GAME PLAN REVEALED: 06/23/2025

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, unpacked the market’s surprisingly resilient reaction to the U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and outlined key technical levels across stocks, indices, commodities, and crypto. Today’s article expands on his analysis by providing historical context on geopolitical sell-offs, deeper technical insights into wedge breaks and megaphone patterns, and actionable strategies for trading Tesla, HIMS, Palantir, Bitcoin, and more. Whether you missed the show or want to dive deeper, you’ll find trade setups, intermarket dynamics, and the psychological framework you need to navigate volatile conditions.

1. Geopolitical Shock and the V-Shaped Recovery

Over the weekend, the U.S. conducted three precision strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Despite threats of retaliation, markets shrugged off the risk after an initial futures sell-off. Gareth noted that “the markets initially opened lower... but very quickly overnight they recovered, with basically minimal losses.”

Historical Precedent
• 1991 Gulf War: An overnight drop of 5% in the S&P 500 reversed within two days once conflict timelines clarified.
• 2019 Saudi facility attacks: Oil spiked 20% intraday but ended the week down 2% after quick repairs and supply assurances.

Today’s bounce reflects market recognition of a “one-and-done” strike. However, should tensions escalate, the path of least resistance could shift lower—highlighting the importance of predefining risk parameters.

2. Major Indices: Wedge Breaks and Cycle Turns

S&P 500 Technical Setup

Overnight futures gapped down at 6 p.m. but found support at the prior pivot-low zone. A swift bull-flag breakout carried the index back above its pre-strike levels. Yet the bigger picture still favors caution. Gareth reminded viewers that “we broke that wedge pattern right at a cycle date I mentioned a month ago, showing a likely change from a grind up to sideways and eventual turn down.”

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 6,080–6,100 (wedge apex & double top)
• Support: Pivot-low at this morning’s 7:40 a.m. low

Since the wedge broke in May, the S&P has traded choppily, and the cycle turn suggests further sideways to downward work before the next sustained rally.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)

The QQQ also snapped its ascending wedge and is set to open flat. Like the S&P, it must contend with resistance at gap-fills and trend-line barriers that cap upside until bullish conviction returns.

3. Intermarket Dynamics: Dollar, Yields & Commodities

U.S. Dollar Megaphone Pattern

The dollar index is trapped in a megaphone—defined by diverging support and resistance lines. Price oscillates until a decisive break. Gareth favors a breakdown because:

• A weakening U.S. economy boosts Fed rate-cut odds
• Global de-dollarization sees central banks diversifying into gold

10-Year Treasury Yield

Short-term support sits at 4.34% (pivot-low cluster). A break below could test 4.13%. Even if the Fed cuts rates, long yields remain market-driven and are unlikely to revisit the 1–2% range seen during the COVID era.

Gold & Silver

Gold trades sideways along its long-term uptrend. As Gareth said, “as long as it holds its longer-term uptrend line, the bias remains bullish.” Silver, after a failed wedge break, is approaching a lower buy zone—presenting a potential value entry if prices revisit that level.

Oil’s Persistent Downtrend

Oil has respected a down-sloping parallel channel since March. Gareth’s dollar-cost-averaged short around $66–67, now averaging $70–74. As long as oil stays below its trend-line resistance, targets down to $64 and eventually the $50s remain on the table.

4. Stock Spotlights: Tesla, HIMS & Palantir

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla’s launch of Austin RoboTaxis sparked a pre-market pop. Its chart formed a textbook bull flag: a sharp rise followed by tight consolidation. A confirmed break above $332 opens a retest of $367. Bull flags work more often than they fail.

HIMS (HIMS)

After Novo Nordisk ended its partnership, HIMS plunged from $64.25 to about $48.60. Gareth focuses on pure technicals:

• Day-trade support: $45–44.50, targeting a $0.50–$1 bounce
• Swing-trade pivot: ~$38, where prior lows clustered

Palantir (PLTR)

As geopolitical concerns boost security plays, Palantir trades inside a parallel channel. Every touch of the upper trend-line near $147–150 has triggered a pullback. Watch for a double-tap reversal to key off fresh shorts or hedges.

5. Crypto Market Update

Crypto continued its weekend flush. Gareth covered half his Bitcoin short, leaving the remainder to ride toward profit zones. Key levels:

• Support: $100,000
• Resistance: $105,500
  Breaks below $100K could accelerate declines toward $95,000–93,000.

Ethereum failed its up-sloping parallel (bearish ~70% historically), broke down, then “kissed” support for a textbook bounce. Sunday’s Aave long in Smart Money Crypto delivered a 20% gain—proof that major flushes reward disciplined, technical entries.

6. Trading Psychology & Key Techniques

Volume as a Filter

“When you look at overnight action... If there’s a lot of volume traded—millions of shares in the pre-market—those pivots become tradable and important during the day.” Low-print levels (100-share ticks) lack significance.

Cycle Analysis

Cycles reflect collective psychology—shifts from euphoria to caution. Gareth quipped, “If I had to pick someone with no market knowledge to be a trader, I’d pick a psychologist.”

Patience and Position Sizing

Oil’s volatility underscores the value of starting small and scaling in. This disciplined approach, combined with courses like VWAP, Sleeper Hold Play, and the One-Minute Scalpel—all 50% off—forms the foundation of Investor Empowerment Day.

Conclusion

Today’s mixed landscape—geopolitical shocks, wedge-breaks, megaphone patterns, and crypto swings—demands a probability-based framework and unwavering discipline. By respecting key technical levels, managing position sizes, and filtering noise through volume and cycle analysis, traders can navigate both opportunities and risks. As Gareth emphasized, understanding human emotion and market psychology remains as crucial as chart patterns. Stay patient, stay humble, and let the charts guide your edge.