GAME PLAN REVEALED: Key Levels, Earnings Preview & Intermarket Themes

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, broke down how markets digested fresh tariff headlines, highlighted key technical inflection points across equities, bonds, commodities, and crypto, and set the stage for a pivotal earnings season kick-off.

While futures on the S&P 500 initially swooned on Friday’s trade-war noise, the pullback was cut in half by Sunday’s open, underscoring the market’s resilience. Below, we expand on Gareth’s levels, patterns, and intermarket dynamics, add historical context, and outline the setups that traders need on their radar as we head into Q3 earnings and key macro releases.

1. Tariff Drama Meets Market Resilience

Last Thursday night, reports surfaced about new letters outlining tariff rate adjustments. With the U.S. equity market closed for a half-day Friday, investors had ample time to fret—or, as it turned out, to shrug.

On Friday, S&P 500 futures plunged roughly 40–45 points, only to reopen Sunday night down about 20 points. As Gareth noted,

“Futures on Sunday night opened lower, but only down about 20 points, cutting the loss from Thursday and Friday in half.”

This “two-step” reaction illustrates a growing phenomenon: headlines spark knee-jerk moves that fade once algorithmic and discretionary buyers step back in. It echoes past episodes—like 2018’s tariff tantrums—when markets initially cracked on trade threats, only to resume higher after digesting the details. Traders should remember that headline risk can create short-term volatility without derailing longer-term trends.

2. S&P 500: Testing the “Scene of the Crime”

After an 0.8% gain on Thursday, the S&P 500 ran into its upsloping trend line—the very “scene of the crime” where several previous rebounds stalled. On Friday and into today’s open, prices rejected this line, which aligns with both a low pivot and retracement level:

“You’ve got a low pivot connected to a high pivot plus an X-marks-the-spot retrace, giving us two resistance factors into today’s open—and, needless to say, a small market pullback.”

Is this a one-day hiccup or the start of a multi-day sell-off? With valuations stretched near record highs, the risk/reward skews toward a deeper retracement—especially with earnings on deck. Historically, S&P pullbacks from trend resistance often last three to five trading days, offering swing traders clear thresholds to watch: a break below last week’s lows could signal a drop toward the 50-day moving average, while a reclamation of the trend line would reinforce the uptrend.

3. Earnings Season Preview: Delta Air Lines Cup-and-Handle

Full-throttle earnings season launches next week with the financials, but this Thursday brings Delta Air Lines, offering crucial travel-sector clues. Delta’s stock has tumbled from about $70 to the low $50s as the post-COVID travel boom normalizes and sentiment turns sour. Yet pessimism can set the stage for bullish surprises when “the bar is low.”

Technically, Delta sports a textbook cup-and-handle pattern:

The “cup” forms from the $70 peak down to low-$50s support and back up.
A slight consolidation builds the “handle,” contained within a parallel channel of aligned pivots.

“No guarantees in earnings, but this is a bullish pattern ahead of Thursday morning’s report.”

Cup-and-handle formations succeed about 65% of the time historically, especially when overall markets sit near highs. Traders can plot entries above the handle’s resistance (near the high-$50s) with stops below the handle’s low, targeting a move back toward $70.

4. Intermarket Themes: Dollar, Yields, and Bond-Equity Dynamics

Beyond equities, intermarket flows are signaling important inflection points:

U.S. Dollar (DXY): After recent gains, the dollar now approaches resistance at 97.75 on a downsloping trend line from its pivot high to low. “Probability says we retrace into that line—watch 97.75; odds favor rejection.” A failed break would boost commodity and emerging-market currencies, while a decisive break could pressure global equities.
10-Year Treasury Yield: The 10-year yield has retraced to its former support-turned-resistance trend line twice already. In classical technical terms, two tests favor another rejection. If yields reverse lower, this would remove a headwind for growth stocks. Conversely, a third or fourth test could set up a breakout toward 4.0%, renewing pressure on high-multiple sectors.

