hit the nail on the head, there is something to them. More often than not, it’s probability-based.”

Cycle-date analysis blends time-based studies with psychological factors. Markets grinding higher into these dates often reverse, while those trending down may find short-term rallies. We saw S&P futures tumble from roughly 6,050 at yesterday’s close to a low near 5,925—about a 125-point drop—shortly after news hit around 8:00 PM Eastern. The key lesson: chart patterns reflect collective investor emotion. As we approach a risk-heavy weekend, holding large positions becomes uncomfortable, reinforcing bearish biases.

Technical Breakdown: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Semiconductors

S&P 500 Wedge Breakdown

On the daily S&P chart, a rising wedge connecting successive highs has failed support this morning. Historically, rising wedges break to the downside about 70% of the time, especially when a cycle date lines up. Pre-market gap levels that acted as support near 6,500 have flipped to resistance—a classic charting behavior. Unless the S&P closes back above that zone today, the odds favor further downside into next week.

Nasdaq 100’s Cracks

QQQ also opened below its rising wedge, made a brief retest at the upper trendline, and is now attempting a downside break. Growth-heavy tech remains neutral until a decisive close drives it back above or below the wedge.

SMH and Semiconductor Leadership

The SMH semiconductor ETF led this year’s rally but has stalled after filling a massive gap. It repeatedly closes just above its slump’s high without confirming a breakout. That choppy action signals waning upside leadership, a warning sign for the broader market.

Oil’s Warning: Conflict-Driven Spikes and Probable Reversal

Oil emerged as today’s standout story. Overnight futures poked above $77 before reversing sharply. Gareth identified two converging trendlines: a descending line through major highs and a parallel rising line through successive lows. “Could I be wrong? Of course I could,” he cautioned. “But probability shows that after conflict-driven spikes, oil almost always comes back in.”

Historical precedent: Middle East tensions often send crude to short-term peaks, only for prices to retreat as physical supply and demand fundamentals reassert themselves. OPEC is increasing output, U.S. production remains robust, and demand growth is slowing—factors that pressured oil after prior conflicts.

Chart-wise, $71.50 marks the lower parallel as support. A break below that could target the mid-$50s—the low end of the trend channel. Traders should watch for a modest bounce into the weekend (potentially up to $75), followed by renewed selling if no further escalation occurs Monday.

Safe Havens and Intermarket Signals

U.S. Dollar: A Failed Breakdown

The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded to its descending support-turned-resistance line after an unconfirmed break lower. In Gareth’s methodology, a true breakdown needs a close below yesterday’s low—which hasn’t happened yet. If the dollar decisively breaks down, commodities could surge; if it holds, dollar-denominated assets may underperform.

Treasury Yields: Rising on Fear?

Contrary to convention, 10-year Treasury yields have ticked higher this morning despite looming geopolitical risk. Typically, fear drives yields down as investors buy bonds. This minor yield uptick could be noise or an early sign of bond market complacency—one more intermarket indicator to watch.

Gold and Silver: Divergent Safe Havens

Gold, the classic haven, is breaking out above a recent consolidation and testing its $3,500 pivot high. A sustained move above that level would open the way toward new all-time highs.

Silver, while not a pure safe haven, has rallied above a long-term downtrend and is forming a bullish consolidation. Gareth advised patience: only buy on a pullback rather than chasing current levels.

Natural Gas: Sideways Consolidation

Natural gas remains range-bound with no clear directional bias. Traders can await a breakout or breakdown from this base before committing new positions.

Stock-Specific Setups: RH and Adobe

While commodities dominate today, selective equity trade ideas still offer opportunities.

Restoration Hardware (RH): A sizable gap from $249–250 marks a potential intraday short zone. If RH rallies into that gap today, expect a pullback off resistance.
Adobe (ADBE): After hours earnings pop to $445 gave way to a drop toward $390. The $383 gap fill level stands as a logical day-trade support. A break below could extend losses; holds may set up a bounce.

Trading Psychology and Defensive Positioning

Gareth stressed that the market’s greatest teacher is humility. “I’ve never met a cocky real trader,” he said. “As soon as you get cocky, the market punishes you.” Defensive positioning—maintaining dry powder, limiting single‐trade risk, and respecting multiple technical levels—is the key to long-term success.

Rather than chasing “perfect” trades, focus on probability edges: if a setup works 70–75% of the time, allocate smaller size and accept that 25–30% of the time it won’t. That discipline prevents one bad outcome from wiping out months of gains.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertain Waters

As we close out the week, the convergence of cycle-date probabilities, geopolitical shocks, and technical triggers sets the stage for heightened volatility. Key takeaways:

Rising wedges in major indices favor downside breaks.
Oil’s conflict-driven spike likely preludes a retracement toward the mid-$50s channel low.
Safe havens show mixed signals: gold and the dollar hold key chart levels, while yields and natural gas diverge.
Selectivity and defensive sizing remain paramount amid headline risk.

Keep an eye on weekend developments, confirm daily closes around critical trendlines, and remember that trading is ultimately a probability game. By blending chart discipline with a humble mindset, you’ll be best positioned to weather whatever shocks emerge next.