GAME PLAN REVEALED: 07/11/2025

This morning on GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, kicked off Friday’s session by outlining three headline-driving factors before diving into chart analysis across equities, fixed income, commodities, and crypto. From a surprise 35% tariff threat on Canada to escalating political attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and a stark warning from Jamie Dimon about sticky inflation and higher yields, markets opened under notable pressure. Below, we unpack these catalysts, provide historical context, and expand on the key technical levels every trader should monitor.

1. Tariff Shock on Canada: Timing and Market Impact

In a surprise late-evening announcement, the Trump administration threatened 35% tariffs on Canada starting August 1st, with the potential for further escalation if there’s retaliation. As Gareth noted:

“Trump announced that again there will be new tariffs potentially starting on August 1st: 35% on Canada.”

Canada ranks among the U.S.’s largest trading partners, making this threat more meaningful than prior tariff letters on smaller economies. The timing—released at exactly 8:00 p.m. Eastern, after the close of after-hours trading—mirrors a tactic used before the July 4th holiday to maximize pre-open impact. By staging news flow when markets can’t react immediately, policymakers can amplify volatility once trading resumes.

Historical precedent shows that sharp tariff escalations often trigger equity pullbacks and bond rallies as import-cost concerns and profit-margin compression dominate investor sentiment. In 2018’s U.S.–China trade war, similar late-night tweets led to overnight losses in futures, setting a bearish tone for the next session. Traders should now consider heightened risk around August 1st, with contingency plans for rapid sell-offs or knee-jerk rebounds if negotiations re-open.

2. Political Pressure on the Fed: Credibility at Risk

Beyond trade tensions, Gareth highlighted intensifying attacks on Fed Chair Powell:

“The attacks on Fed Chair Powell have continued to increase from the administration. They’re now talking about whether the Federal Reserve and the chairman have broken laws.”

Central bank independence has been a cornerstone of modern monetary policy since the 1980s. When political forces challenge that independence—especially through public calls for investigations—they risk spooking global investors who rely on predictable U.S. policy. A loss of confidence could drive up yields as foreign holders of Treasuries demand higher risk premia to compensate for perceived political interference.

During the Volcker era, aggressive rate hikes battled inflation but Reagan-era politics generally respected Fed autonomy. Today’s rhetoric signals a departure, potentially undermining the dollar’s reserve-currency status if seen as destabilizing. Traders should monitor Treasury auctions for signs of under-subscriptions or yield spikes that might confirm erosion of confidence.

3. Inflation Risks and the Long End: Jamie Dimon’s Warning

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, added fuel to the market fire:

“He thinks rates could go up and that the markets are not adequately pricing in the risk of rates still going higher.”

Dimon pointed to two drivers of renewed inflationary pressure: tariffs raising import costs, and labor shortages caused by deportations. Farms and hotels are already reporting difficulty filling roles at current wage levels, suggesting U.S. employers may bid up wages for essential, low-pay roles. The result could be a cyclical uptick in inflation across goods and services.

Crucially, Dimon earmarked the long end of the yield curve—10-year and 30-year Treasuries—as vulnerable. The Fed controls the short end; markets set the long end based on growth and inflation expectations. With CPI and PPI data due next week alongside earnings from Netflix (NFLX) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), traders should brace for heightened volatility in benchmark yields. A sustained rise in the 10-year yield would pressure growth stocks and mortgage rates alike.

4. Equity Market Technical Landscape

S&P 500: Mammoth Resistance Zone

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 sits under a “mammoth resistance” zone formed by three diverging trend lines:

“This area on the S&P is mammoth resistance, with three trend lines diverging.”

After a pullback a few days ago, the index drifted higher but remained below these trend lines. With futures down at the open, the key question is whether the market can find dip-buyers or succumb to institutional selling. A failure to reclaim this resistance could trigger a deeper pullback toward prior support levels.

U.S. Dollar (DXY): Watch the Daily Close

The dollar index (DXY) has repeatedly pierced, but not yet closed above, resistance at 97.75. Early in the day it trades at 97.82, but the true test lies in a daily close. A sustained break above 97.75 would revive dollar bulls and potentially weigh on commodities and emerging markets. Conversely, a failure could embolden risk assets.

