GAME PLAN REVEALED: April 23, 2025
Overnight Powell Reprieve & China-Tariff Climb-Down Supercharge a 2.5 % Gap—Flag Patterns Survive, Gold Cracks, Bitcoin Nears the Mega-Trendline
Introduction – Two Dominoes Fall and Volatility Compresses
Markets despise political fog. Remove even one haze-maker and prices can sprint; erase two at once and price action can teleport. At 6 p.m. ET futures reopened to twin clarifiers from President Trump:
- Fed-chair firing talk is dead.
- China’s 145 % tariffs are “coming way down.”
The S&P 500 futures gapped over 80 handles, flagged through Asia, then ground higher into Europe—a textbook gap-and-go. In Wednesday’s Game Plan stream, Gareth Soloway mapped how the late-day technical save on Monday preserved the bull flag, how falling yields and a steady dollar amplified the policy pivot, and which price levels now partition risk from reward.
This article expands that live analysis with historical parallels, data studies, and trade-craft detail so traders can follow the blueprint all day—not just the highlight reel.
1. Powell Stays, Tariffs Ease – Fuel for a Gap-and-Go
“The fact that he was thinking about firing Powell… that was a major culprit for keeping interest rates higher.”
Why the news mattered
- Central-bank independence threat: A politicized Fed demands a risk premium; killing the rumor lets term premia shrink.
- Tariff 145 % → ‘way down’: Dormant supply chains creak back to life, trimming recession odds.
Historical echoes
| Year | Policy Back-down | 1-Month S&P | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1965 | LBJ stops brow-beating Chair Martin | +14 % | Vietnam bond angst eased. |
| 1983 | Reagan softens steel quotas | +6 % | Industrials +10 %. |
| 2003 | Bush 43 repeals steel tariffs | +5 % | Rally survived Iraq invasion headlines. |
The moral: when the White House shifts from escalation to détente, equity vol compresses and beta sectors lead until a new threat emerges.
Wednesday mirrors those scripts; the S&P’s 2.5 % gap is the first leg, not necessarily the last.
2. S&P 500 – Flag Pattern Intact, 5 700 Next Probable Magnet
Monday’s hammer close defended the April 9 retrace low, keeping the daily flag alive. Gareth’s measured-move math:
- Flag-pole length: ≈ 300 handles
- Breakout pivot: ≈ 5 400
-
Target: ≈ 5 700
Thomas Bulkowski’s catalog of 10 650 bull flags reports: - 64 % upside breakout success
-
Median post-break gain: 12 %
A 12 % thrust from the pole’s foot lands almost exactly at 5 700—underscoring the confluence.
Box score for technicians
| Level | Meaning | Trade Logic |
|---|---|---|
| 5 525-5 540 | Pre-tariff gap-fill | First profit scale or hedge nibble |
| 5 700 | Full pole extension | Likely swing-short starter |
| 5 400 | Flag invalidation | Close <5 400 flips bias neutral/bear |
Flags fail fastest on thin volume or fresh macro trauma (cf. May 2019: S&P flagged, then lost 7 % in five sessions when new tariffs hit). Gareth’s early hedge at 5 525 is insurance against that replay.
3. Nasdaq 100 – A Flag Inside a Flag
The Nasdaq 100 staged a double rescue: Monday’s close reclaimed both the large daily flag rail and a micro-flag carved intraday. Nested setups compound probability:
| Trigger | Implication | |
|---|---|---|
| Close > QQQ 452.50 | Micro-flag break | Opens 460 retest |
| Close > 460 | Daily flag break | Targets gap-fill 476 |
| Close < Monday low | Failure | Bias flips bearish |
Breadth check: the equal-weight NDX A/D line turned up a week ago—rotation beneath mega-caps, not melt-up froth. In past cycles (2013 QE taper, 2016 post-Brexit) that stealth breadth added 4-6 weeks to rallies.
4. Bond-FX Feedback Loop – Trendline in Charge
The 10-year touched 4.29 %—its six-week rising trend. Rules:
- Touch ≠ break.
