GAME PLAN REVEALED: 06/26/2025
In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, unpacked a deluge of data—from a weaker Q1 GDP reading to powerful durable-goods orders—and mapped out how these figures are shaping technical setups across equities, commodities, and currencies. Today’s article expands on Gareth’s insights by adding historical context, deeper technical analysis, and the psychological framework needed to navigate markets that seem increasingly driven by “animal spirits.”
Economic Data and Stagflation Risks
The U.S. economy delivered mixed signals at 8:30 a.m. ET, raising fresh stagflation concerns.
• Q1 GDP final reading: –0.5% versus –0.2% expected.
• GDP Price Index: 3.8% versus 3.7% expected.
• Weekly jobless claims: 236,000 versus 244,000 forecast.
• Durable goods orders: +16.4% versus +8.6% expected; core (ex-aircraft) +0.5% versus +0.1%.
“A weaker economy with slightly higher inflation raises the worry again of stagflation,” Gareth warned. Historically, stagflation—simultaneous stagnation and inflation—crippled markets in the 1970s. Jerome Powell has downplayed transitory inflation surges, but with the GDP Price Index hotter than anticipated and growth contracting, traders must watch April and May PCE data (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) for confirmation.
The volatile durable-goods headline reflects a one-month surge in Chinese aircraft orders after earlier trade-tariff suspensions. Removing aircraft, orders still beat expectations, signaling underlying business investment strength. Yet that strength may not offset the gravity of contracting GDP, making central-bank policy decisions and market positioning more complex.
S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Wedge Patterns in Focus
S&P 500 futures are up roughly 20 points from yesterday’s close, but the pre-market spike faded on the GDP print. On the 10-minute chart, the futures high coincided with the data release, followed by a pullback—a classic risk-off reaction to stagflation fears.
On the daily S&P 500 chart, two wedge trend lines demand attention:
- Upper wedge line (~6,100): Price has tagged this line from successive highs.
- Lower wedge line (~6,180 and rising): This “scene of the crime” retrace zone offered support before the breakdown.
“The upper part of the wedge pattern… price is still acknowledging it,” Gareth noted. Wedge patterns often herald continuation or reversal, depending on breakout direction. A break above 6,100 could signal bullish resolve, while a drop below the lower line might trigger a sharper correction. Historically, markets that trace converge before major Fed decisions (like tomorrow’s PCE report) tend to test both wedge boundaries before picking a direction. Traders should watch where the S&P closes today relative to these lines—6,100 on the upper trend and ~6,180 on the lower trend—to gauge next moves.
QQQ and Divergence Dynamics
While the S&P hovers near wedge resistance, the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) notched a new all-time high yet remains below its critical wedge boundaries:
• Upper wedge line: Touched at yesterday’s high.
• Scene-of-the-crime retrace: Defined by the pivot highs and lows that preceded the breakdown.
“Probabilities dictate you go back to that line, then get a bigger move to the downside,” Gareth quipped, likening the pattern to a college student’s holiday homecoming before heading back out. Divergences between the S&P and QQQ often foreshadow sector rotation: tech may stall at resistance while broader markets find fresh buyers in cyclicals or value names. In past cycles, when growth stocks top out before the index, capital frequently rotates into lagging sectors, setting up profitable pairs trades. Monitor whether QQQ fails to reclaim its wedge lines even as the S&P presses higher—this could signal impending profit-taking in tech.
Dollar and 10-Year Yield Breakdown
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is breaking down from a megaphone pattern, defined by diverging ascending and descending trend lines. After respecting the lower megaphone boundary, DXY slipped below recent pivots, eyeing support at 94.00–94.50.
“At some point you look for which way it breaks, then you usually get a bigger move in that direction,” Gareth explained. A confirmed downside break could relieve upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields, which are also sliding toward a downside target of 4.13%. Historically, a weakening dollar and falling yields boost equities and commodities, but stagflation fears can muddy this relationship. Traders should watch for yield confirmation: if yields breach 4.13%, expect further equity strength; if yields rebound, risk assets could face headwinds.
