In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, dissected the latest ADP private‐sector surprise, the classic quarter‐end rotation out of mega-caps, and critical technical levels across equities, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies. As we head into the Independence Day holiday, volume will be light—but the market has already begun to tell its story. Below, we expand on Gareth’s key takeaways, including historical context on institutional window dressing, the mechanics of failed breakouts, and how rising U.S. debt issuance may be reshaping bond yields and the dollar.

1. ADP Shock vs. Nonfarm Payrolls Reality

This morning’s ADP report stunned markets with a negative 33,000 private‐sector jobs print versus a consensus expectation of +99,000. It marked the first negative ADP reading in years and deepened concerns over a cooling labor market heading into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release.
“Normally it’s the first Friday… but a negative ADP versus a plus 99,000 expectation is a massive miss, and we are seeing the stock market react,” Gareth noted.
Historical Perspective on ADP vs. NFP

• The ADP survey often diverges from the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls.
• Last month’s weak ADP (+37,000) preceded a still‐solid headline jobs print.
• Traders treat ADP as a “first look” but lean more heavily on Friday’s headline payrolls and the unemployment rate for Fed‐watching clues.
• With tomorrow a half‐day of trading and July 4 volume ultra‐light, volatility is likely muted—unless the NFP print also disappoints significantly.
  Trading Takeaway
• A light pullback today—roughly a 10-point drop in S&P 500 futures (≈$1 on SPY)—sets up a classic low-volume holiday range.
• Watch yield‐sensitive sectors (utilities, REITs) for extra volatility if the NFP misses or beats by a large margin.

2. Quarter Turnover: The Mega‐Cap Rotation

June’s end-of-quarter window dressing saw institutions burdened with gains in Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and other tech leaders. Hedge funds held these winners on June 30 to inflate quarterly statements, then began lightening those same positions July 1.
“If an institutional hedge fund thought NVIDIA was overbought, they wouldn’t sell into quarter end… Now, with the new quarter starting, they all sell at once,” Gareth explained.
How Window Dressing Works

• Fund managers push winners into the final days to improve quarterly performance appearance.
• On Day 1 of the new quarter, they unwind those positions, triggering a sell‐the-leaders, buy-the-laggards theme.
  Evidence in the Tape
• Meta gapped up, trapped weak‐hand shorts, then collapsed below its opening level and continued to sell off.
• NASDAQ 100 fell ~0.7% while the Russell 2000 rallied over +1%, reflecting a flip from large‐cap tech into small‐cap and cyclicals.
• The Russell still trades ~12.5% below its all‐time high, offering room to catch up should rotation persist.
  Strategic Insight
• In prior quarters, this rotation often extends 3–5 trading days as institutions rebalance.
• A simple play: look for pullbacks in mega-caps into May–June highs and watch small caps for relief rallies.

3. Key Technical Levels to Watch: S&P 500

After its June breakout, the S&P 500 retraced to retest the old 6,145 all-time high. That level is now the focal pivot for today’s session.
“Once you confirm one way, if it fails, that’s usually a big move in the opposite way. Always remember, guys, the biggest moves come from failed moves,” Gareth reminded viewers.
Technical Anatomy

• The prior high at 6,145 now serves as critical support. A hold and bounce would preserve a neutral-to-bullish bias.
• A confirmed daily close below 6,145 would constitute a failed breakout and could trigger a swift leg down, as trapped bulls unwind.
• Failure‐driven moves historically produce larger, faster trends than initial breakouts—an important edge for nimble traders.
  Monitoring the Roll
• Intraday buyers should step in near 6,145 on any test, with stops just below for tight risk management.
• If the level breaks, the next targets lie near the April gap at 6,050 and the March breakout area around 5,900.

