GAME PLAN REVEALED: 07/31/2025
The markets woke up this morning to fresh catalysts: hotter-than-expected PCE inflation, shifting Fed rate-cut odds, and blowout earnings from mega-caps like Meta and Microsoft. In today’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, unpacked the FedWatch tool’s latest probabilities, introduced a new AI Day Trade Alerts service, and outlined high-probability setups across indices, stocks, crypto, and commodities. Here, we expand on those themes with deeper context, technical analysis, and actionable insights.
1. PCE Inflation and FedWatch Odds
This morning’s PCE report—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—showed headline CPI rising 2.6% year-over-year versus the 2.5% forecast, with a 0.3% month-over-month print in line with expectations.
Such stubborn inflation likely kept the Fed on the sidelines in yesterday’s statement. “The September meeting on the 17th has a 61% chance of no rate cut,” Gareth noted, highlighting the CME FedWatch tool’s update. Historically, the market had fully priced in a September cut; now odds have flipped, and traders are bracing for only one cut by year-end, possibly not until October (but with less than 50% odds) and the next not until January.
Why it matters: When the market’s rate-cut expectations shift, bond yields react immediately—and equity valuations adjust in tandem. The 61% probability of no cut in September reverses yesterday’s equity rally into a late-day sell-off after Powell’s remarks. Monitoring FedWatch probabilities alongside incoming data is key for gauging the likely path of both rates and risk assets.
2. Introducing AI Day Trade Alerts
Gareth unveiled a new service available to the public: AI-powered day-trade alerts for stocks ($149) and crypto ($99). “You can even get both for a discount: $149 for the stocks and $99 for the crypto,” he said. These live, real-time alerts leverage Verified Investing’s proprietary methodology and include transparent track records going back years.
Why it’s noteworthy: As algorithmic strategies proliferate, individual traders seek systematic, data-driven setups. AI alerts can help remove emotion and speed entry/exit decisions. Verified Investing plans swing-trade AI alerts by late 2025 or early 2026, expanding the toolkit for both intraday and multi-day traders.
3. Mega-Cap Earnings Fuel Indices and FOMO
Meta and Microsoft posted blowout results after the bell, triggering short covering and a bullish overnight grind. Futures point to a rise of just under 1% in the S&P 500 and over 1% in the Nasdaq at the open.
“Nvidia is at about $4.5 trillion market cap, Microsoft is at $4 trillion… the combined market cap of the top seven trillion-dollar companies is now greater than that of the S&P of China,” Gareth observed.
This unchecked concentration in mega-caps echoes the late-1990s tech bubble, where a handful of names drove overall gains. FOMO and momentum can extend trends, but the risk of a sharp reversal grows as valuations stretch.
Trading takeaway: Be selective. Identify precise resistance levels in these large-caps and look to fade intraday strength rather than chase breakouts without confirmation.
4. Technical Levels in Indices, Dollar, and Bonds
S&P 500 Trend-line Test
The S&P closed yesterday at 6,363, setting up a gap-up open near 6,421–6,422—the trend line drawn from the 2023 low through April 7, 2025. That 60-point test zone will determine whether the index pauses for profit-taking or extends higher.
U.S. Dollar Approach to Resistance
After rallying on Fed hawkishness, the DXY nears its trend line from the 2023 low into 2024, around 100.85. “I’m bullish on the dollar… look for… maybe reach 100.85, then expect a pullback,” Gareth said. A weaker dollar would support commodities and emerging-market assets.
10-Year Treasury Yield Wedge
The 10-year yield popped on the Fed news but remains trapped in a classic wedge. Wedges often lead to explosive moves upon breakout. While Gareth personally favors a downside resolution, “the charts are the arbiter of truth,” so traders should wait for a decisive break before positioning.
5. High-Probability Setups in Stocks and Crypto
Meta (META)
Meta’s market cap nears $2 trillion after a 10% pop. On the daily chart, resistance sits at the trend line around $780–$790. “If we push above $780 at the open, I’ll start nibbling on a short as a day trade, adding every $3–$4, looking for a rollover,” Gareth explained. Earnings-day fades in mega-caps are common as traders lock in quick gains.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft trades near $557 on its weekly chart, bumping into a parallel of the 2022 bear-market low through April 7, 2025 pivot, extended to the 2021 bull-market high—around $560. This converging resistance is an ideal intraday short level following an 8–9% morning surge.
Chip Stocks: LRCX, QCOM, ARM
Lam Research (LRCX) is under pressure post-earnings but not yet at first-entry level of $86. Qualcomm (QCOM) holds its consolidation zone despite underperforming peers; with a forward P/E of 12–13 versus 30–80 for other chips, QCOM may stabilize or rally. On the other hand, Arm Holdings (ARM) is one of the few chip names down on earnings; “first trade level would be at $138.50,” per Gareth.
Robinhood (HOOD) and Align Technologies (ALGN)
Robinhood’s daily bear flag hasn’t yet generated a viable premarket short. Align Technologies shows a double bottom at $142—Gareth’s first down-sloping trend-line short entry lies around $133.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin has been range-bound for 17 days between $117,000 and $120,000, forming a bear flag that favors downside. “If it closes above $120,000, odds get to 50/50. And if it takes out the topping-tail high at $123,300, it flips bullish on the charts,” Gareth noted. A decisive breach in either direction will likely trigger strong follow-through.
6. Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas
Gold (GC)
Gold sold off on the PCE print but is bouncing. Gareth holds a second-half short targeting $3,150 and would start long positions there, adding more down toward $3,000. His chart history suggests that a shake-out in the low $3,000s often marks the final weak-hand flush before the next bull run.
Silver (SI)
Silver’s sharp decline continues; the buy zone remains at $36, with a stronger entry at the trend-line support near $34.60–$34.70. Traders should scale in waves as silver tests these levels.
Oil (CL) and Natural Gas (NG)
Gareth shorted oil yesterday at his upper resistance level and is already in profit. Natural gas has bounced off technical support four times, creating a coin-flip scenario. “I wouldn’t trade it here; it’s a gamble. If it breaks, my buy level is at the pivot with only two hits,” he advised.
7. The Cost of Trading Education
One of the most candid lessons from Gareth’s 26 years on the trading floor: “Education costs one way or another. I spent over $100,000 learning trading the hard way, losing it in lessons. If I could go back, I’d have spent $10,000 to $20,000 on courses and saved myself $300,000 in losses.”
Market novices often underestimate the value of structured learning. Whether via paid courses or dedicated mentorship, investing in a proven curriculum can greatly shorten the learning curve and preserve capital.
Conclusion: Patience, Probabilities, and Positioning
Today’s GAME PLAN emphasized the shifting probabilities in Fed rate-cut expectations, the perils and potential of mega-cap earnings, and a host of technical levels across markets. As traders, we must remain patient—waiting for charts to confirm breakouts or breakdowns—and position size based on edge rather than emotion. The dance between inflation data, Fed policy, and corporate results will dictate market trajectories into Q3. By blending disciplined technical analysis with a commitment to ongoing education, traders can navigate this uncertain environment with confidence.