Sector Highlights: Semiconductors and Commodities
Semiconductors: Micron, AMD, NVIDIA
Micron (MU) earnings initially sparked a rally from ~$60 to nearly $130, fully factoring in stellar results. In the pre-market, MU popped through its gap-fill zone and pivot lows but faded back—validating that resistance.
“It’s very unlikely Micron will push above this level—gap fill, pivot low… huge resistance,” Gareth said. For MU, the next actionable zone sits at these levels; only a sustained close above them would imply fresh accumulation.
AMD continues to show strength alongside chips peers. NVIDIA (NVDA) flashed a new all-time high and now eyes its secondary resistance at $162–163. This zone aligns with multiple high-pivot points from past rallies. A rally into $162–163 could trigger a meaningful rejection, offering a tactical short opportunity. Semis have driven broader market returns, but with valuations stretched, every earnings beat may already be priced in.
Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas
Gold trades near its descending trend line in a large wedge spanning from 2022 lows. Swing traders await a decisive break either below the up-sloping or above the down-sloping line. Key levels:
- Silver: Downside stop: $31.25–31.30 (pivot low/high).
- Silver: Upside buy trigger: just below $29.70.
- Gold: Long-term targets: $4,000 then $5,000.
Since 2022, gold has rallied from $1,600 to over $3,200—rare for a three-year span. Extended moves often require multi-month digestion, making a retest of $3,000 healthy before the next leg higher.
Silver’s breakout remains intact, but Gareth has yet to re-enter due to sub-optimal entry points. He emphasizes scaling into positions rather than full allocations:
- Initial $250,000.
- Add $250,000 at the next support.
- Final $500,000 if price hits a third major support.
With a ~70% success rate per level, one bounce typically materializes—a probabilistic edge that protects capital.
Oil is staging a short-term bounce from lower levels toward $68. Natural gas, by contrast, continues to slide, teasing a buy at deeper pivots. Both markets underscore Gareth’s mantra: “Charts are what matter. When you pay attention to the news, you talk yourself out of trades.”
Bitcoin: Euphoria and Key Levels
Bitcoin briefly reclaimed its up-sloping trend line before pulling back. Critical levels:
- Minor resistance: just below $110,000.
- Major resistance: ~$113,000.
- Support: $100,000, then $95,000–93,000.
“Euphoria is at hand,” Gareth observed. When Bitcoin and stocks ignore geopolitical headlines, it signals peak risk appetite. Traders should watch whether BTC holds $100,000 or breaks lower—either outcome will foreshadow directional conviction across risk assets.
Market Psychology: Embracing Discipline and Patience
This morning’s commentary punctuated the psychological landscape: markets have grown immune to political tweets, trade disputes, and geopolitical shocks, fueling “animal spirits.” Yet Euphoria often precedes corrections. Gareth’s approach centers on disciplined probability trading:
“I have no problem missing trades… There’s always another trade.”
“Even when I get my price, it’s not always the right price. But how do I mitigate that risk? I don’t start with a full position.”
By pre-defining entry, scaling rules, and stop levels, traders maintain control when markets leap or crash. Over 26 years, Gareth has learned that missing trades hurt less than overstaying in doomed positions.
Conclusion: Navigating a Euphoria-Charged Market
Today’s data dump delivered conflicting messages: contracting GDP but hotter inflation, while jobless claims and durable goods underpin a still-resilient economy. Equities grind higher into key wedge boundaries, semis test resistance after blowout earnings, and commodities balance between breakout and consolidation. Meanwhile, the dollar and yields hint at further declines, and Bitcoin flirts with euphoric highs.
The charts offer an objective lens: monitor S&P 500’s 6,100/6,180 wedge lines, QQQ’s scene-of-the-crime retrace, DXY’s 94.00–94.50 pivot, and NVDA’s $162–163 barrier. Above all, trade probability, preserve capital, and respect the market’s lessons in humility. Tomorrow’s PCE report looms as the next catalyst—tune in to the morning’s GAME PLAN for real-time analysis and strategic adjustments.
