GAME PLAN REVEALED: 07/15/2025
This morning on GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected the day’s biggest market drivers—from fresh CPI numbers and looming trade-war threats to a semiconductor surge led by Nvidia, plus critical setups across stocks, crypto, and commodities. Below, we unpack the key themes, add historical perspective, and highlight the technical levels traders need to monitor.
1. CPI Data and Trade-War Implications
Thirty minutes before the open, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released June’s CPI data. Overall inflation held at expectations, with headline month-over-month at 0.3% and year-over-year at 2.7% (vs. 2.6% prior). Core CPI—excluding volatile food and energy—came in cooler: 0.2% month-over-month (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.9% year-over-year (vs. 3.0%).
"The core rate matters because removing food and energy gives you the true picture of underlying inflation," Gareth explained, noting swings in oil—from $77 to $65 a barrel amid Middle East tensions—that underscore why core excludes these items.
Historical context: Since the 1980s, central banks have focused on core inflation to avoid overreacting to transient spikes. Today’s soft core reading suggests the Federal Reserve has room to hold or even cut rates later in the year if trends persist.
But Gareth raised a strategic question: could these benign numbers embolden the administration to follow through on threatened tariff hikes—35% on Canada, 30% on Mexico and the EU—set to take effect August 1st? The market “has been ignoring” this risk, he cautioned, but a surprise escalation in trade barriers could rapidly become a new inflation catalyst.
2. Semiconductor Surge and Nvidia’s Next Resistance
Overnight, S&P 500 futures popped sharply—driven by a surprise reversal of the ban on high-end Nvidia chips to China. Last Thursday, Jensen Huang met President Trump at the White House; by week’s end Trump rescinded the export controls on H100 and H200 AI processors. Futures vaulted higher, then settled into a modest gain.
Nvidia reflects the move in real time. Pre-market, NVDA spiked to about $172.80 before pulling back slightly and trading above $172 at the open.
"This is your last technical resistance around $170 to $171," Gareth noted, pointing to a two-factor level:
- A long-term support-turned-resistance trend line from January 2024 lows through subsequent August and September pivots.
- An upper trend line linking June 2024 highs with the November 2024 peak.
Historically, such confluence zones often cap advances until volume and momentum align for a breakout. Semiconductors have led this market cycle—AMD, Texas Instruments, and Micron also rallied on the news—so watching whether Nvidia can hold above this multi-month ceiling will signal whether the chip party continues or pauses.
3. S&P 500’s Resilience Amid Bearish Risks
Despite mixed economic headlines and geopolitical headwinds, the S&P 500 remains in a grinding uptrend. At roughly +0.5% on the open, the index approaches three converging trend lines anchored on pivot highs and lows.
Gareth reminded viewers: "The market ignores risks until it doesn’t." In past cycles, markets similarly shrugged off valuations, inflation scares, and trade tensions until a catalyst forced a re-rating. Today’s setup warns that a break above those trend lines could fuel another leg higher, while a failure might precede a broader pullback.
Key takeaway: Twenty-six years of chart reading have taught Gareth that technical levels carry probabilities, not certainties. A close above the converged resistance around current levels would raise odds of a rally into late summer, whereas a rollover could see the S&P revisit recent support zones.
4. Earnings Season Highlights: Banks, The Trade Desk, ASML, TSM, and Palantir
This week’s earnings marathon covers major financials and chip leaders.
• JPMorgan (JPM): Reported in line, but the daily chart shows a bear-flag pattern. "I’d consider a short into the $292 gap fill, targeting roughly $268 on a rollover," Gareth said.
• Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock: Despite solid results, all have rallied sharply into earnings—classic “priced for perfection” setups that often reverse.
• Robinhood vs. The Trade Desk: The Trade Desk ($37 billion market cap) was added to the S&P 500, while Robinhood ($100 billion) was passed over. Gareth speculated that the S&P committee feared Robinhood’s volatility post-inclusion.
• ASML (tomorrow): The European lithography leader has underperformed peers, yet has still risen from ~$580 to $825 but below all-time highs. A rejection around $880–$877 (recent pivot high) would signal a pullback across broad chip stocks.
• Taiwan Semiconductor (Thursday): TSM has already begun pulling back into a long-term trend line. Buffett-style, Gareth remains “slightly bearish” given the vertical run.
• Palantir (PLTR): The stock continues to respect a parallel channel, recently touching the upper trend around $150 before a pullback—an actionable pattern until broken.
Earnings season underscores the importance of multi-factor confluence: gap fills, pivot points, and channel resistance all converge to identify high-probability entry and exit zones.
5. Cryptocurrencies in Transition: Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin formed an epic topping tail at an all-time high, with a long upper wick and close in the lower 25% of the candle range—a textbook bearish signal. Gareth broke down the pattern:
*"Every topping tail can fail, but odds now flip negative unless BTC closes above that high defined by the tail."*
Today, Bitcoin retraced to test a weekly trend line from the 2017 peak—another pivotal level. A decisive weekly close below it would reinforce the bearish case; a strong rebound above the topping tail high would negate the signal and restore bullish momentum.
Ethereum, by contrast, held resistance at $3,050–$3,100 but turned green on the day—demonstrating relative strength to Bitcoin. When ETH outperforms BTC intra-day, it often heralds additional upside for altcoins and signals a healthier crypto market overall.
6. Commodities and Chart Patterns: Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas
• Gold: Trading inside a contracting wedge between $3,330 support (late-2024 trend line) and $3,420 resistance. Wedges compress volatility until a breakout—up toward $4,000 if resistance yields, or down to $3,050 on a breakdown.
• Silver: Hit Gareth’s $39 target, then formed a topping tail—an echo of Bitcoin’s reversal pattern. "Charts don’t care about your bias; topping tails at highs often resolve lower," he reminded.
• Oil: Bear flag after a sharp decline and tight inside-bar consolidation signals further downside. Historical bear flags in crude often resolve with continuation of the prior drop.
• Natural Gas: Respecting a new trend line from recent pivot lows near $2.63–$2.64. Interim resistance sits at $3.75 (pivot highs). A break below $3.20 could see a swift move back to $2.64.
These commodity patterns demonstrate the power of simple flag, wedge, and channel formations to anticipate directional moves when combined with volume and macro context.
Conclusion: Patience, Probability, and Preparedness
Today’s GAME PLAN showcased markets grinding higher on light volume, buoyed by soft core CPI, a lifted chip ban, and broad earnings flows. Yet beneath the surface, numerous technical setups—from S&P trend lines to topping tails in crypto and commodities—warn of inflection points ahead.
Gareth’s enduring lesson resonates: trading is about probabilities, not certainties. By respecting multi-factor confluence, maintaining discipline and risk management, and staying alert to evolving chart patterns, traders can navigate both grind-higher phases and sudden reversals.
Tomorrow brings PPI data and ASML earnings—new catalysts that could tip the balance. As always, the charts will lead the way.
