My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 10/30/2025: S&P 500 Inflection Point, Fed Hawkish Cut, Tech Earnings Divergence, Trade Talk Disappointment

The last 24 hours have delivered a whirlwind of market-moving events, creating a potent cocktail of volatility and uncertainty. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, but Chairman Jerome Powell’s hawkish commentary sent an initial chill through the markets. This was immediately followed by a dramatic divergence in big tech earnings, with Meta plummeting over 10% while Alphabet soared. Capping it all off was a highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi that delivered platitudes but no substantive trade deal. As Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, detailed in this morning’s My Trading Game Plan, these events have brought the market to a critical inflection point where multiple topping signals are flashing red.

A Trifecta of "Sell the News" Events

Markets thrive on anticipation, and the run-up to this week was fueled by expectations of positive outcomes from three major catalysts: a dovish Fed, blowout tech earnings, and a comprehensive U.S.-China trade deal. The reality, however, fell far short of the optimistic script. This created a classic "sell the news" environment, where the market reverses after a long-awaited event finally occurs.

Gareth explained the dynamic perfectly: “The markets were pricing in a Goldilocks scenario and they're not getting it. They're not getting it from that meeting. They're not getting it from Trump and earnings.”

First, the Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, but Powell’s press conference signaled that another cut in December was not guaranteed, injecting a dose of hawkish reality into a market hungry for accommodation. Second, while Alphabet posted strong results, the shocking 10% pre-market drop in Meta and a softer Microsoft report shattered the narrative of invincible tech dominance. Finally, the Trump-Xi meeting produced positive rhetoric but left the average tariff rate on China at a staggering 47%, a far cry from the comprehensive deal the market’s recent rally had priced in. Each of these events, on its own, could move markets; together, they formed a powerful trifecta that has put the bulls on the defensive.

The S&P 500's Multi-Year Inflection Point

Amid the flurry of news, the most important signal may be coming from the charts themselves, specifically the weekly chart of the S&P 500. A massive parallel trendline, drawn from the COVID lows of March 2020 and connecting subsequent major lows, has been acting as a ceiling for the market. For the past few days, the index has been piercing this monumental resistance level, and the key question now is where it will close by Friday.

This isn't just another line on a chart; its significance is rooted in its timeframe. As Gareth emphasized, the hierarchy of technical analysis places greater weight on longer-term charts. “The bigger the timeframe, the more important those levels are and the more powerful those levels are. So when you're talking about a weekly chart here and you're going back literally to March of 2020… that my friends is major in terms of a level.”

A decisive rejection from this multi-year trendline could signal that a significant top is in place, potentially ushering in the 5-10% correction that has so far remained elusive. Conversely, a strong weekly close above it would be a major technical victory for the bulls. The battle at this level is the single most important technical story to watch as the week concludes.

Anatomy of a Market Top: Multiple Warning Signs Emerge

Beyond the critical resistance on the S&P 500, a confluence of other classic topping signals is emerging, suggesting that the recent euphoria may be reaching its peak. These signs point to widespread optimism and stretched valuations, conditions that often precede market pullbacks.

First, retail investor sentiment has become "extremely bullish." Historically, when the crowd becomes universally optimistic, it serves as a powerful contrarian indicator, as there are few buyers left to push prices higher.

Second, the market witnessed major psychological milestones this week. NVIDIA briefly touched a $5 trillion valuation, while Apple tagged the $4 trillion mark. These enormous, round numbers often act as psychological anchors where investors who have ridden the wave up decide to take profits. As Gareth noted, this is a fundamental aspect of market psychology: “That's psychology. That's human psychology 101 when you're in trading.” The celebration of these milestones can paradoxically mark a near-term peak.

Finally, beneath the surface of the major indices, there is significant carnage. While a handful of AI-related stocks have propped up the market, numerous other companies are getting "absolutely annihilated" on earnings. Chipotle, Carvana, and FMC all experienced devastating post-earnings drops of 20-30% or more. This internal weakness reveals a market that is far less healthy than the headline index levels suggest, with leadership narrowing to just a few mega-cap names.

