GAME PLAN REVEALED: Market Feud, Insider Selling & Key Setups

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, dissected the re-ignited feud between Trump and Elon Musk, warned about unprecedented insider selling, and highlighted key technical setups across equities, currencies, bonds, commodities, and crypto. Below, we expand on these themes—providing historical context, deeper analysis, and actionable insights—so even readers who didn’t catch the show can navigate today’s markets with confidence.

1. Trump vs. Musk: Market Sentiment on the Line

Yesterday, Elon Musk publicly denounced the new mega spending-tax bill for its colossal debt impact—"horrendous in terms of adding debt to the U.S."—prompting a social-media counterattack from former President Trump. Independent sources say the bill will add about $3.5 trillion to the deficit. The result? U.S. futures dipped as traders braced for renewed volatility.

This spat arrives after the Nasdaq’s six-day win streak—a lengthy time count in technical analysis that often precedes a reversal. Time counts mark potential pivot points; six consecutive up days can create exhaustion. The feud drove Tesla (TSLA) down nearly 6% to around $300, a level coinciding with the lower trendline of a wedge pattern. If Tesla breaks below this wedge—and closes under $300—it could plummet toward $271–$272 or even retest the $220–$215 lows. Conversely, a bounce above the wedge’s upper trendline could ignite a sharp rally. Traders should watch for that decisive break to define the next major move.

2. Insider Selling & FedWatch: A Cautionary Backdrop

One of Gareth’s key takeaways was the unprecedented wave of insider selling over the past 60 days—chief executives and CFOs offloading stock at all-time highs. Insiders possess intimate knowledge of their firms’ health; massive selling raises a red flag for market complacency.

On the monetary policy front, the CME FedWatch Tool predicts three rate cuts this year: September, October, and December. No cut is priced in for July, marking today as the first day of Q3. While lower rates typically buoy equities, the looming cuts underscore the Fed’s concern about economic slowdown. Combined with insider dumping, this backdrop calls for measured positioning even as major indices hover near record levels.

3. Major Indices: Technical Crossroads

S&P 500

S&P futures opened slightly lower amid Trump-Musk jitters. On the daily chart, the index recently kissed the underside of its former up-sloping trendline—support seen at multiple pivot points—only to break at a cycle-turn date. It then retraced to the “scene of the crime,” a classic setup where prices often face rejection. Recall that from April lows, the S&P rallied 28% in one quarter—the best quarter since post-COVID. That steep V-bottom has taught investors to buy sharp pullbacks, yet the current retracement into former support merits caution. A rejection here could trigger a meaningful pullback.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 still has room to retrace into its own scene of the crime. With 50% of the index weighted to mega-caps, the ongoing Tesla wedge and other large-cap patterns will heavily influence its trajectory. A deeper pullback could offer a more favorable entry for long-term bulls.

4. Currencies & Yields: The Broader Macro Picture

The U.S. dollar endured its worst quarter since the 1970s—a period synonymous with stagflation and runaway inflation. The dollar has fallen seven straight days, prompting oversold conditions yet signaling potential for a significant bounce soon. Technical patterns on EUR/USD and USD/JPY charts point to further dollar weakness: the dollar/yen bears a head-and-shoulders topping formation, suggesting a break and drop.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield, after falling, has rebounded to about 4.23%. Although Gareth expects yields to ultimately trend lower, short-term bounces highlight the tug-of-war between growth and inflation expectations. With Fed cuts on the horizon, yields and bond-equity interactions will remain a crucial dynamic to monitor.

5. Stock Setups: From Tesla to Royal Caribbean

Tesla (TSLA): Trading near $300 inside a wedge. A decisive close below $300 targets $271–$272 or even $220–$215. A breakout higher could spark a swift rally.

Robinhood (HOOD): Shares surged 200–215% on news of tokenized trading in the EU. Weekly and monthly RSI show negative divergence. The gap to fill sits at $68, with support around $65—a potential retracement zone for those seeking a lower-risk entry.

Coinbase (COIN): After breaking down from support and retracing to the “scene of the crime,” COIN fell from $350 to $145. Traders watching the lower trendline test should prepare for another directionally decisive move.

Royal Caribbean (RCL): Bear-flag pullback into prior support offers a high-probability rejection zone. A failure here could signal another leg lower.

Gareth’s overarching message: detach from fundamentals and emotions—"As traders, we don’t care what we’re trading… it’s all about the chart." High-probability, rule-based setups across any asset class deliver consistent results.

6. Commodities & Crypto: Bounces and Breakdowns

Oil (WTI): After collapsing from the down-sloping trendline around $66.40, oil bounced from a lower pivot. A break above $66.40 ahead of the time count may drive prices to $67–$68 in a quick swing.

Bitcoin (BTC): Forming a wedge with three touches on the lower trendline. A fourth test yields a 50/50 chance of breakout vs. breakdown. Upside targets $113,000; a failure points to $95,000–$93,000.

Gold (GC): Rejected a breakdown below the wedge, recaptured the lower trendline, and rallied. A confirmed break below that line would be required to signal real weakness.

Silver (SI): In a bull-flag consolidation, silver pulled back to the down-sloping flag pole and looks poised for another leg higher. A bounce in the current zone could present a buying opportunity.

Natural Gas (NG): Continued sell-off isolated a long setup zone. A bounce back to prior low pivots is probable within two to three days.

Conclusion: Position for Volatility

Today’s key events include Fed Governor Powell’s remarks at 9:30 a.m. ET and the June ISM and JOLTS data at 10:00 a.m. The Musk-Trump feud may fuel intraday swings—an ideal environment for nimble traders. Remember Gareth’s closing reminder: embrace volatility, adhere to your levels, and trade probability over certainty. With VerifiedInvesting’s summer sale—courses 50% off through July 4th—now is the time to sharpen your edge.