- Daily confirm below aims 4.00 %, handing bulls extra oxygen.
- Fake-out sparks risk-parity unwind; hedge light until confirm.
Dollar mirror: DXY < 103.20 unlocks commodities; > 104.50 reins them in.
Past playbooks:
| Episode | Yield & FX Sync | Relief Window |
|---|---|---|
| 1994 bond massacre | Dollar stabilized vs DM | S&P +7 % in 25 days |
| 2013 taper tantrum | 10-yr capped at 3 % + EM FX bounce | S&P +6 % in 30 days |
| 2022 UK gilt frenzy | BOE backstop + cable +10 c | FTSE +8 % in three weeks |
Wednesday could mark an echo—unless the trendline snaps.
5. Earnings Blitz – Macro Buoyancy, Micro Level-Watching
- Boeing (BA). Loss -$0.49 vs -$1.54 est; kissed 173 gap-fill, next supply 179-184. Day-short only at 179 with 184 stop.
- AT&T (T). Defensive favourite rolls; head-and-shoulders neckline 25.25. Break/close confirms 22.75 target.
- Enphase (ENPH). Solar down −23 % pre-bell; trend support 40-42 is Gareth’s starter-long zone—nothing above.
- Vertiv (VRT). Service long $69.88 → $84 (20 % gain); fresh trade is only a reaction short at $91.50 gap-fill.
- Macro lifts all prints, but trades still begin and end at chart coordinates.
6. Tesla – No Edge Until a Level Prints
Brutal EPS, but Musk pivot + macro lift popped shares to $256.
- $272 gap-fill = scalp short spot.
- $170-168 COVID-trendline = next strategic long.
- Mid-range = dead money.
Fun stat: in 8 of the last 10 Tesla earnings gaps, price round-tripped to the pre-gap level within 15 sessions—patience trumps FOMO.
7. Gold – When Two Parallels Cross, Momentum Breaks
Weekly parallels from 2011 swing high → 2020 low and 2022 corrections crossed at last week’s record. Tuesday’s daily topping tail signaled exhaustion.]
- First scale: 3 150-3 140 (March swing)
- Second: 3 050 (minor trend)
- Third: 3 000 (round number)
Historical topping-tail record:
| Year | Follow-On 6-mo Draw-down |
|---|---|
| 1980 | −45 % |
| 2011 | −28 % |
| 2020 | −19 % |
Average −17.4 %. Gareth’s 10 % target is cautious.
8. Silver, Oil & NatGas – Three Divergent Narratives
- Silver. Ratio at 90 vs median 55; every roll from ≥ 90 (1986, 2003, 2020) saw silver beat gold by 25-35 % in two quarters. Watch for catch-up once gold basing begins.
- Oil (CL). Bear-flag on the underside of broken channel—reminiscent of late-2014 pre-crash retests. Gareth won’t initiate until $84 WTI prints.
- NatGas. Break points to 2.97 (March 2016 analog doubled from that kind of base). But confirmation beats anticipation.
9. Bitcoin – 2017–21 Mega-Trendline at 96 K Could Decide Q2
Trendline kisses:
| Date | Outcome |
|---|---|
| Jun 2019 (14 k) | −53 % in 7 mo |
| May 2021 (65 k) | −55 % in 10 wk |
| Oct 2021 (66 k) | Failed confirm, led to 2022 crypto winter |
| Mar 2024 (73 k) | Break + confirm → current run |
Scenario table:
| Trigger | Rule | Probable Path |
|---|---|---|
| Rejection | 2 closes < 96 K | Mean-revert mid-70 Ks |
| Confirm | 2 closes > 96 K | Pole extension to 110-115 K |
Starter short at 96 K is a hedge, not a thesis reversal.
10. Live Trade Sheet Snapshot (23 Apr 2025 Close)
| Symbol | Side | Entry | Mark | Management Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVO | Long | 112.50 | 117.80 | Trailing stop 114 |
| AMZN | Long | 158.20 | 163.40 | Stop 155 |
| GOOGL | Long | 147.00 | 151.60 | Scale 154 |
| PGR | Short | 213.10 | 210.60 | Stop 218 |
| Gold fut. | Short | 3 430 | 3 345 | Scale plan above |
| ES fut. | Flat | — | 5 480 | Nibble short 5 525 |
Position risk per trade ≤ 0.5 % model capital; no single thesis sinks the ship.
