TRADING GAME PLAN REVEALED: 09/09/2025
In this morning’s TRADING GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, walked viewers through the latest developments in equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. With key inflation readings (PPI tomorrow, CPI Thursday) looming, Gareth emphasized the importance of chart-based analysis and probability over narrative-driven opinions. Today’s article expands on his technical breakdowns, historical context, and trading psychology lessons, helping you navigate today’s markets with greater clarity.
Market Overview: Quiet Before the Inflation Storm
Equity futures opened almost flat, reflecting a subdued backdrop after last week’s post-jobs report reversal. Gareth noted that Friday’s rally on the jobs beat was followed by heavy institutional selling, then an unusually quiet Monday with vanishing volume. As he put it:
"Whether or not that was because they didn’t have enough volume to unload into, we don’t know yet. We have to wait for the CPI data."
With today’s 10 a.m. jobs-data revisions and tomorrow’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI reports, traders are bracing for signs of potential stagflation. Until then, the S&P futures drift just above breakeven, reflecting a market in tentative balance.
S&P 500 Technicals: Wedge Pattern and RSI Divergence
On the daily S&P 500 chart, a contracting wedge pattern has formed between an ascending top trend line and a rising support line. Wedges often resolve with a downside break roughly 70% of the time, but confirmation requires multiple factors.
Gareth added the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to illustrate negative divergence:
"On Friday, price gapped to a higher high and then reversed, but the RSI high was lower. That’s your negative divergence."
RSI peaks above 70 signal overbought conditions, but readings alone don’t dictate trades—divergences do. When price makes higher highs while RSI makes lower highs, it warns of waning institutional participation. With the wedge tightening, traders should watch for a clear break below support—likely triggering a faster decline.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): New Trend Line to Watch
The QQQ chart shows a similar negative RSI divergence, confirming weakening internals:
"Price made a higher high, but the RSI pivoted lower."
After breaching and recapturing the old parallel channel, Gareth identified a more precise trend line from June highs through August and September 2 lows. A break and close below this line would invalidate the recent uptrend and suggest further downside ahead. Traders can monitor this line for the next sell signal in tech-heavy indices.
U.S. Dollar: Decade-Long Trend Line in Focus
The U.S. dollar index is inching lower toward a major trend-line zone dating back to the 2008 financial crisis. Outside of COVID, 2008 remains the largest market event in two decades, and lines spanning such events carry significant weight. Gareth warned:
"If the dollar breaks and confirms below here, it would mark the start of something bigger—possibly a decade-long decline back toward the ’08 lows."
A sustained dollar breakdown could boost commodities and non-U.S. assets but may also signal broader risk appetite shifts.
Bond Yields: 10-Year Yield Fails to Confirm Breakout
The 10-year Treasury yield briefly spiked to 4.077% yesterday but lacked follow-through. Currently pulling back, a renewed break above 4.077% could nullify the pullback and target 3.9% support on the downside. With the Fed meeting scheduled for September 17 and fresh CPI/PPI data imminent, yields remain at a critical juncture—impacting equities and fixed-income flows.
Individual Stock Setups
Robinhood (HOOD): Post-S&P Inclusion Mania
Robinhood shares exploded higher on its inclusion in the S&P 500—an outsized 16% move compared to the historical 5% average. Gareth explained the drivers:
"Retail is buying zero-day and weekly calls way out of the money… forcing institutions to hedge by buying the underlying."
This gamma squeeze dynamic echoes GameStop 2021 and often reverses when the short-dated options expire. With the stock near a double top, Gareth expects a retreat to $100, eventually breaking below that level in coming weeks.
American Express (AXP): Negative RSI Divergence
American Express also displays a negative RSI divergence—higher price highs, lower RSI highs—alongside a trend-line break. This technical combination signals elevated downside risk. Traders should watch for failed rallies into the old trend line as potential shorting opportunities.
Crypto Mania: Altcoin Microcaps Running Wild
While Bitcoin held resistance (covered below), “altcoin” mania has shifted into microcap stocks that announced small crypto bets:
- MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases
- Bit Mining’s 3,800% Ethereum-related spike
- OCTO’s 5,500% Worldcoin-driven intraday move (now +3,000%)
- Calibre Companies (CWD) running 2,600% premarket on Chainlink accumulation
"If we put $100,000 into X crypto, our stock goes up 3,000%. Crazy. Is it a market top? Yes—this is a sign of mania."
When tiny-float stocks decouple from fundamentals by chasing “reserve currency” narratives, it often marks a speculative peak. Caution is paramount as these microcap moves can unwind rapidly.
Bitcoin: Mildly Bullish Near Term
Bitcoin was rejected at resistance yesterday but has formed a small inverse head and shoulders formation. Gareth is “about 50-50” on a breakout, slightly favoring an upside move, especially if equities hold firm:
"Bitcoin’s chart is mildly bullish near term."
Near-term traders can use the inverse head and shoulders pattern and adjacent support/resistance levels on the chart to guide entries and exits.
Commodities Update
Gold and Gold Miners (GDX)
GDX has been on Gareth’s radar for a pullback. He’s currently long with an average cost of $67.31, trading around $67.60, and is down $16,000. Having banked $50,000–$75,000 on a prior swing, he remains nimble:
"If GDX moves $1–$2 in my favor today, I’ll take it off the table—it’d be $50,000–$100,000, and that’s enough."
Gold itself may pull back toward the $3,800 level on a trend-line reaction before resuming its uptrend. Traders can scale in or out around these reaction levels for optimal risk management.
Silver
Silver continues to lag gold despite a breakout attempt. Historically, silver follows gold’s lead—so a sharp gold rally could reignite silver. Watch for confirmation above key resistance zones before committing.
Oil and Natural Gas
Oil saw a small bounce but remains trapped between established support and resistance—ideal conditions for range-bound strategies or waiting for a decisive break. Natural gas is attempting to reclaim former resistance as support; a confirmed move above could set up a short once it fails to hold.
Trading Psychology: Discipline and Probability
In the closing segment, Gareth shared his early-career struggles—turning $10,000 into a $50,000 prop-firm account, then losing it all while juggling three side jobs. His key lesson:
"Charts give us a high-probability edge, letting us make consistent money."
He urged traders to ignore mainstream narratives and social-media hype, focus on charts, and maintain emotional discipline. Whether day trading, swing trading, or investing, understanding that charts are imperfect guides but superior to biased opinions is critical for long-term success.
Conclusion: Preparing for Volatility
With wedge patterns in major indices, dollar and yield trend lines at inflection points, speculative mania in microcaps, and critical inflation data on deck, the next several days could bring significant volatility. By:
- Watching for confirmed trend-line breaks
- Respecting RSI divergences and chart patterns
- Managing position sizes based on probability
- Maintaining trading discipline amid noise
Traders can position for both the breakout and breakdown scenarios. Remember, mastery comes from process discipline, not perfection. Charts will continue to teach tough lessons—stay humble, stay curious, and let probability guide your decisions.
