GAME PLAN REVEALED: 07/22/2025

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, unpacked a series of technical warning signs and evolving setups across equities, fixed income, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. After yesterday’s topping-tail reversal in the S&P 500—even leadership names like NVIDIA closed lower—the charts are flashing caution. From a broken trend line in the S&P to a potential head-and-shoulders in the 10-year Treasury yield, plus rug-pulls in microcaps and key levels in gold, silver, oil, natural gas, and Bitcoin, today’s article expands on these themes, historical precedents, and the psychology driving retail and institutional flows.

S&P 500 Trend-Line Break and Topping-Tail Signal

Yesterday’s session saw the S&P 500 surge then reverse, finishing flat.

“Stocks like NVIDIA… reversed and actually closing to the downside. That’s something we have not seen recently, especially since the semis have been such leaders.”

On the daily chart, price closed below the uptrend connecting the April 7 pivot low and June 23 pivot, a critical trend line broken on July 15 and retested multiple times without recapture. The small topping tail that followed—closing in the lower 25% of its range—acts as a textbook bearish reversal signal, though its modest size tempers its authority. Historically, topping tails near major highs have preceded multi-week corrections when confirmed by additional bearish price action.

Treasury Yields: Wedge Pattern and Head-and-Shoulders Setup

The 10-year Treasury yield has formed a contracting wedge—a consolidation after its recent run—to be resolved by a decisive break.

“One thing I’d like to point out… you could make a case for a head and shoulders on the 10-year yield.”

A valid head-and-shoulders would trigger on a break below the neckline at roughly 4.21%. Measuring the distance from the head peak to the neckline projects a descent toward ~3.75%. Such a move would signal significant future economic weakness—an outcome yet unsupported by data but critical to monitor alongside the wedge.

U.S. Dollar Holds Minor Support

The DXY broke above a short-term trend line last week but failed to confirm. It remains flat today, holding above that minor support. A breakdown back below could grind toward 95.75, while a rally could resume the dollar’s recent uptrend.

Microcap Mania: Rug-Pull Warning Signs

Retail-driven microcaps have exploded—up 300–500% in days—only to collapse intraday. Opendoor Technologies ran up about 550% over six days, then in a span of 30 minutes collapsed from $5 to $2.80, carving a bear-flag formation.

“Essentially it tells us what the money is doing.”

Institutional participants often allow retail frenzies until the mania peaks, then execute rug pulls—dumping into retail demand. This pattern echoes past speculative excesses (e.g., early-2021 meme stock blow-ups) and signals that broader risk assets may be vulnerable.

Big-Cap Earnings Movers and Retail Favorites

Several large-cap names are testing key levels after earnings or topping signals:

• Lockheed Martin (pre-market ~$425): Major support lies in the $400–$393 gap-fill/pivot zone—about $27 below current prices.

• General Motors (post-earnings drag from $1.1 billion tariff charge): The first resistance zone is near $50, marked by three swing highs.

• Robinhood, Palantir, Coinbase: Each formed a doji atop long-term trend lines, reinforcing bearish setups.

“A doji is not as good as a topping tail, but when you have a long-term trend line… that reinforces the bearish signal.”

As microcaps roll over, big-cap retail favorites at $100 billion+ valuations are also stalling—suggesting a rotation or correction may broaden.

Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver: Key Chart Battles

• Bitcoin: The bear flag and topping tail remain dominant. Until broken decisively, bearish consolidation holds sway.

• Gold: A wedge pattern has confined price. A break above ~$3,425 would target $3,500, while a failure below the December uptrend line implies a drop toward $3,000.

• Silver: Bulls aim to close above $39.25—the recent topping-tail high—an outcome that would pave the way to $40 per ounce.

Energy Charts: Crude Oil and Natural Gas

• Crude Oil: A bear-flag breakdown is underway. First support sits at $63.70, then $60.

• Natural Gas: Declining toward support at $3.18–$3.19; a break could accelerate the selloff.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

Taken together—the S&P 500 trend-line break with topping tail, a wedge or head-and-shoulders in yields, microcap rug pulls, key doji signals in retail favorites, and critical levels in commodities and crypto—suggest caution.

“Be ready for some sort of roll here.”

Upcoming catalysts include the August 1 tariff deadline, the Federal Reserve meeting, Google earnings, and Texas Instruments after the bell. The VIX’s complacency adds to the risk: “The VIX… always makes me nervous.” Traders and investors should monitor these technical levels, maintain disciplined risk management, and stay prepared for a potential market turn.