The Great Tech Divergence: Meta's Flashback vs. Google's Redemption

Nowhere was the market’s shifting sentiment more apparent than in the divergent reactions to earnings from Meta and Alphabet.

Meta is getting crushed, trading down at $674 USD from a previous close of $752 USD. The sell-off is accelerating the bearish Head and Shoulders pattern that Gareth has been highlighting for weeks, putting the stock on a path toward its calculated target of around $652 USD. While a $16 billion tax bill was a factor, the real catalyst for the drop was psychological. “Zuckerberg again said, Hey, we're going to ramp up even more spending on AI. And people are having visions and flashbacks of the Metaverse,” Gareth explained. Investors, scarred by the billions spent on a Metaverse vision that has yet to materialize, are now fearful of a similar capital bonfire in the name of AI, punishing the stock accordingly.

In stark contrast, Alphabet has exploded to the upside, trading near $295 USD. The stock benefited from lowered expectations, as the narrative for months has been that its search dominance was under threat from AI. With its Gemini AI performing well and search remaining strong, the company easily surpassed these muted expectations. The stock is now approaching the key psychological level of $300 USD, which Gareth expects it to briefly pierce before potentially fading. This tale of two tech titans illustrates a critical lesson: in earnings season, expectations matter just as much, if not more, than the results themselves.

Intermarket Analysis: Clues from the Dollar, Yields, and Bitcoin

The turmoil in the equity market is being reflected and confirmed by action in other key asset classes. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rallying on the Fed’s hawkish tone, approaching a significant resistance zone between 100.5 and 100.9. Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield is popping higher, moving back above a key trendline and signaling potential headwinds for stocks. Should yields continue to spike, major resistance sits at 4.67%.

Bitcoin is providing another crucial piece of the puzzle. The cryptocurrency recently broke above a key technical level, exciting bulls, but it failed to hold those gains and is now trading back below at $108,000 USD. This failure to confirm the breakout is a significant bearish signal. Gareth has consistently warned about the importance of this confirmation, a concept he calls a “game changer for us as investors and traders.” Without it, the breakout was a trap, and he maintains a target for Bitcoin between $93,000 and $95,000 USD. This weakness in a primary risk-on asset aligns with the growing caution seen in equities.

Gold's Resilience: A Safe Haven Test

Amid the risk-off sentiment, gold is displaying intriguing strength. While the metal initially dropped on the Fed’s hawkishness, it has since caught a bid. What makes this bounce particularly noteworthy is that it is occurring while the U.S. dollar is also rallying. Typically, gold and the dollar have an inverse relationship. When they move in the same direction, it often signals a powerful underlying theme.

“The dollar being stronger today is very interesting. And that again tells me there is a safe haven aspect to the buying in gold,” Gareth observed. This suggests that investors are not just buying gold as an anti-dollar trade but are actively seeking it out as a true safe haven amid the turbulence in the stock market. While Gareth still anticipates a potential move down to his next technical target, the character of this buying is a bullish long-term signal for the metal, demonstrating its enduring role as a store of value during times of uncertainty.

Conclusion: Navigating the Volatility

The market is now balanced on a knife's edge. A confluence of underwhelming macro events, flashing technical warning signs, and extreme sentiment readings suggests that a period of corrective price action may be imminent. The battle being waged at the S&P 500’s multi-year trendline will likely dictate the market’s direction for the coming weeks.

With earnings from Apple and Amazon due after the bell, the volatility is set to continue, providing what could be the "icing on the cake" for either a market breakdown or a dramatic reversal. For disciplined traders, this environment is ripe with opportunity. The wild price swings in individual stocks create numerous setups for those who wait for their levels and manage risk appropriately. As the market digests this perfect storm of news and technical pressure, a patient, probability-based approach will be the key to successfully navigating the challenging and opportune days ahead.