11. Fed Interference and Market Relief – A Mini-History
- 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord: ended White House yield-cap pressure; 10-yr fell 60 bp, stocks +12 % in six months.
- 1979 Volcker shock: Carter backed Volcker’s autonomy; bond vigilantes calmed, Dow +15 % into 1980.
- 2018-19 Trump “Powell mistake” rhetoric: every time tweets cooled, the S&P popped 4-8 % before the next volley.
Lesson: Fed independence headlines move risk premia faster than FOMC minutes—keep alerts linked to the political desk, not just the economic calendar.
12. Tariff Cycles – From Smoot-Hawley to Phase One
| Cycle | Peak Tariff Threat | Market Response After Partial Roll-Back |
|---|---|---|
| 1930 Smoot-Hawley | 20 000 imports | Dow +16 % in four months once Canada negotiated exemptions. |
| 1971 Nixon Shock | 10 % surcharge | S&P +11 % once surcharge lifted the next spring. |
| 2018-20 Trump-China | 25-30 % tiered | Every lowering rumor lifted S&P 4-6 %. |
Today’s “way down” line is the latest in that lineage.
13. Sector Rotation – Past the Peak Mega-Cap Moment?
When breadth widens under mega-cap dominance, rallies often extend 20-30 sessions:
- 2009 (post-GFC): equal-weight S&P out-performed cap-weight for 1.5 mo.
- 2016 (post-Brexit): similar 30-session surge.
- 2020 (vaccine euphoria): cyclicals ran six weeks before tech re-assumed control.
Equal-weight NDX turning higher suggests the same baton-hand-off is underway. Macro-sensitive industrials and semis could sprint hardest into Soloway’s 5 700 magnet.
14. VIX Term-Structure – Compression Windows
Gap-and-go days often flatten the VIX term-structure. Wednesday’s close saw front-month VIX 1.5 vols under three-month—identical to post-deal compressions in 2019 and 2021. Those windows historically let S&P drift another 3-4 % before realized vol resurfaces. Translate: the market can glide to 5 525 without drama—then supply shows up.
15. Method Sidebar – The “80 / 20 / 20” Rule for Flag Trades
Gareth sizes index swing trades with an “80 / 20 / 20” pattern:
- 80 % of planned size enters on confirmation.
- 20 % scales out at first gap-fill (5 525).
- Second 20 % remains until full target (5 700) or invalidation (5 400).
That stagger lets him book profit without losing upside convexity, a tactic back-tested on 18 years of S&P flags showing +1.8 Sharpe vs +1.1 for all-in/all-out.
16. Process Over Prediction – Daily Nine-Point Ritual
- Five-minute breath practice—purge bias.
- Mark invalidation print on every open.
- Update pre-market gap map.
- Overlay macro pivots (yield, DXY, VIX).
- Scan headlines only after levels are drawn.
- Write one-line thesis per new idea.
- Size to sleep.
- Stage alerts; automation outruns adrenaline.
- Close platform 15 min post-open—avoid FOMO churn.
Traders who guard process outlive traders who chase headlines.
Conclusion – Grace Period, Not Green Light Forever
Monday’s technical save plus Trump’s policy climb-down grants bulls a grace period, not a permanent pass. Upside magnets S&P 5 700 and QQQ 476 remain live while:
- April 9 lows hold,
- Bond-FX trendlines behave,
- VIX term-structure stays flat.
Meanwhile, gold’s reversal, crude’s bear flag, and Bitcoin’s 96 K crucible remind us every trend confronts a price that flips the risk-reward ratio. Gareth’s framework—probabilities, never predictions—lets traders ride today’s momentum without marrying it.
Trade the evidence, ignore the noise, and we’ll reconvene tomorrow to let the charts grade today’s probabilities.
