GAME PLAN REVEALED: S&P Wedge, Dollar Pivot & Earnings Levels

In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, walked viewers through the key technical setups and price levels shaping today’s action. As Gareth reminded us, “No BS, no hype, no narratives. It is what it is; it’s in the charts.” In today’s article, we’ll unpack the signals behind yesterday’s European trade‐deal headlines, review the S&P 500’s technical landscape, spotlight a dozen earnings reactions, and preview the critical events ahead—providing deeper context, historical perspective, and clear levels for both day traders and swing traders alike.

1. Market Reaction to the European Trade‐Deal Framework

Yesterday’s announcement of a tentative European trade framework sent global markets higher at the open—but the rally quickly faded. The Nasdaq eked out a small gain on semiconductor leadership, while the S&P 500 closed flat. Gareth noted:

“You might say, ‘Markets were flattish, why did the VIX inch up?’ That’s precisely the question you want to ask: why are institutions buying protection in a market that seems to go up every single day?”

Historically, these subtle divergences between equity indexes and the VIX—often called the “fear index”—have foreshadowed turning points. When institutional players buy put protection despite unchanged or rising prices, it suggests underlying uncertainty. Over his 26‐year career, Gareth has learned that a VIX reading near 15 can be a warning: if the VIX rises while prices remain stable, odds increasingly favor at least a short‐term pullback.

2. S&P 500 Technical Landscape: Wedges, Resistance & Volume Absence

Turning to S&P 500 futures, Gareth pointed out the meager 11-point gain from yesterday’s 6,423 close to today’s 6,434 futures price. On the daily chart, the index has been grinding higher in tight candles—up just 0.1–0.25% per day—with multiple trend lines forming a large wedge from the April lows.

“The markets have floated higher, but notice how tiny these candles are—a slow grind of a tenth to a quarter percent a day with a couple of flat days. Institutional volume is absent; the levels above create a wall of resistance.”

Wedge patterns like this often resolve with volatility. In past cycles (for example, late 2018 and mid-2022), prolonged wedges preceded swift 2–3% declines once sellers found conviction. The flat trading range and lack of institutional participation raise the risk of an abrupt pullback should a catalyst—like disappointing Fed guidance—arrive.

Key levels to watch on the S&P 500:

Immediate resistance near the upper trendline of the wedge
Support if a breakdown occurs around the lower trendline near 5,000

3. Dollar Strength Signals & Implications Ahead of FOMC

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) pierced a short‐term pivot high yesterday—the first higher high in months. Though not a massive move, it’s a breadcrumb signaling dollar strength ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC statement.

“Why is the dollar strong? Probably because markets don’t expect the Fed to be too dovish in tomorrow’s FOMC statement—economic data this week looks reasonably good, including non‐farm payrolls and PCE inflation.”

Historically, when the dollar rallies into Fed meetings, risk assets often struggle, as stronger currency translates into tighter financial conditions abroad and weighs on corporate earnings. For now, the short‐term trend favors USD bulls, though Gareth remains long‐term bearish on the dollar’s purchasing power.

4. Earnings Spotlight: Precise Day‐Trade & Swing Levels

Today’s earnings calendar is jam-packed. Below are the most actionable charts and price zones:

Whirlpool (WHR)

Whirlpool’s pre-market reaction was brutal—down as much as $80.00 per share (a 15–20% drop). Minor support sits at $80.00.

Day‐trade: Pierce of $80.00 for an intraday bounce
Swing trade: Major support zone between $76.00 and $74.00

Royal Caribbean (RCL)

Despite an earnings beat, a slight revenue miss sent RCL down roughly 6% to $329.00. From April lows, it’s up 115%, pricing in perfection.

Day‐trade resistance: $319.00 (failure here signals lower)
Swing zone: Gap fill/support at $274.00

Novo Nordisk (NVO)

NVO plunged 20% into the pre‐market low of $49.50 and is now around $54.00. Swing traders can eye value near the September 2022 lows.

Swing buy zone: $47.00–$46.00

Spotify (SPOT)

SPOT was vertical into earnings but couldn’t hold gains.

Day‐trade pivot: $61.70
Gap‐fill level: $60.20
Swing support: $56.00–$56.50

SoFi Technologies (SOFI)

One of the few gainers, SOFI trades at $23.17 in the buy‐now‐pay‐later cohort.

Day‐trade short zone: $24.60–$25.00
If cleared, next stop: $28.25

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Under DOJ scrutiny, UNH sits at $267.00.

Day‐trade level: Pierce double‐bottom at $250.00

Boeing (BA)

Slightly up post‐earnings.

Gap fill resistance: $249.00–$250.00 (prime swing‐short zone)

Merck (MRK)

Trading near $80.60.

Support: $75.85 range

PayPal (PYPL)

Pulling back into support.

First support: $71.30–$71.00
Next: $68.00

UPS & Procter & Gamble & JetBlue

UPS: Slightly down, no key levels broken
P&G: Inch higher, intact uptrend
JetBlue: Up modestly but at multi‐year lows—watch for support near current levels

Gareth concluded: “Trading is what I live for… I’m here to give you probability levels—no BS, narratives, or hype. A stock can go up, but if the charts say a pullback is likely, you respect that.”

5. Critical Events Ahead: Tech Earnings, PCE, Jobs & Fed

Hold onto your hats—this week features:

Meta, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft earnings
PCE inflation report
July jobs report
FOMC decision

This dense calendar can fuel volatility. In past Fed‐week patterns, equity swings of ±1–2% are common as traders parse forward guidance against economic data. Position sizes and stop levels should reflect the elevated event risk.

6. Crypto & Commodities: Bear Flags and Bounce Patterns

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is up marginally but trading sideways within a bear flag. Initially, probabilities favored a breakdown (~70%), but failure to break down in time has reduced that to ~60–55%. Still bearish, but watch for a decisive break below the flag’s lower trendline.

Gold & Silver

Gold has bounced slightly after four down days, confirming its breakdown. The former trendline is now major resistance. Expect near‐term downside before any sustained recovery.

Silver remains range‐bound between $39.35 resistance and $37.16 support. Breakout or breakdown here can define the next leg.

Energy Markets

U.S. oil is flirting with negating its bear flag but needs a close above the trendline to shift odds. Natural gas continues its bear‐flag pattern, with downside to $2.99 before the next support zone.

7. Trading Discipline: Probability & Level Respect

Beyond specific levels, the day’s biggest lesson is trading discipline. As Gareth emphasized:

“Use pullbacks to buy more or to short—there’s opportunity everywhere. I’m here to share the same info Goldman Sachs and BlackRock use. You guys do what you want with it.”

Historical studies show that anchoring to predetermined levels—rather than chasing moves—improves edge over time. Markets offer infinite opportunities; missing one trade is immaterial when your process is sound. By calibrating probability levels around key technical factors, traders can maintain emotional control and consistent execution.

Conclusion: Navigating Today’s Crosswinds

Between ambiguous trade‐deal headlines, a tightening wedge on the S&P 500, a surprising dollar pivot, and a flood of earnings and macro data, today’s session exemplifies markets at a crossroads. Recognizing institutional signals—like a rising VIX amid flat prices—alongside clean chart patterns equips traders to allocate risk dynamically.

Whether you’re day‐trading Whirlpool’s $80.00 pivot or swing‐trading Novo Nordisk near $47.00, the key is preparation. Respect technical levels, maintain rigid stops, and let probabilistic setups guide your sizing. As the week unfolds, markets will continue to teach both painful and profitable lessons—but with a robust game plan, traders can navigate the turbulence with confidence.