GAME PLAN REVEALED: FOMC, Iran Risk & Key Technical Levels

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, laid out the key technical levels and fundamental catalysts that could drive markets today and in the coming weeks. With the FOMC policy decision and press conference at 2:00 and 2:30 pm Eastern on the calendar, plus escalating geopolitical headlines around Iran, the tape is set for potentially heightened volatility. This article expands on Gareth’s analysis—offering historical context, deeper technical insight, and the psychological framework traders need to navigate choppy conditions.

FOMC Preview and Geopolitical Risk

Today’s two pm FOMC policy announcement is expected to leave rates unchanged, but all eyes are on the commentary from Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 pm. Markets currently price in 1–2 rate cuts by year-end. “If he alludes to more rate cuts, maybe 2 or 3, markets likely rally higher. If he alludes to 1 or 0, the markets likely sell off,” Gareth explained.

This dynamic echoes past Fed communication-driven moves. In December 2023, for example, a more dovish Fed statement sparked a 4% S&P 500 rally in two trading days, only to reverse when subsequent data tempered rate-cut expectations. Traders have learned that policy “dots” and forward guidance can ignite violent one-day moves on both sides of the tape.

Overlaying central bank uncertainty is geopolitical noise. Gareth noted that markets sold off yesterday after former President Trump’s Truth Social posts demanding “unconditional surrender” from Iran and hinting at possible U.S. military action. “My hypothesis is…if it does happen, it will likely be tonight after the stock market closes,” he said, highlighting Juneteenth market closure on Friday as an ideal window for any escalation.

History shows that geopolitical shocks often trigger knee-jerk volatility followed by rapid mean-reversion once clarity emerges. For example, the October 2019 U.S.–Iran drone incident spiked gold and oil for two sessions before equities climbed back 3% after de-escalatory diplomatic comments. Traders should brace for whipsaw price action around both Fed speak and any Iran headlines, keeping position sizes tight and levels front of mind.

Technical Breakdown of Major Indices

S&P 500: From Upsloping Wedge to Key Support Levels

The S&P 500 broke below an upsloping wedge last Friday, retested the pattern’s lower trendline on Monday, and then resumed its slide Tuesday. “As a technician, I have a very specific level…If we break 5,960, the markets likely get another leg down,” Gareth said.

• 5,960: Today’s near-term pivot. A decisive close below this floor could target the 5,800 gap fill—coinciding with a former resistance-turned-support zone.
• 5,660: The next major support if 5,800 fails, aligning with a prior pivot low from earlier this cycle.

This stair-step approach to support levels echoes classical Dow Theory and trend-channel analysis dating back over a century. Rather than assuming a freefall after a breakdown, technical traders map out these successive “floors” where bulls and bears will contest control.

Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): Mirroring the S&P

QQQ exhibited a similar breakdown from its wedge last Friday, bounced on Monday, and has since drifted lower. Like the S&P, the Nasdaq remains in a sideways grind ahead of Fed and geopolitical catalysts. A break below its pivot low from last Friday would likely send QQQ toward its gap fill near recent cycle lows, perhaps near the 60% retracement of this advance.

10-Year Treasury Yield: Watching Defined Floors

Bond yields have chopped since breaking a key support level, oscillating between 4.32%, 4.26%, and the low-pivot at 4.13%. Gareth emphasized these as clear levels to watch:

• 4.32%: Former support. A break below invites a drop toward 4.26%.
• 4.26%: Secondary pivot. Failure there could retest 4.13%, the swing low from last month.

This disciplined level-based approach to bonds mirrors equity analysis: define floors, watch for tests, and manage risk around each test rather than getting caught off guard by headlines.

Economic Indicators: Jobless Claims & Housing Starts

Two data points out this morning add nuance to the Fed debate: weekly jobless claims and May housing starts.

Jobless Claims: A Gradual Trend Change

Initial claims came in at 245,000—down slightly from last week’s revised 250,000 but above the multi-month 210–225k range. The four-week average sits near 240–242k, marking a subtle uptrend in layoffs. Gareth cautioned, “If it were to continue…next week we go above 250, then 260, then 270. That…is a trend change.”

Historically, sustained claims above 260k have presaged mild recessions. In early 2020, claims spiked from 200k to 300k in two weeks, signaling the onset of the pandemic-driven downturn. We’re not at those levels yet, but the creeping increase bears watching as the Fed considers any further rate-cut signal.