Historically, shifts in yields often lead or coincide with equity reversals. The yield-equity tug-of-war in mid-2024 demonstrated how a 40-basis-point move in 10-years can trigger a 3–4% S&P pullback.

5. Stock Highlights: Tesla and Semiconductors Under Pressure

Tesla (TSLA) is trading around $294 after gapping down below a trend line it had touched three times—a classic 50:50 setup turned slightly bearish.

“Odds of a break here are 60-40.”

Key levels:

– Support at $274, where buyers stepped in earlier this year

– Below that, prior consolidation lows near $250

News catalysts—Elon Musk’s political musings, potential contract risks, soft car deliveries, self-drive setbacks—compound technical weakness.

Semiconductors (SMH ETF) hit dual-factor resistance last Thursday: a double-top swirl to clear stops, plus an upsloping trend line. Given the Q3 rotation out of mega-cap tech, semis often lead this phase. History shows SMH pullbacks of 3–5% after such patterns, offering swing-trade entries on retracements toward the 50-day.

6. Sector Rotation: Old-School Names in the Spotlight

A recurring theme this quarter is money flowing into “old-school” value names. On Day 1 of Q3 2025:

Kraft Heinz (KHC) broke out of a downsloping wedge—watch for a bull-flag consolidation as a bullish continuation.
Merck (MRK) pierced its downtrend line; confirmation this week could spark a new leg higher.

Historically, Q3 sees funds rebalance from high-growth to stable, dividend-paying sectors. Traders can monitor relative strength in these names versus the S&P 500 to gauge the rotation’s conviction.

7. Crypto, Precious Metals, and Energy

Bitcoin’s Monthly Ceiling

Bitcoin has respected its long-term monthly trend line from 2017, capping at about $74,000 after each major correction (2021, 2024). A breakout above the $113,000–$115,000 zone would clear a decade-long ceiling and could propel BTC toward $150,000 or even $200,000. Until then, traders should treat this trend line as formidable resistance.

Gold & Silver Divergence

Gold closed below its ascending trend line, re-broke above without conviction, and now faces renewed selling. A confirmed break could trigger a flush to around $3,075 before resuming a bullish consolidation. Silver, by contrast, tested and closed above the same slope but hasn’t yet confirmed. This split often precedes broader precious-metals themes—watch for convergence or further divergence into key economic data this week.

Oil: Watching for a Bear-Flag

After taking profits on his long, Gareth notes oil’s pullback and rebound into flat territory following OPEC+’s half-million-barrel addition. No new trade yet—he’s eyeing a bear-flag formation. If confirmed, look for a drop toward the 50-day moving average, historically a magnet during OPEC supply adjustments.

Natural Gas: On the Brink of Breakdown

Natural gas has tested a critical trend line twice with failed recaptures. “Watch today’s close: a break below with confirmation could trade down to around $3.08–$3.09.” Seasonal demand typically peaks in winter, so a confirmed breakdown here could set the stage for a deeper Q3 correction.

Conclusion: Defining Your Edge with Clear Levels

The market’s ability to cut a roughly 45-point futures loss down to about 24 points by today’s open highlights the resilience of “animal spirits.” Yet technical cracks at key resistance levels—S&P 500 trend lines, dollar pivots, yield retracements, and single-stock patterns—underscore the growing risk of a more meaningful pullback. As earnings season ramps up, successful traders will rely on:

Multi-factor confluence (trend lines + pivots + retracements)
Probability-based levels (e.g., 97.75 on the DXY, $274 on TSLA)
Patience for confirmation (three trend-line touches before breakouts or fails)
Intermarket context (yield-equity, dollar-commodity, crypto-equity dynamics)

By mapping these levels in advance, maintaining discipline, and sizing positions according to edge, traders can navigate the next week of earnings, economic data, and trade headlines with clarity and confidence.