GAME PLAN REVEALED: S&P & Nasdaq Resistance, SMH Gap Fill, and Macro Signals

This morning on GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, walked us through a slowly grinding market that’s edging back toward all-time highs. With the S&P 500 futures teasing a retrace of the wedge pattern’s “scene of the crime,” semiconductor stocks under focus, NVIDIA’s shareholder meeting at noon ET, after-hours Micron earnings, and Jerome Powell testifying again at 10:00 a.m., today promises plenty of technical inflection points. Below, we dive deeper into each setup, provide historical context, and outline the levels traders need to watch.

1. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Approaching Critical Barriers

"So markets are trading slightly higher today, coming off a big rally yesterday. We are creeping to the all-time highs, coming up underneath a retrace of the wedge pattern—the scene of the crime."

On the S&P 500 futures chart, yesterday’s action saw an initial pop, a pullback, then a late rally capped by light profit-taking. Overnight chop gave way to a gentle upside grind into this morning, and we’re now trading just above yesterday’s high. Technically, the key is the upper boundary of the wedge—a trend line that served as major support on multiple bounces before the breakdown. The retrace “scene of the crime” sits near 6,150, which also coincides with the all-time high on the cash index.

A rejection at 6,150 would validate the shape as resistance.
A clean break and hold above would rekindle momentum and target fresh highs.

Meanwhile, the QQQ (Nasdaq-100) chart shows a slightly steeper ascent, tagging its all-time high and pressing an “underbelly” trend line roughly $10 above yesterday’s close. This suggests the mega-caps could outpace the broader market, even if the S&P stalls at the wedge retrace.

2. Intermarket Indicators: U.S. Dollar and 10-Year Yield Dynamics

Many traders overlook these, but they’re vital for big-picture context.

On the U.S. dollar index, price continues to respect its up-sloping support line, bouncing yet again this morning. However, repeated tests gradually weaken any trend line, increasing the odds of a breakdown—a dynamic covered in detail in our Winning Trader Series.

On the 10-year Treasury yield:

"Yesterday, we finally broke down from this short-term trend line on the 10-year yield. You are getting a bounce, but now this becomes minor resistance."

That break was unconfirmed, making yesterday’s downtrend line “minor resistance” (~50–60% chance of holding) rather than “major resistance” (>80% chance). If yields rip back above it, expect a false breakdown. Confirm a second close below, and the level flips to major resistance, cementing the yield decline and influencing growth-stock pressure.

3. Earnings Catalysts: NVIDIA Shareholder Meeting, FedEx, and Micron

NVIDIA Shareholder Meeting at Noon ET

"I wouldn’t be shocked if nothing major is announced—if you see a sell-off in the afternoon."
NVIDIA’s meeting often sparks a “sell-the-news” effect, similar to Apple product debuts. Traders should be ready for volatility this afternoon in the SMH, NVDA, and related semiconductor names.

FedEx Earnings Reaction

FedEx reported after the bell yesterday; the stock is set to open down about 5%, trading sideways in its lower range. A prior “underbelly” trend line break led to a bearish gap and retrace to the scene of the crime—a classic River Theory move. The next day-trade target stems from the pivot low of 2022 to the recent pivot low, centering around $200. A further $15–$20 drop would bring FedEx into that zone.

"For today’s trade, I’m looking at a pivot low from back here in 2022 to the pivot low here, which gives us a general target of about $200 on FedEx."

Micron Earnings After the Bell

Micron has rallied over 100% off the April 7th low and, in pre-market, sits near $128. It has already filled the $127.50 gap and faces a resistance band up to roughly $130. Given the extended run into earnings and lofty expectations, the higher-probability outcome is a post-earnings pullback into that $127.50–$130 zone.

4. Big Tech and Fintech Showdowns: Robinhood vs. Coinbase

Robinhood (HOOD)

Robinhood has soared in recent days but is bumping into major resistance at $85, which served as its IPO high. A double top here often leads to an intraday pierce followed by a multi-day pullback.

"Robinhood continues to move higher, but interestingly, it is coming into resistance around $85."

Coinbase (COIN)

Following news of possible tokenized stock trading, Coinbase is up sharply in the pre-market. If it launches stock tokenization, it could encroach on Robinhood’s demographic. COIN faces pivot resistance near $368–$369, a level last significant in November 2021 when Bitcoin peaked.

"Coinbase is trading up in the pre-market—look at the run since that announcement."

Traders looking to fade the run can watch $368–$370 for a short entry.

5. Semiconductor Sector at a Crossroads: SMH Gap Fill Test

The SMH ETF is creeping back to fill its February–April gap at roughly $273.60. This level carries added weight today given NVIDIA’s shareholder meeting and Micron’s after-hours report.

"Take a look at the SMH this morning…we’re creeping up toward this trend line and, in fact, piercing it as we speak. That level is a major gap fill that hadn’t been filled until today’s open."

If SMH breaks above and holds, look for a double-top extension. If it rejects, expect profit-taking in semis and related tech names.

6. Commodities and Crypto: Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is up alongside equities but has been making lower highs. The next barrier sits at a down-sloping trend line near $109,500–$110,000. A decisive break could target the 2025 high near $113,000.

"The next level I’m watching is this downsloping line around $109,500–$110,000."

Maintain correlation: if stocks stall, Bitcoin often follows.

Gold ($XAU)

Gold is inching lower but above yesterday’s lows. A break below the trend line at $3,280 (and confirmation) exposes support at $3,125 and then $2,960. Even $2,960 is only a shallow pullback in the context of the bull market’s broader Fibonacci structure.

"The big level on gold is not too far away—$3,280. That’ll be a test of this trend line; if it breaks and confirms, you’ll have support around $3,125 and then $2,960."

Silver ($XAG)

Silver’s late-May breakout stalled. Gareth sold into strength and is waiting for a pullback to $34.50 before re-entering his long-term position.

"Maybe we’ll get that pullback. I still like silver long term, but I’m being a disciplined investor."

Oil (WTI)

After shorting oil into a resistance range, Gareth flipped to a long when price retraced to an inverse head-and-shoulders neckline—targeting a bounce to about $68 per barrel.

"Yesterday I exited all of my oil short … Then I flipped into a long—why? Because the chart told me to."

Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas has fallen four days in a row and sits between two trend lines that could offer a short-term bounce. However, the longer-term downtrend remains intact.

"We’re right between two trend lines; there should be some support here for a potential bounce. But again … likely heading lower long term."

Conclusion: Navigating Today’s Technical Minefield

Today’s market action hinges on multiple catalysts: Jerome Powell’s testimony and new-home sales data at 10:00 a.m., NVIDIA’s shareholder meeting at noon, and Micron’s earnings after the bell. Intermarket indicators—the U.S. dollar and 10-year yield—remain at crucial junctures, while semiconductors test a big gap fill at $273.60. Major averages stare at the wedge retrace near 6,150 (S&P 500) and an “underbelly” trend line in QQQ. In commodities and crypto, precise resistance and support levels frame high-probability trades. By focusing on these technical landmarks and practicing disciplined entry and exit strategies, traders can seize opportunities and manage risk through what could be a volatile session.