Treasury Yields: Bullish Momentum

Following Dimon’s comments, the 10-year Treasury yield is pushing higher. Next week’s CPI and PPI prints will be pivotal. If yields continue to climb, high-growth equities may face renewed selling pressure. Keep an eye on the 10-year yield closing above trend-line resistance drawn from the May and June peaks.

5. Mega-Cap Stock Setups and Warning Signals

NVIDIA: $4 Trillion Market-Cap Resistance

NVIDIA recently flirted with a $4 trillion market-cap close but stalled at a key parallel trend line:

“We did get a $4 trillion close on Nvidia’s market cap yesterday, but it’s still at a big resistance point.”

This trend line, connecting prior all-time highs, has repeatedly capped upside. A conviction break and hold above it would signal broad AI-tech strength; failure risks a pullback toward $700 on the stock.

Meta: Bear Flag in the Making

Meta shows signs of a developing bear flag after a possible double top and gap sweep:

“You might have a bearish pattern developing: a double top, a gap above to wipe out weak-handed shorts, then an inside-bar flag.”

The flag’s lower boundary sits around $712.50. On pre-market levels near $723, a breakdown below 712.50 would give bears control, potentially targeting the May lows near $680.

Netflix: Leading Indicator for Valuations

Netflix, once surging from $165 in 2022 to highs of $1,340, is now about $100 off those peaks. As arguably the strongest mega-cap, its rollover may presage broader valuation fatigue. With the S&P forward P/E near 23, all-time rich territory, watch Netflix for early signals of market stress.

CrowdStrike: Diverging from the Broader Market

CrowdStrike reversed off its trend line twice and dropped 5% yesterday, even as the broad market held up:

“A lot of big names are showing weakness in the last few days, despite the market grinding higher.”

This divergence underscores sector-specific vulnerabilities. Cybersecurity names often lead in risk-off phases due to stretched growth multiples.

Amazon: Flag and Potential Gap Fill

Amazon displays a classic flag pattern on its daily chart:

“Watch for a break of this trend line: any daily close below $219 and it’s vulnerable back to about $208, then the gap fill at $193.”

Still in an uptrend since April, a decisive close below $219 would open a window to deeper retracements.

6. Crypto and Precious Metals: Key Levels

Bitcoin: Weekly Close at $115K

Bitcoin soared above the long-term trend line connecting the 2017–2021 highs to the 2024 peak, yet it awaits a weekly close:

“Come Sunday night, where does this candle close? Back to about $115K or below? The weekly close will be key.”

A hold above $115,000 would confirm bullish control; a failure to close above invites a retest of the trend line.

Ethereum: Multi-Factor Short Entry

Gareth initiated a small short on Ethereum after it retested an up-sloping support line that failed to hold:

“You have an up-sloping trend line that’s been support multiple times… a breakdown, a retrace to the scene of the crime.”

As a short-term trader, he “gets a toe in the water” at this multi-factor resistance zone. A clear break below the trend line could accelerate downside.

Gold and Silver: Diverging Moves

Gold has recaptured strength on tariff and inflation fears, approaching a convergence of two trend lines that will force a breakout or breakdown:

“Gold is vulnerable, but in the next week we’ll likely know whether it breaks out or breaks down.”

Silver, at $37.66, broke out of its consolidation and eyes the next resistance near $39, defined by a trend line to every major top since 2022.

7. Commodities: Oil and Natural Gas Patterns

U.S. Oil: Bear Flag in Play

Crude oil continues within a bearish flag after a sharp reversal from resistance:

“Bear flags generally resolve to the downside… until it breaks, you respect it.”

A break below the flag’s lower boundary could retest recent lows.

Natural Gas: Key Trend-Line Test

Natural gas bounced yesterday and sits at trend-line resistance. A failure here would resume the downtrend from May’s highs, whereas a clean break could spark a short squeeze.

Conclusion: Navigating Elevated Risk

Today’s convergence of political, trade, and inflation-driven concerns sets a cautious tone heading into next week’s crucial CPI, PPI, and major tech earnings. Markets face “mammoth resistance” in equities, a pivotal dollar close above 97.75, and a must-watch Bitcoin weekly close at $115,000. Whether dip-buyers emerge or institutional sellers dominate will hinge on the interplay of these factors.

By respecting key technical levels—be they multi-factor confluence zones in equities, trend-line tests in crypto, or classic flag patterns in commodities—traders can approach elevated volatility with clear risk parameters. As Gareth reminds us, discipline and patience around predefined levels remain the bedrock of probability-based trading.