GAME PLAN REVEALED: Jobs Timing, Yield Breakdown & Trendline Confluence

The U.S. markets face a shortened trading day ahead of July 4th—the market closes early at 1 p.m. ET today and will be closed tomorrow, reconvening Monday—and this morning’s GAME PLAN show with Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, unpacked pivotal themes: the early release of nonfarm payrolls, the ensuing bond market breakdown, converging S&P 500 trendlines, a Russell 2000 “catch-up” rotation, and high-probability setups across stocks, crypto, metals, and energy. Below, we add historical context, technical depth, and actionable clarity.

1. Holiday Timing and Nonfarm Payroll Signals

July 4th week is notorious for data timing games. This morning’s nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside with 147,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 4.1% from 4.3% (last month was revised up slightly).
“If they release it early, it’s good; if they release it late, it’s probably bad.”
Historically, early releases before holidays signal strong prints meant to boost consumer confidence and spending. By contrast, delayed releases often hide weakness. Remember this pattern for future holiday-week jobs reports.

2. Fed Expectations and the 10-Year Yield Breakdown

Strong jobs data crushed hopes for a July rate cut. As Gareth noted, “there is now no chance the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates at the end of July.” The market shifted from pricing three cuts by year-end to only two. The 10-year Treasury yield staged a textbook breakdown, retracing to its “scene-of-the-crime” trendline before confirming the breakdown. Today it trades back near 4.336%, reinforcing higher-for-longer rate expectations.

3. S&P 500 Trendline Confluence

On the S&P chart, three key trendlines converge: the primary “scene-of-the-crime,” a secondary resistance above, and the long-term logarithmic line from pre-Great Depression to dot-com highs. “Once you get three trend lines merging like that, it’s significant.” This confluence often precedes decisive turns. A clean break and retest here will set the next direction for equities.

4. Sector Rotation: Russell 2000 vs. Meta Window Dressing

Quarter-end window dressing left tech names like Meta forming a double top and stalling, while the Russell outperformed with another 1% gain yesterday and over 1% this morning. Money is rotating from large-cap, heavily owned names into small-caps. With the broader market at all-time highs, the Russell still has room to run and could test its own records if this rotation persists.

5. Stock Spotlights: Datadog and Robinhood

Datadog (around $149) enters the S&P 500, with its gap fill at $148 already cleared. High-risk resistance sits at $152–153, then $158. Robinhood, down sharply after missing the S&P addition, respects a parallel support line drawn from March/April lows, currently near the round-number $100 level—an area that has historically marked key inflection points.

6. Crypto and Metals: Bitcoin, Gold & Silver

Bitcoin reclaimed a key trendline after closing on it yesterday, but needs a confirmed close above to validate an 80%-probability breakout. Gareth cautions that without confirmation, it’s a 50/50 proposition at best.
Gold pulled back after three up days, pressured by a stronger dollar and risk-on rotation; resistance holds near $3,440. Silver attempts a breakout above consolidation, currently near $36.50, targeting the major uptrend around $39 if confirmed.

7. Energy Markets: Oil and Natural Gas

Oil hit Gareth’s $67–68 target on a snapback trade, climbing to around $67.50, then he took profits and sits neutral awaiting the next formation. “Emotion is the worst thing in this game. Ground yourself with the charts.” Natural gas bounces from support, with the first tradable zone down at $3.08–3.09.

Conclusion: Probability, Patience, and Half-Day Dynamics

A half-day on strong jobs data usually favors gains, but markets remain torn between wanting low rates and a robust economy—a conflict driven by inflation concerns. As Gareth summarized, “You can’t have your cake and eat it too.” By combining holiday-week data patterns, bond/equity interplays, multi-trendline setups, and probability-based confirmations, traders can navigate this abbreviated session and beyond with discipline and clarity.