TRADING GAME PLAN REVEALED: 09/10/2025

In this morning’s TRADING GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, walked us through a series of market-moving events—from a surprise Producer Price Index (PPI) print to Oracle’s jaw-dropping earnings pop. With the Fed poised to cut rates next Wednesday at 2 p.m., traders are watching chart patterns across equities, commodities, and crypto for clues on where to position. Below, we expand on the key takeaways, offering historical context, technical insights, and the psychological discipline required to navigate what may be a classic late-cycle rally or the early stages of a bubble.

1. PPI Data Sparks Fed Cut Runway

The Producer Price Index came in at –0.1% versus the expected +3% on both headline and core readings, a stunning miss to the downside.

“Are these real numbers? Are they going to be revised later on? We don’t know,” Gareth cautioned, underscoring the uncertainty behind official data. Yet markets reacted decisively, pricing in three Fed rate cuts by year-end and giving the September 2 p.m. meeting a green light.

– Yesterday’s job-data revision shaved 911,000 positions off last year’s tally, another bearish signal markets largely ignored.

– A string of weaker prints—PPI and jobs—creates a clear runway for the Fed to cut rates next Wednesday.

Historical Context: In past easing cycles, such as 1995–1996 and 2001–2002, producer inflation readings flipped markets from cautious to exuberant. Traders who recognized the shift early were rewarded on equities and bonds alike.

2. Treading within Wedges: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Levels

Futures kicked off with a roughly 30-point pop in the S&P 500, yet the index remains trapped in a tightening wedge:

• Support: 6,475
  
• Resistance: 6,585

“Historically, that line has triggered pullbacks,” Gareth noted. A close above 6,585 could signal a breakout, but until then, each test of resistance has invited profit-taking.

On the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ):

• Opening mark: 583.33 (near all-time highs)
  
• Key trend-line support: 564–565
  
• Parallel resistance (February high to recent peaks): ~591

Parallels in wedge formations often reinforce trader psychology. When both support and resistance trend-lines run in parallel, they create self-fulfilling layers of buying and selling pressure. Watch the first hour’s volume—retail excitement from PPI and Oracle earnings may bring institutions back into the fray.

3. Oracle’s Meteoric Rally: AI Hype or Bubble Signal?

Oracle surged over 30% on its earnings report—the largest one-day gain since 1999. That year marked the peak of the dot-com bubble, prompting Gareth to ask: “Could we be in the same scenario here with AI stocks?”

Technical Reaction:

• Opened near $322; currently trading at $321.56
  
• Short-term pullback target: $275 (upslope trend-line support)

Mega-caps often fade after big gaps: Broadcom gapped 15% and faded, Microsoft gapped 9% and collapsed. Probability favors at least a $5–$10 intraday pullback on Oracle—an ideal scalp for day traders. Over the next couple of weeks, a deeper retracement to $275 would align price with the long-term trend.

Historical Note: Firms touting massive backlog orders date back to the 1999–2000 bubble, when suppliers double- and triple-ordered “just in case.” Today’s AI supply chain stories echo the same cautionary tale.

4. Commodities and Precious Metals Poised for Reversal

Gold delivered a classic daily topping tail after new highs, reversing sharply to close at session lows. Until gold closes above $3,675, treat its pullback toward $3,500 as the next support. GDX (gold miners) was stopped out yesterday—Gareth exited at profit—and may see resistance again near $68.

Silver remains range-bound between $40 and $49, lacking follow-through despite gold’s rally. When gold outperforms silver, it often signals risk-off flows rather than industrial demand.

Oil’s slight three-day uptick looks more like a bear-flag relief bounce after a steep decline. Natural gas sits idle; only a rally toward $3.50–3.60 would warrant a short. Discipline dictates waiting for clear entry zones rather than chasing small moves.

5. Cryptos and Microcap Mania: Bubble Conditions Brewing

Bitcoin continues to test its long-term downtrend line. A clean close above the breakout would target roughly $117,000, but until then, it remains capped. Ethereum’s inability to breakout alongside Bitcoin raises caution: divergent crypto performance can presage broader risk-asset weakness.

Meanwhile, microcaps piling into Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana have ignited 2,700% spikes (QMMM Holdings jumped to $305 then crashed to $74). Gareth warned: “Be extremely careful; these moves signal bubble conditions.” History reminds us of similar frenzies in 1999–2000, 2007–2008, and 2021.

6. The Trader’s Edge: Discipline, Profit-Taking, and Patience

During volatile sessions, it’s tempting to chase big gaps and breakouts. But as Gareth emphasized: “You don’t need a full month of decline; a $5–$10 pullback…is more than enough.”

Key takeaways for disciplined traders:

• Lock in gains on high-conviction positions (GDX exit)
  
• Short mega-cap gaps into known fade patterns (Oracle, NVDA near $180)
  
• Respect multi-factor support and resistance (GameStop gap at $28.50)
  
• Avoid overtrading in bubbled sectors; wait for technical confirmation

Psychology Matters: Keeping ego in check and following pre-defined levels preserves capital and sanity. As market structures shift, the patient trader always finds the next high-probability setup.

Conclusion: Navigating Late-Cycle Extremes

With PPI at –0.1%, a 911,000-job revision, and Oracle’s biggest surge since 1999, markets sit at a crossroads between a late-cycle rally and bubble excess. Key chart levels—6,475/6,585 on the S&P 500, 564–565/591 on QQQ, $275 on Oracle—offer clear guideposts for entries and exits. Commodities, precious metals, and crypto each tell different stories, underscoring the importance of multi-asset analysis.

As the Fed gears up for its first cut next Wednesday at 2 p.m., traders who combine technical discipline with macro awareness will be best positioned to capture gains and limit losses. Whether markets resolve higher or snap back, the framework laid out today provides a roadmap for what may be the most exciting trading environment of the year.