GAME PLAN REVEALED: 07/14/2025

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, walked through key technical levels across stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and crypto. Against the backdrop of looming tariff threats on Mexico and the EU, a wave of bank and tech earnings, plus fresh inflation data, traders face a busy week. Below, we unpack the charts and expand on the themes that will drive markets as we head into Tuesday’s CPI, Wednesday’s PPI, and a raft of major corporate reports.

1. Tariff Talk and Stock Futures: A Cautious Tilt Lower

Equity futures opened the week on the back foot after news that the administration may impose 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU starting August 1 if no deal is reached. Futures slid modestly—“down, but not dramatically,” Gareth noted—as traders gauge whether this is a real escalation or a negotiating bluff.

Historical context: markets often overreact to headline risk before settling back when deadlines are postponed. In past trade disputes, futures dipped only to rebound when negotiations lingered. With President Trump’s track record of kicking cans down the road, many believe that a full escalation is unlikely—at least immediately. Still, as we approach August 1, this threat could act as a “sword of Damocles,” capping upside in the more cyclical sectors.

2. S&P 500: “X Marks the Spot” for Near-Term Resistance

On the S&P 500 daily chart, three rising trend lines converge at the current price zone—a technical formation Gareth calls “X marks the spot.” Last Thursday, the index briefly made a new all-time high but closed back below the converging lines. Today’s slightly lower open tests whether bulls can reclaim that zone or whether sellers reassert control.

Why it matters: converging trend lines create a choke point where momentum often stalls. When retail bullishness reaches extremes—sentiment surveys above 70% bulls, for example—historical precedents show near-term tops can form. For traders, watching how the S&P behaves around this convergence offers clues on whether to chase breakouts or prepare for a pullback.

3. U.S. Dollar & 10-Year Yield: Key Lines in the Sand

Dollar at the Precipice

The U.S. dollar index is testing a long-term down-sloping trend line and horizontal resistance between 97.75 and 98. A confirmed break above 98 could unleash a multi-month rally, especially if tomorrow’s CPI beats expectations and pushes Fed rate-cut probabilities further out.

Yields and the Debt Load

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.43%. A break above that opens 4.55% next. Rising yields pressure equity valuations: each 0.5% rise in yields adds hundreds of billions in annual interest on the roughly $37 trillion U.S. debt, with $7 trillion maturing this year. Markets have historically sold off when yields spike rapidly—think late 2018—so watching yields around these levels is critical for equity positioning.

4. China Equities: NIO and Baidu’s Technical Appeal

NIO: Bull-Flag Entry Zone

NIO is trading around $4.10, up from about $3.30, showing a V-bottom and a bull-flag/cup-and-handle pattern. Gareth emphasized patience: “I’m not buying at $4.10; I’d rather wait for a retrace bull flag down to $3.70–$3.75 to enter, keeping risk strict.”

Baidu (BIDU): Scene of the Crime

BIDU has pierced a down-sloping trend line and is pulling back toward that breakout zone—the so-called “scene of the crime.” If the prior resistance holds as support, this setup could offer a mid-term entry opportunity with defined risk just below the pivot.

5. Caterpillar: Classic “X Marks the Spot” at Resistance

Industrial bellwether Caterpillar is bumping into resistance at the intersection of its 2023 ascending trend line and a gap-fill zone. This confluence mirrors the S&P setup: trendline meets price gap. In past cycles, these gaps often act first as magnets, then barriers, before decisive moves. Swing traders might look for a pullback toward those trend levels and a trendline flip for entries, aiming to ride a breakout if it occurs.

6. Crypto: Breakouts, Resistance Tests, and the Altcoin Wave

Bitcoin Clears a Long-Term Barrier

For the first time since the 2021 peak, Bitcoin has weekly-closed above the 2017–2021 bull-market trend line near $16,000. Gareth cautioned, “We still want to see a monthly close, but momentum is strong. If Bitcoin ever closes back below that trend line, it would be a clear exit signal for swing traders.”

