GAME PLAN REVEALED: 07/28/2025

Welcome to a week that promises to be nothing short of monumental for the financial markets. With a gauntlet of top-tier economic data releases and earnings reports from the biggest names in technology, traders are bracing for a surge in volatility. In this morning's GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, laid out the critical roadmap for navigating the days ahead. He highlighted that for the prepared trader, this volatility isn't a threat—it's a landscape rich with opportunity.

This week's economic calendar is a heavyweight lineup: Q2 GDP on Tuesday, ADP and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, PCE data and jobless claims on Thursday, and the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday. Interspersed with this are earnings from titans like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. As Gareth aptly put it, "get ready, hold on to your belts here. We are going to have a wild trading week, and that to me is great for opportunity."

This article will expand on the key insights from today’s show, diving deeper into the technical friction points in the S&P 500, the critical setups in major stocks and commodities, and the disciplined mindset required to trade them effectively.

The Market’s Message of Fatigue

Overnight market action provided a perfect microcosm of the current market environment. Following news of a European trade deal, futures initially surged, only to see those gains steadily erode throughout the overnight session. This price action tells a story that goes beyond a single headline.

"Every trade deal that is announced, you're getting diminishing returns," Gareth noted. "Part of that is the fact that the stock market is higher each time... what that tells us is the market is getting a little bit tired."

This concept of diminishing returns is crucial. When a market requires increasingly positive news just to maintain its altitude, it’s often a sign of underlying exhaustion. While this doesn't signal an imminent reversal, it does suggest that the bullish momentum is waning and the market is becoming more vulnerable to negative catalysts.

This vulnerability is reflected directly on the S&P 500 daily chart. A critical upward-sloping trendline, originating from the April 7th lows, has been broken. While the market has continued to grind higher since, this break represents a structural shift. Previously, this trendline acted as a safety net. Now, that net is gone. This puts the market in what Gareth describes as a "position of weakness," meaning that if a sell-off were to begin, there is no immediate technical support to cushion the fall. The first major support level he identifies is around the $6,000 mark—a substantial 400-point drop from current levels, representing a correction of roughly 7%.

A Confluence of Resistance in the S&P 500

While the support structure below has weakened, a formidable wall of resistance is forming above. The job of a technical trader is to identify these key inflection points where supply is likely to overwhelm demand. Gareth’s analysis reveals a powerful confluence of technical resistance for the S&P 500 right around the $6,440 level.

This isn't just a random number; it's a zone where multiple, independent technical indicators converge, creating a high-probability area for a potential reversal. Let's break down the components:

1. Pivot-to-Pivot Trendline: A line connecting key pivot highs on the daily chart points directly to this area, indicating a historical ceiling.
2. Parallel Channel Analysis: By drawing a trendline connecting the October 2023 low with the April 7th, 2024 low, and then creating a parallel copy of that line and placing it at the previous all-time high, we see it projects perfectly to this same $6,440 zone.

When multiple, non-correlated technical tools identify the same price level, the probability of that level being significant increases dramatically. The market could very well see one final push into this resistance zone this week, and how it reacts will be telling. A sharp rejection from this level would validate the analysis and could be the catalyst for the corrective move down toward the $6,000 support area.

Tech Giants at a Technical Crossroads

With earnings on deck, several mega-cap tech stocks are approaching their own critical technical levels, setting the stage for potentially explosive moves.

Microsoft (MSFT): Ahead of its earnings on Wednesday, Microsoft is trading near a major long-term resistance trendline. This is the same line that has capped rallies and initiated significant pullbacks multiple times in the past. As Gareth explained, technical analysis is the study of investor psychology reflected in chart patterns. If history is any guide, the odds favor a correction off this level, and earnings could be the trigger.

