GAME PLAN REVEALED: 07/09/2025

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, walked viewers through key technical levels, macro catalysts, and warning signs flashing across multiple markets. From the approaching U.S. 10-year bond auction to complacency creeping into micro-caps, we break down the probability-driven takeaways that traders need to navigate the summer’s light volume and pivotal resistance zones.

Economic Catalysts: Delta Earnings and 10-Year Auction

This week’s earnings calendar is unusually quiet, with Delta Air Lines reporting tomorrow. More important today is the U.S. 10-year Treasury auction at 1 p.m. Eastern. Yields have climbed sharply this week—“the 10-year yield cracking basically 4.4%,” Gareth noted—and the auction will reveal whether demand remains strong.

A well-bid auction could keep yields capped or push them lower, offering relief for equities. Weak demand, on the other hand, may send yields higher and spark intraday volatility. Traders should watch the Treasury auction results alongside 10-year yield action and any fresh headlines on trade tensions.

S&P 500: Approaching Triple-Factor Resistance

On the daily S&P 500 chart, the index has pulled back gently after tagging yesterday’s high. The key zone of resistance sits near 6,300, defined by:

1. An up-sloping trend line from the September 2024 and January 13 lows

2. A parallel resistance line marking a triple-factor barrier

3. The market’s recent all-time high area

“This creates a zone up here of epic resistance,” Gareth explained. Light summer volume could keep the index floating, but a decisive break above 6,300 is essential for a sustained leg higher. Failure to clear this level may lead to a deeper pullback or consolidation, especially as traders await fresh catalysts.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Long-Term Trend Lines

Shifting to the Dow Jones weekly log chart reveals a major long-term trend line drawn from the 2007 pre-crisis high through the 2021 bull-market peak. That same line capped the index in 2024 and now sits near 46,800–47,000.

At this morning’s open around 44,400, the Dow has roughly 5% upside before hitting significant resistance. A break above 45,000 would flip the bias bullish and open the door to about 9–10% gains toward 48,000. Conversely, failure to overcome the shorter-term down-sloping trend line would maintain a cautious stance on the index.

U.S. Dollar and 10-Year Yield: Auction Impact

The U.S. dollar index is stalling against resistance in the 97.70–97.75 area. “Watch the 10-year bond auction at around 1 p.m.,” Gareth said, as the outcome will likely influence both the dollar and Treasury yields.

If demand is strong and yields drop, the dollar may break higher through this zone. If the auction disappoints, yields could spike, pressuring the dollar and boosting risk assets. Traders should track dollar futures, 10-year yields, and auction coverage ratios in real time.

VIX Complacency and the Micro-Cap Warning

Volatility is shrinking: the VIX hovers just under 16, edging into complacency territory. Historically, VIX lows average between 12 and 15. “The more complacency in the market, the lower it goes,” Gareth noted.

At the same time, penny stocks and micro-caps under $100 million market cap are surging—some up 500% in a day—reminiscent of 2021’s crypto and meme-stock frenzy. “It’s become a lottery… a get-rich-quick scheme,” he warned. This euphoric buying is a classic late-cycle indicator, but tops can arrive weeks or months before the eventual correction. Traders should resist chasing illiquid names and focus on higher-probability setups.

Sector and Stock Spotlights

Selected Mid-Small Cap Swing Trade

Gareth’s team identified a roughly $2 billion market-cap autonomous-driving play in China with WeRide (WRD). A clean wedge breakout above a down-sloping pivot line signals potential near-term upside to $12, where the high pivot provides clear resistance.

NVIDIA: Parallel Resistance at $164.25–$164.50

On the daily chart, parallel trend lines from prior highs and lows converge at $164.25–$164.50. “That’s where NVIDIA could be ready to correct,” Gareth said, noting the stock has minimal upside (about 2–2.5%) before a probable pullback. The SMH semiconductor ETF shows a similar up-sloping resistance zone.

Bitcoin: Short-Term Bull Flag to $112,000

Bitcoin formed a short-term bull flag, with the flagpole from the May low up to recent highs and sideways consolidation underneath. A break above the upper trend line opens a run toward the $112,000 double top. Beyond that, the next long-term trend-line targets sit near $114,000–$115,000, but charts caution that longer moves require breaching multiyear lines.

Commodities Check: Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas

• Gold: On the daily chart, gold nears the edge of its longer-term uptrend from December 2024. A breakdown would likely send it toward $3,000, a compelling buy zone for a potential rally to $3,500–$4,000.

• Silver: After holding above its short-term trend line yesterday, silver remains in bull-flag mode. A confirmed break higher could fuel another leg up.

• Oil: Crude tagged the top of its parallel bearish flag and pulled back twice, hinting at a developing bear-flag follow-through. Short entries may emerge if oil fails to reclaim the upper boundary.

• Natural Gas: After testing a five-touch trend line and finally breaking it, natural gas appears headed to $3.08–$3.09, where buyers previously stepped in.

Conclusion: Chart-Driven Probabilities

Summer’s low-volume drift and limited catalysts demand a probability-focused approach. As Gareth emphasized, “No BS—just charts here at Verified Investing,” cutting through hype and emotion. Key resistance zones on the S&P 500 (6,300) and Dow (46,800–47,000), auction‐driven moves in bonds and the dollar, and complacency signals from VIX and micro-caps should guide positioning. High-probability setups in NVIDIA, Bitcoin, gold, and selected small- to mid-caps offer defined risk-reward profiles. By letting the charts speak and respecting technical barriers, traders can maintain discipline and favorable win rates through the summer.