Surveying history: Bitcoin’s monthly closes above key trend lines in 2013 and 2017 preceded explosive bull runs. A monthly confirmation above the trend line could attract fresh fund flows from institutions and retail alike.

Ethereum’s $3,050 Pivot

ETH is battling resistance at $3,050, defined by an up-sloping trend line and prior pivot high. A daily‐confirmed breakout above $3,050 could fuel a rally toward $4,000. If rejected, support near $2,800–$2,850 holds the first line.

XRP Eyes $3.37 Top

XRP has stalled at $3.00 resistance after tagging $2.95 support. A break above $3.00 could target the next pivot at $3.37. Beneath that, $2.80 remains critical.

Altcoin Rotation

After lagging, altcoins have joined the crypto rally, spreading risk-on sentiment beyond BTC and ETH. Historically, alt-season follows Bitcoin’s validation of a new uptrend. Watching market‐cap leadership—like Solana and Cardano—for early breakouts can pinpoint entries within this phase.

7. Precious Metals: Gold’s Wedge & Silver’s Target Hit

Gold’s Seven-Touch Wedge

Gold remains in a contracting wedge, repeatedly touching a trend line from December 2024—an unusual seven interactions that typically weaken a trend line’s integrity. A daily close above $3,420 would break the pattern, opening $3,500 and ultimately $4,000. On the downside, support hugs a rising trend near $3,330, with secondary support at $3,050.

Trend-line touches: In classical technical analysis, each trend-line test reduces its statistical significance. Seven touches test the resolve of trend followers, making a decisive break more probable than in a clean, two-touch formation.

Silver Meets $39 Objective

Silver has hit Gareth’s $39 target today. That level aligns with the 2022 up-sloping trend and key 2023–2024 pivots, creating a near-term resistance zone. Traders will watch how silver handles this level for clues on the next move.

8. Energy: Oil’s Bear Flag & Natural Gas Bounce

Oil at Bear-Flag Ceiling

Crude oil is tagging the upper boundary of a bear-flag formation. Unless it confirms a break above the flag—with heavy volume—the mid-term bias remains down. Traders eyeing shorts might wait for a clear break below the flag’s lower trend for execution.

Natural Gas Finds Footing

Natural gas dropped below $33.37 support last week, then reversed with a bullish hammer candle and recaptured the level. Today’s pause with slight upside suggests indecision, and it hasn’t yet retested lower levels after the reversal.

9. U.S. Tech: Nvidia & Semiconductors on Watch

Nvidia’s Trend-Line Test

NVDA pierced its rising trend line on Friday but was quickly rejected. This false breakout creates a vulnerability if the trend support fails. We’ll watch that closely for signs of a deeper pullback.

SMH ETF Resistance

The SMH semiconductor ETF sits at its primary up-sloping trend line from 2023. With Nvidia struggling, the sector faces a key test: reclaim the trend or risk a reversion to lower levels.

Tech context: semiconductors have led major equity cycles—1987, 2000, 2007—often topping before broad markets. Watching SMH’s trend integrity can provide early signals for sector rotation.

Conclusion: Volatility Ahead, Discipline Required

This week’s confluence of CPI, PPI, options expiration, bank and tech earnings, plus trade-war rhetoric, creates a prime volatility cocktail. History shows that back-to-back catalysts can fuel sharp one-day moves, followed by mean reversion traps. As Gareth reminded viewers, “The charts are the charts, the levels are the levels. I’ll guide you as best I can.”

Key takeaways for traders:

1. Respect critical trend-line and gap-fill zones before scaling in.

2. Use multi-factor confluence (trend lines, pivots, volume) to build higher-probability setups.

3. Position size with discipline: plan entries on retracements rather than chasing breakouts.

4. Watch intermarket relationships—yields vs. stocks, dollar vs. commodities—for broader context.

5. Maintain humility; markets often humble the most confident participants.

Whether you’re swing trading NIO’s bull-flag retrace, monitoring Bitcoin’s monthly close, or eyeing oil’s flag, the charts will light your path. Stay patient, keep risk tight, and remember: volatility can be an ally when you know where to draw your lines.