GAME PLAN REVEALED: Fed Preview, Wedge Breaks & Trade Setups

This morning on GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, laid out the charts, setups, and key events that will define the week ahead. With geopolitical tensions simmering in the Middle East and a highly anticipated Fed decision looming on Wednesday, traders must balance risk and opportunity across stocks, commodities, currencies, and crypto. Below, we expand on Gareth’s on-air insights, add historical perspective, and highlight the technical levels to watch.

1. Geopolitical Undercurrents Set the Stage

The weekend saw renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, spurring a classic “fear into Friday close” scenario. Oil jumped toward $77 on worst-case speculation, while stock futures slumped as traders worried about a closed market.

“No rate changes expected. But it’s all about Jerome Powell’s commentary.”

Historically, Middle East flare-ups generate short-lived spikes in oil and safe-haven assets, then fade as actual supply disruptions fail to materialize. Friday’s drop and this morning’s rebound in S&P futures echo past patterns: overblown weekend risk, followed by a Monday retracement.

Keep an eye on whether these geopolitical jitters give way to Fed-driven moves later this week.

2. Technical Breakdown: Wedge Patterns in Equities

On the daily charts, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 broke below rising wedge patterns—a bearish signal often signaling exhaustion of buying pressure.

“Up sloping wedges are bearish overall.”

• S&P 500 futures stalled at last Wednesday’s CPI pivot high—a textbook double-top in the making.
• The Nasdaq’s QQQ is trading below Friday’s high and remains outside its former wedge, down on the day despite today’s rally.

Historically, wedge breakdowns tend to retrace “to the scene of the crime” before resuming their decline. If ES can close back above 6,500, it would negate the breakdown; until then, traders should treat rallies as potential bounce-and-rollover setups.

3. Currency and Yield Dynamics

The U.S. dollar cracked a long-term uptrend, retraced back to its break-point, then flopped lower again. A confirmed close below last Thursday’s low would signal that institutional players aren’t defending the old support—a bearish turn for the greenback.

Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields rose slightly Friday and today, defying expectations of a flight to safety. Last week’s breakout and failed re-test of a yield wedge echo the equity setup: once the wedge broke, yields rallied back and then resumed their climb. Watching how yields interact with Fed commentary will be crucial—higher yields generally weigh on rate-sensitive stocks if sustained.

4. Swing Trade Spotlight: Stocks in Motion

Oracle (ORCL)

After powering from a low of $121 to $217 in two sessions on earnings, Oracle sits massively overbought, with negative RSI divergence on the weekly chart. A pullback toward the $199–200 gap-fill zone offers a high-probability short against the long trend–line resistance.

Roku (ROKU)

Roku shares are up again after an Amazon ad deal. The first shortable pivot is around $85, which also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off. A rejection at that level could fuel a sharp intraday reversal.

URRA (Global X Uranium ETF)

The uranium trade has exploded, with URRA rallying from $19 on April 7th to over $40 today. A parallel trend-line drawn from the 2020 low through April’s low converges near $40–41—an ideal zone to scout short setups as speculative euphoria runs hot.

Circle (CRCL)

Fresh from its IPO at $69, Circle now trades near $147. With no historical pivots, traders must wait for a clear bearish reversal signal—an engulfing candle or topping tail—before considering a swing-trade short.

Palantir (PLTR)

Palantir’s relentless run to all-time highs underscores the power of headline momentum. However, when stellar rallies stretch beyond technical parallels, enterprising traders look for early reversal patterns rather than chase the squeeze.

5. Commodities Snapshot: Oil, Precious Metals & Gas

Oil

Friday’s high at $77, guided by a parallel channel breakout, capped upside amid Middle East fears. History shows these spikes fade quickly. Today’s pullback fits that script, and traders who shorted near $77 may ride oil back toward its prior consolidation.

Gold & Silver

Gold pared Friday’s safe-haven gains as risk sentiment recovered. Silver, by contrast, is carving a bullish consolidation. A pullback to the prior breakout zone would offer a low-risk buying opportunity—provided support holds.

Natural Gas

A brief bounce followed news of an Iranian gas-plant hit, but gas remains trapped in a flat parallel. No actionable trade is apparent until price decisively breaks this range.

6. Crypto Corner: Bitcoin’s Wedge Battle

Bitcoin stalled after bouncing off support and now trades inside a short-term wedge within a larger wedge. The cryptomarket’s historical “wedge-within-wedge” formations often resolve explosively once one boundary gives way.

Until BTC breaks and confirms above resistance or below support, traders should respect the boundaries:
• Resistance trend-line from the lows
• Support trend-line from April

My bias remains bearish alongside equities, but conviction awaits a confirmed break.

Conclusion: Fed Focus and Trading Discipline

This week’s marquee event is Wednesday’s Fed decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Jerome Powell’s 2:30 p.m. press conference. Geopolitical headlines and triple-witching options expiration add noise, but the Fed’s tone on future rate cuts will likely dictate the next market leg.

Amid these catalysts, maintain disciplined entries:

Respect broken wedges until recaptured
Trade defined retracements (gap fills, pivots, Fibonacci)
Wait for clear reversal signals in high-volatility names

“Let’s go rock and roll. Make some money today.”

By combining multi-factor technical setups with sober risk management, traders can navigate the week’s swirling risks and opportunities with confidence.