GAME PLAN REVEALED: 06/17/2025
This morning on GAME PLAN REVEALED, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, walked viewers through a series of critical chart patterns, intermarket relationships, and high-probability trade levels. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flirting with all-time highs while key technical setups break down, today’s blog dives deeper into the underlying dynamics, historical context, and strategic implications for traders and investors.
1. Broad Market Charts: Wedge Breaks and All-Time High Resistance
Gareth kicked off the show by highlighting a bearish wedge breakdown on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 futures.
“We broke down below [the wedge pattern] very, very clearly here… unless it recaptures, I have to stay on high alert that we have a potential breakdown in play.”
On the S&P 500 daily chart, price fell sharply on Friday, rallied into Monday’s open to kiss the underside of the wedge, then was rejected—leaving the index below a key technical zone. With the S&P now down roughly one-third to one-half percent on the day, the question becomes whether this breakdown marks a change in market psychology.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) also broke its late-April/May wedge, attempted a bounce, but remains below the former support zone. Technically, the only way to reestablish a bullish bias on these charts is a decisive recapture of the broken wedge lines—currently acting as stiff resistance.
Historical precedent shows that wedge breakdowns, especially after extended uptrends like the one since early April, often lead to at least a short-term pullback or consolidation. Given that the current all-time high coincides with these wedge lines, traders face a binary technical scenario:
• If markets break above all-time highs and recapture the wedge lines, the path could open for another multi-percent rally.
• If resistance holds, a meaningful pullback or sideways chop is likely.
In technical trading, probabilities matter more than directional bias. As Gareth emphasized, “Technical traders that assume things are really not technical traders. They have to follow the charts, aka probabilities.”
2. U.S. Dollar and 10-Year Treasury Yields
Intermarket context remains critical:
- U.S. Dollar: Still trading below its recent support zone, signaling ongoing dollar weakness.
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: After two days of rally, yields have pulled back modestly today.
Weak dollar environments often support commodities and risk assets. Yet, falling Treasury yields can be a double-edged sword: they may relieve financing pressures on equities but also reflect growing economic uncertainty. Watching these relationships in real time helps traders gauge the odds of continuation versus reversal in equity markets.
3. Solar Stocks Under Pressure: SolarEdge, First Solar, Enphase
With yesterday’s Senate revisions to the taxing and spending bill cutting solar incentives, solar stocks are bearing the brunt of policy risk. Three names stand out for near-term trade setups:
SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG)
Down roughly 30% pre-market from around $16.10, SolarEdge gapped lower. As a day-trade candidate, the first support zone lies at $14.35–$14.40, defined by a pivot-low trend line.
Support zones:
• $14.35–$14.40 (pivot low to pivot low)
• Gap fill further below (requiring an additional ~$1.70 drop)
A snap back off $14.35 could offer a quick scalp. For swing traders, the gap fill zone provides a deeper, higher-probability entry.
First Solar (FSLR)
First Solar is under similar pressure. The hidden technical level at $130.75–$130.80, born of prior inside swings, may catch day-traders’ attention.
Support zones:
• $130.75–$130.80 (hidden pivot confluence)
• $125.70 (secondary support)
• $120.50 (double-bottom)
Given the pace of the decline, day-trade bounces off $130.75 are possible, while swing traders may wait for $125.70 or even $120.50.
Enphase Energy (ENPH)
Enphase has formed a down-sloping trend line that delivered reliable bounces near $34.25. Each test of this line historically prompted 20–30% recoveries over one to three weeks.
Key level:
• $34.25 (trend line support)
At that level, swing traders could target another multi-week bounce, echoing prior patterns from ~$37 to $46 and from $59 to $77.
4. High-Profile Names: Tesla and AMD
Beyond solar, traders are watching marquee tech names:
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla has repeatedly been rejected at ~$332. “Pivot low, gap fill, comes right up, rejected… we’re trading right there,” Gareth noted. With resistance that proven:
Resistance: $332
Breakout target: ~$367
Nearest support: $272
Shorting TSLA at $332 is risky given previous failed rejections. A better approach is to wait for a clear break of either side: a convincing rally above $332 for continuation, or a breakdown below $272 for a short.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
AMD has lagged other chips but rallied sharply the past two days. It now approaches a confluence zone:
Resistance:
• Pivot lows at ~$134
• Gap fill at ~$138
Historically, these levels prompted day- or multi-day pullbacks. Traders seeking a counter-trend short can watch the $134–$138 area for a high-odds rejection.
5. Bitcoin: Wedge Pattern and Risk-On/Risk-Off Dynamics
Bitcoin’s chart is wedged between converging up-trend and down-trend lines. Gareth explained:
“It works like a pressure cooker… you either break to the downside and probably go straight down, or break to the upside and go to $120,000.”
Earlier support around $95,000–$93,000 forms the lower wedge line. A break below that could coincide with a 5–10% equity pullback. Conversely, a break above the upper line could propel Bitcoin toward $120,000.
Adding bearish weight, Bitcoin’s price action has formed an inside-bar consolidation after the down move—classic bearish continuation territory. If equity markets slip, Bitcoin may follow into the mid-$90,000s.
6. Precious Metals: Gold, Silver, and Uranium
Gold
Gold remains flat on the day after pulling back in yesterday’s risk-on environment. With geopolitical jitters rising—Trump’s Truth Social post about Tehran evacuations—gold is inching higher.
Silver
Silver has broken out of a bullish wedge, just as Gareth anticipated: “That’s case-in-point technical analysis 101.” After unloading positions near resistance, traders can wait for a retracement into the former wedge apex for reentry.
URA (Global X Uranium)
URA formed a topping tail (bearish reversal candle) on strong volume. This candlestick suggests an impending pullback in uranium-related names. Key support to watch lies near the ETF’s consolidation range lows for potential bounce points.
7. Energy Markets: Oil and Natural Gas
Oil
Despite a bounce this morning on risk-off headlines, oil has failed to reclaim its highs from recent news-driven spikes. Gareth believes the upward move is exhausted and that oil is likely to roll over and revisit lower pivot areas. Traders could short rallies back into the prior high under the assumption that the bulls lack follow-through.
Natural Gas
Natural gas is trading within a tight parallel channel, oscillating between defined support and resistance lines. Until a clear break, day-traders can fade the extremes of the channel, while swing-traders await a breakout for a directional play.
Conclusion: Chart-First, Probability-Driven Trading
As we approach Wednesday’s Fed statement and press conference, traders face a binary technical environment across asset classes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq wedges either need recapture for a bullish continuation or will confirm a pullback on failed retests. Solar stocks illustrate how policy news can spawn high-volatility day-trade opportunities, while tier-one tech names like Tesla and AMD highlight the importance of respecting proven support and resistance levels.
Intermarket cues—dollar weakness, yield retracements, and geopolitical developments—add nuance to these setups. Above all, Gareth’s message remains clear: “We’re technical traders—we follow probabilities, not narratives.” Patience, discipline, and respect for chart-defined levels will guide traders through the coming sessions, whether markets sustain new highs or unwind to lower supports.
