GAME PLAN REVEALED: Geopolitics, Rate Cuts & Technical Battle Zones

The markets opened this morning with a bullish gap following renewed hopes for a Middle East ceasefire and dovish commentary from Federal Reserve officials. In today’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, unpacked how geopolitical developments, Fed rate-cut probabilities, and key technical levels on major indices and assets are setting the stage for the next market battle. Below, we dive deeper into each theme, offering historical context, technical insights, and the trading psychology that underpins Gareth’s approach.

1. Geopolitical De-Escalation Spurs a Rally

Yesterday’s wild intraday swings illustrated the market’s sensitivity to Middle East tensions. After Iran launched missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar, oil initially spiked. But once the market learned that Iran had alerted U.S. officials—allowing the missiles to be intercepted—the situation was recast as a face-saving de-escalation rather than an open attack.

“This was a way for Iran to save face—they could say, ‘OK, we did retaliate,’ but they did it in a way that didn’t escalate the situation. That’s what the market recognized and rallied on.”

Oil plunged, and equities surged, with the S&P futures opening higher this morning. The renewed ceasefire announcement further underpinned risk assets, though Gareth cautioned that the ceasefire’s durability remains uncertain. Historically, markets have rewarded de-escalation in geopolitical flashpoints, but they often retrace once tensions reignite—making vigilance essential.

2. Oil Short: Charts Over Emotion

Gareth’s recent short on crude oil exemplifies his rule of “charts over emotion.” Despite the geopolitical flare-up, technical analysis signaled resistance at $77 a barrel:

A parallel resistance trend line was tested three times and held.
A rapid spike above the trend line failed to sustain, creating a classic bearish retracement setup.

“If you look historically at the data points and ignore emotion, guess what happens? Oil pops and then it generally fades.”

He began with a 1% position, scaled to 2%, and exited near $64, locking in substantial gains. With OPEC+ ramping production and U.S. economic growth slowing, the supply-demand picture remains tilted bearish. Gareth notes that a bounce to $68–$69 could materialize, but the primary trend favors lower prices unless geopolitical risk reignites.

3. Fed Rate Cut Probabilities: September in Focus

Fed officials have increasingly telegraphed rate cuts this year, yet markets remain skeptical on timing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool:

July 30 meeting: 83.5% chance of no cut
September 17 meeting: odds shift toward a 25-basis-point cut
Cuts priced for October, none for December 2025, another cut in January 2026
Fed funds futures stay at 3%–3.25% through December 2026

“Whether you like it or not, rate cuts aren’t scheduled for July… but for September we are on pace… to get a cut in rates—probably just a 25-basis-point one.”

Historically, equities have rallied in anticipation of Fed easing, but the lag between pricing and execution can create head fakes. Traders should monitor incoming data—particularly inflation and labor metrics—to gauge whether rate-cut odds continue to firm.

4. Key Resistance Zones on Major Indexes

S&P 500: 6,100–6,150 Battle Zone

The S&P 500 has broken a short-term wedge but now confronts a confluence zone where three trend lines intersect: the primary up-sloping trend, a steeper rally line, and the all-time high. This resistance between 6,100 and 6,150 represents a major decision point.

“Once we get back to the ‘scene of the crime’ zone here—three trend lines intersecting… that’s a major zone of resistance.”

A decisive weekly close above 6,150 would signal new highs and renewed bull conviction. Failure to clear could trigger a pullback toward prior support near 5,900.

Nasdaq-100: 22,200–22,500 Confluence

The Nasdaq-100 mirrors the S&P’s setup, with wedge resistance and three converging trend lines around 22,200–22,500. Given the tech sector’s sensitivity to yield moves and sector rotation, this zone will test the current risk appetite.

5. Dollar and Treasury Yields: Trend Lines to Watch

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is tracing a megaphone pattern, inching lower toward a pivot trend-line support at 97.70. A break below could accelerate dollar weakness, benefiting commodities and non-U.S. equities.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is oscillating around a key trend line drawn from recent lows. Yesterday’s intraday breach was quickly reversed, and yields remain perched near resistance. A failure to break higher could send yields toward the next support at 4.13%. Conversely, a breakout would pressure interest-rate-sensitive stocks and sectors.

6. Insider Selling and Earnings Calendar: Hidden Signals

Market insiders have been heavy sellers, dumping stock at a pace that vastly outstrips buying. While insider activity isn’t a stand-alone technical signal, it often precedes broader market tops when executives lose confidence in their own companies’ valuations.

As for earnings, today’s highlights include FedEx after the bell and Micron tomorrow. Micron’s report is the marquee tech event this week, with shares facing gap fill resistance near $127.70–$127.80. Nike reports Thursday, though its market impact may be more muted.

7. Asset Spotlights: From AMD to Natural Gas

AMD: Short Zone at $138.60

AMD opens higher into a zone defined by a gap fill at $138.60 and an up-sloping trend line. Gareth is eyeing short entries near this confluence.

Micron: Earnings Resistance

With earnings due tomorrow, Micron faces resistance at the post-earnings gap fill around $127.70–$127.80. This level aligns with both a pivot low and pivot high, creating a high-probability rejection zone.

Bitcoin: Respecting Resistance

Bitcoin rallied but slammed into technical resistance. Gareth covered half his short near $98,700, re-added at that level, and remains positioned for a pullback while leaving room to scale in further.

Gold & Silver: Cooling Risk-Off Trades

Gold is sliding as ceasefire hopes grow, testing its uptrend support near $3,075. If that breaks, we could see a drop toward $3,100, maybe even $2,900–$3,000. Silver is likewise trading lower, with Gareth standing aside for now, ready to buy only if clear support holds.

Natural Gas: Short-Term Bounce or Breakdown

Natural gas has technical support around $3.63–$3.65, where a one-day bounce is possible. Yet the longer-term pattern favors a breakdown toward $3.30–$3.31, offering only quick trading opportunities on the way down.

8. The Discipline of Trading Psychology

Throughout today’s analysis, Gareth emphasized patience and structured position sizing:

“I have no problem missing a trade—I’ve missed many in my career and I’ll miss many more.”

He urged traders to define levels in advance, avoid chasing, and prioritize probability-based decisions over emotional reactions. This disciplined mindset—studied over decades—allows smaller investors to compete with institutions by mastering technical analysis and risk management.

Conclusion: Navigating the Next Battle Zones

As markets digest geopolitics, Fed rate-cut odds, and corporate earnings, the path forward hinges on a handful of key levels:

S&P 500: 6,100–6,150
Nasdaq-100: 22,200–22,500
DXY support: 97.70
10-year yield support: 4.13%
Individual assets: AMD at $138.60, Micron at $127.70–$127.80, gold at $3,075, natural gas at $3.63–$3.65

By combining multi-factor technical analysis, awareness of insider behavior, and disciplined psychology, traders can navigate these inflection points with a probability-based edge. Keep these zones on your radar as we head into the end of the week, and remember that patience often yields the most consistent results.