Housing Starts: Reflecting High-Rate Headwinds

May housing starts were “much, much weaker than expected,” reflecting 30-year mortgage rates near cycle highs. As Gareth noted, “With interest rates on the 30-year where they are, the housing market…continues to be in trouble.”

Slowing housing activity can cool consumer spending via the wealth effect and dampen construction-sector employment. The Fed will factor these soft spots into its policy calculus, especially given the central bank’s dual mandate to support both growth and price stability.

Individual Stock and Sector Analysis

Meta Platforms (META): Grinding Against a Resistance Zone

Meta is battling a broad resistance band between $708–715—anchored by a gap fill and prior pivot. Gareth observed, “This level here is the big bull and bear fight going on.”

After Meta’s monster rally from 2022 lows, such congestion zones often induce extended consolidation or pullbacks. Traders who bought earlier in the move may use this area to lighten positions, creating supply. A break above $715 would flip this zone into a floor, potentially paving the way for a run toward the 78.6% retracement of the 2024–2025 pullback near $760.

Palantir (PLTR): Approaching Trendline Resistance

Palantir’s chart shows a parallel trendline from the August 2024 low through April 7th, projected up to the February all-time high. Price is now hugging that line—“These parallels are powerful,” Gareth reminded us.

In past cycles, PLTR has reversed sharply each time it touched that trend channel. A fresh leg down from here could target the 50% median of the channel, near $145. While retail enthusiasm could fuel another breakout attempt, history suggests odds favor at least a short-term setback.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD): Potential Bear Flag

Robinhood’s chart connects the 2023 bull-market high to the February 2025 peak, and a consolidation pattern is emerging that resembles a bear flag. As Gareth noted, “If we close above this high, then it’s back in bull mode. But we have to get through this upsloping trend line.”

Bear flags often resolve with sharp follow-through in the flagpole’s direction. A close below the flag’s lower boundary could signal a 20–25% retracement back toward major support.

Intermarket Analysis: Crypto, Metals, and Energy

Bitcoin: Wedge Dynamics

Bitcoin is oscillating within a multi-month wedge, recently retesting its pressure-line resistance. Gareth emphasized, “If we break here…we should go straight down to about $95–$93k.” A decisive break lower from this pressure cooker pattern tends to unleash strong moves—reminiscent of the 2021–2022 crypto collapse that retraced 70% after a wedge breakdown.

Gold and Silver: On Hold Ahead of Fed

Gold traded flat today, stuck above its long-term upsloping trendline. “As long as we hold this level, the bias remains bullish,” Gareth said. Silver has broken out of its own wedge and is pausing ahead of the Fed. Both metals could see sharp moves on dovish or hawkish Fed commentary, as they act as a barometer for rate-cut expectations and safe-haven bids amid geopolitical tensions.

Oil: Short Bias Intact

Oil rallied on Trump’s comments about Iran but remains capped by a down-sloping channel from last Thursday’s high. Gareth maintains a short bias under $77, citing OPEC production increases and a slowing U.S. economy. Echoing the 2015–2016 oil cycle, supply cues and demand headwinds have repeatedly undercut rallies, making lower highs and lower lows the prevailing pattern.

Natural Gas: Next Resistance at $4.13

Natural gas extended its bounce yesterday and today, breaking above a short-term parallel. The next battleground is $4.13—“That might be a shortable level,” Gareth noted. Traders can watch for volume confirmation and quick rejections there as a potential fade opportunity.

The Discipline of Trading: Levels Over Emotions

Throughout today’s show, Gareth emphasized the importance of mapping levels rather than succumbing to doomsday narratives or euphoria. “People compromise their technical brains for their emotional brains,” he warned. From Meta breakouts to Iran shock headlines, maintaining objective process—defining zones, sizing positions, and sticking to stops—is what separates long-term winners from those who chase every headline.

Conclusion: Preparing for a Pivotal Session

With the Fed’s policy decision, Powell’s press conference, and potential Iran updates all due today, markets are set up for a high-volatility session. Whether equities grind sideways or break toward key support levels at 5,960 and 5,800, traders have clearly defined pivots to guide entries, exits, and risk controls.

By combining multi-timeframe technical analysis with discipline and humility, investors can navigate today’s uncertain environment—capitalizing on levels rather than narratives and staying prepared for swift moves in stocks, bonds, crypto, and commodities.