4. Bond Yields and U.S. Dollar: Debt Concerns Emerge

Paradoxically, today’s weak ADP print did not dampen the U.S. dollar or 10-year Treasury yields, both of which are catching bids.
“Usually weak data equals Fed cuts, a weaker dollar and lower yields… But the Senate passed a tax and spending bill adding $3–4 trillion of debt, and that may force foreign lenders to demand higher rates,” Gareth suggested.
Debt Supply and Yield Dynamics

• Massive new issuance can flood the Treasury market, pushing prices down (yields up) if demand falters.
• In the early 1980s, U.S. yields soared into the teens under similar debt overhangs—though inflation, not just debt, was the culprit then.
• Today, global investors may balk at funding ever‐growing deficits without extra yield compensation.
  Dollar Strength Drivers
• Higher bond yields attract foreign capital seeking carry, boosting the dollar index.
• If fiscal credibility concerns intensify, non-U.S. investors could demand a premium to hold Treasuries, prolonging dollar strength.
  Trading Implications
• Watch the 10-year note yield—rising yields could spook rate-sensitive equities and real‐rate-edged assets like gold.
• Monitor the U.S. dollar index for further upside—strength can pressure commodities and more cyclical sectors.

5. High-Probability Trade Setups: Charts at a Glance

Gareth reviewed a basket of individual names and commodities, applying multi-factor technical analysis and probability‐based triggers.

Centene (CNC): Pivot Support at $36.75

After issuing an earnings warning, CNC plunged to $38.45. Technical support clusters at $36.75, marked by a prior pivot high and subsequent breakout‐retest sequence.
“High probability doesn’t guarantee a win… but if you can focus on trades you win 80% of the time, you improve your edge,” Gareth said.

• Entry zone: $37.00–$37.50
• Stop: below $36.50
• Upside target: prior congestion near $40.50

Tesla (TSLA): Wedge Support Holds

TSLA respected its rising wedge line on yesterday’s close and bounced higher today—exactly the high‐probability outcome when support holds.

• Bullish pivot: daily close above wedge trendline
• Near‐term target: $255–$260 area (previous swing high)
• A close below the wedge demands fresh analysis to invalidate support.

Bitcoin (BTC): Risk vs. Safe-Haven Dialectic

BTC is flirting with resistance at $109,000—the junction of a multi-year trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 2021 high. Support sits at $100,000, with further downside to $95,000–$93,000 if that breaks.
“I’m always watching: is Bitcoin trading like a risk asset or a safe haven? Today it’s up with yields,” Gareth observed.

Gold & Silver: Confirmation Is Key

Gold saw a fleeting break of its trendline but recaptured it—leaving a potential bear flag in play. A daily close back below that line favors a drop toward $3,265, with resistance at $3,440 and eventual upside of $3,500 if overcome. Silver’s bullish consolidation remains intact; a breakout above recent highs would confirm further gains.

Oil & Natural Gas: Watching Break Points

Crude oil continues a measured bounce. A daily close above $66.40 should ignite follow-through to $67–$68 (possibly $69) amid Middle East supply tensions. Natural gas is hovering at key pivot lows—either setting up a bear flag breakdown to lower targets around $2.90 or a bounce into $3.20 if support holds.

6. Holiday Trading and Macro Catalysts

With July 4 just days away, traders face thinner liquidity and wider bid-ask spreads. Historical holiday behavior shows:

• Lower volume amplifies intraday whipsaws.
• Retail “animal spirits” often buy dips into holidays, providing a gentle bid.
• Catalysts—like tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls and the July 9 trade-deal deadline—can override seasonal calm.

“If tomorrow’s jobs number isn’t horrendously horrible, I’d be surprised to see a major negative day,” Gareth concluded, urging viewers to stay alert to volume, confirmation signals, and upcoming political timelines.

Conclusion

Today’s session encapsulates the interplay of data surprises, institutional behavior and technical rigor. The negative 33,000 ADP miss sets the stage for a pivotal NFP print, while quarter‐end rotation out of mega-caps has already sparked a small-cap revival in the Russell 2000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s fate hinges on 6,145, Treasury yields and the dollar grapple with U.S. debt issuance concerns, and selected stocks and commodities offer high-probability setups when multiple factors align. As holiday volume wanes, discipline—and an eye on confirmation—remains paramount. Whether you’re trading a bounce in TSLA, a breakout in oil, or a breakdown in gold, stick to probability‐based levels and proper risk management for the edge.