GAME PLAN REVEALED: Semis, Meme Stocks & Market Signals

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, broke down a torrent of developments: Texas Instruments’ disappointing earnings, a newfound U.S.–Japan trade deal, the wildfire pace of meme‐stock mania, plus technical setups in crypto and commodities. Below, we unpack these key themes—adding historical context, detailed chart analysis, and actionable levels—for traders who didn’t catch the live show and investors seeking a strategic edge.

1. S&P 500’s Reaction: Trade Deal vs. Semiconductor Drag

After two straight days of selling, S&P 500 futures turned higher overnight on news of a comprehensive trade deal with Japan—trading partners agreed to slash roughly 15% tariffs across the board.

Yesterday’s session saw an initial dump, sideways consolidation, then a late grind higher as futures reacted to the Japan accord.
The critical question now: will Texas Instruments and Enphase earnings drag semis and solar stocks lower, or can trade‐deal optimism prop up equities?

This tug‐of‐war between fundamental headwinds and geopolitical catalysts is classic late‐cycle behavior. In 2019, announcements of U.S.–China “Phase One” talks similarly lifted futures, only to see sectors like autos buckle when corporate earnings fell short. Today, watchers should note whether the S&P can sustain gains above Monday’s topping‐tail high at 6,336.82.

2. Trend Lines and Technical Caution on the S&P

On the daily chart, the S&P remains below a major trend line connecting the April 7 lows to early July highs. Gareth likened the current setup to a caution signal:

"It’s a yellow flashing light in front of us. It’s not a red light, which is stop or danger—it’s a yellow, which is caution."

A close back above 6,336.82 would negate Monday’s topping tail and pivot points, removing part of the negative bias and opening the door to test the white trend line overhead. Failure to reclaim that level keeps the index in a warning zone—vulnerable but not doomed.

3. Dollar Strength and the 20-Year Bond Auction

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has trended along a lower support line, bouncing modestly today. At 1 p.m. ET, a 20-year Treasury auction will test foreign appetite for long-dated debt amid record deficits.

With U.S. debt approaching $60 trillion—and projections of $90–$100 trillion—sustained foreign demand is no sure thing once trade deals close.
In the short run, however, geopolitical incentives often buoy auctions. Gareth expects a smooth sale, but a weak bid could send yields sharply higher.

On the 10-year Treasury yield, five consecutive down days have forged a wedge pattern. Wedges compress until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs; traders should watch the July 10 pivot for yield direction.

4. Semiconductor Sector Under Pressure: Texas Instruments

Texas Instruments (TI) plunged over 10% after reporting lackluster earnings, after having rallied roughly 55% from its April 7 lows. Intraday, the stock dipped to $188 before a bounce; for multi-day traders, Gareth identified:

"It’s a three‐factor level: a descending trend line at about $178.50, a gap fill at around $176, and the 50% Fibonacci retracement in that range."

That $176–$178 zone is likely to offer firmer support and could spark a $10-plus swing if reached within the next week or two. Historically, semiconductors often retrace half their advance before resuming a broader uptrend—making this Fibonacci area critical.

5. Meme Stock Mania: From Kohl’s to WeRide

Retail momentum-chasing is in full swing: Kohl’s ran from $10 to $21 pre-market then collapsed back toward $13, and Doughnut-themed D-Nut names jumped without warning. GoPro—a former 2014–2015 favorite—exploded from $0.60 on June 30 to $2.70 pre-market, only to pull back sharply once short‐covering subsided.

Gareth warns that such “max speculation” signals near‐term exhaustion:

"When you see altcoins on the 300–500 coin market-cap list ripping 100% in a day, that’s max speculation."

One emerging name, WeRide—an autonomous-driving play in China trading near a $1 billion market cap—could be next. But history tells us these trades often last only 1–2 days before the rug is pulled. Traders should define entry and exit levels tightly and size positions for high-volatility environments.

6. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and Ethereum Patterns

Bitcoin tried to break out of a bear‐flag consolidation but was rebuffed by a prominent topping tail. As Gareth noted:

"If you close above the topping tail—say, above $123,265—then it negates it and the bull continues."

Until that level is cleared, downside probability remains higher in the mid-$100,000s. Ethereum sits beneath its downsloping trend line, with solid support at $2,800—“a no-brainer buy” if tested—and significant resistance near $4,000. These crypto setups mirror equity technicals: momentum must confirm before fresh entries.

7. Commodities Snapshot: Gold, Silver, Oil, and Natural Gas

Gold formed a tight wedge after a fractional close above yesterday’s high, but needs today’s follow‐through to confirm a breakout toward all-time highs. A failed bond auction could fuel a gold surge, yet for now it remains in a compression zone that typically precedes a sizable move either way.

Silver, however, negated its topping‐tail by closing yesterday above the trend line. If today’s close holds, silver could press $48–$50.

Oil continues its classic flagpole bearish consolidation and has broken below the pattern, approaching support around $63.70—likely to bounce toward $67 before resuming a downtrend to $60 or lower. Natural gas is poking through support for the fourth time, leaving odds at 50/50. Gareth advises waiting for a cleaner entry near $2.98–$2.99 pivot rather than gambling on a marginal setup.

Conclusion: Navigating Signals and Staying Disciplined

As we head into Tesla and Alphabet earnings after today’s close, plus a critical 20-year bond auction, markets offer a blend of cautionary warnings and tactical opportunities. Key takeaways:

Semiconductor retracements could pressure broader indices despite trade‐deal optimism.
S&P trend‐line resistance and topping tails demand respect; a close above 6,336.82 would alleviate caution.
Meme stocks and crypto flag patterns provide short-term plays but carry heightened risk of sudden reversals.
Commodities and bonds are compressing in wedges and flags—breaks from these patterns tend to be sharp and lasting.

Maintaining focused levels, strict risk management, and an awareness of fleeting momentum themes will enable disciplined positioning as markets test both bulls and bears in the weeks ahead.