Meta (META): The chart of Meta presents a classic bearish setup. The stock has formed a clear double top around the $750 level, a powerful resistance pattern. More intriguingly, it is in the process of carving out a potential Head and Shoulders formation—a preliminary left shoulder and head are visible. If the pattern completes with a right shoulder and breaks its neckline, the measured move target points down to approximately $635. The earnings report on Wednesday will be pivotal. A pop on earnings that takes the price above the head of the pattern (above $750) would negate the bearish setup.

Tesla (TSLA): Following its earnings-induced drop last week, Tesla is consolidating within a massive wedge pattern. "Wedge patterns essentially, they tell us that price is consolidating," Gareth explained. "You're compressing a spring. And the idea is that... whichever way it breaks, you get a big move in that direction." For now, Tesla remains contained, but traders should be on high alert for a breakout from this pattern, which would likely unleash a powerful and sustained move.

Palantir (PLTR): As a case study for a shorter-term trade, Palantir is flashing multiple warning signs. The stock is described as "extremely overbought" and is running into the top of a parallel channel that has consistently produced pullbacks. Gareth is watching the $62 level for a potential day trade short, citing the overstretched technicals, negative divergences, and a valuation that "makes no sense."

Signals From Bitcoin, Metals, and Energy

The analysis extends beyond equities, as other asset classes provide crucial corroborating signals.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): The world’s largest cryptocurrency continues to chop within a bear flag pattern. The entire power of this bearish setup is held by a single price point: the high of the topping tail candle at approximately $123,300. If Bitcoin can trade and close above that level, the bearish pattern is negated, and a move toward $130,000 becomes probable. If it fails, the bearish pressure of the flag and the topping tail remains, and a move to the downside is the higher probability outcome.

Gold and Silver: Gold has broken below a key consolidation area and is looking for confirmation. A confirmed breakdown would open the door to its first major support target at $3,150. Silver, meanwhile, continues to respect a major long-term upsloping trendline as resistance around the $39.20-$39.30 area. Until it can decisively break above and confirm, that line remains the ceiling. First support on a pullback sits near $37.15.

Oil and Natural Gas: Energy markets are also displaying bearish patterns. Crude oil rallied today but ran directly into the underbelly of its broken bear flag pattern, which now acts as resistance around $67. Natural gas is also forming a bear flag after breaking support, giving it a slightly negative bias with downside support targets at $2.99 and, more significantly, at $2.63.

"No BS, Just Charts": The Philosophy of High-Probability Trading

Perhaps the most important lesson from today's GAME PLAN is the underlying philosophy that governs this entire analytical process. It's about removing ego, emotion, and narrative, and focusing purely on the data the charts provide.

"My job as a technician is to always look at the levels with the highest probability of success," Gareth stated. He emphasized that he is willing to pass on setups that are only 50/50 or 60/40, holding out for the A-grade opportunities. "I really want those high 75, 80% success rate where when you analyze the chart correctly, when you use the methodology... you really can get your win rate up to 75 to 80%."

Achieving this level of proficiency allows a trader to operate on what Gareth calls "autopilot." The decision-making process becomes objective: if a trade setup meets the predefined criteria, you take it. If it doesn't, you don't. Feelings, gut instincts, and hype are left at the door. This is the essence of the Verified Investing motto: "No BS, just charts."

"It's when we focus on the hype and the narratives and all this other nonsense, that's where we get skewed and we start buying at highs just before reversals... or selling at lows just before the rally," he concluded.

Conclusion: Navigating the Crucible

This week is a crucible for the markets, testing the resolve of bulls and bears alike. The confluence of major economic data and pivotal tech earnings guarantees a volatile environment. However, volatility is only dangerous to the unprepared.

The technical picture painted today is one of an exhausted market grinding toward a major wall of resistance, even as its underlying support structure has weakened. Key individual stocks and commodities are at clear inflection points, offering well-defined, high-probability setups for those who know what to look for.

Success this week will not be found in predicting the news, but in reacting to the price action at these pre-identified levels. By adhering to a disciplined, probability-based approach, traders can confidently navigate the turbulence and capitalize on the opportunities that emerge.